Some observant people are beginning to suspect that not everything is going perfectly well with the mighty Western Empire headquartered in Washington, DC. Some of the more excitable of these observers are quick to claim that what they are witnessing are early stages of collapse. But these voices are few and far between, while the rest of the observant observers still feel compelled to follow this bit of mental discipline:
1. The mighty Western Empire is mighty. This is a tautology and therefore self-evident, brooks no argument and requires no further proof.
2. Dominating the whole world requires an absolutely astounding level of intelligence. That's because the world is big and complicated.
3. If the mighty Western Empire appears to do something stunningly stupid, then that's because we ourselves are too stupid to understand the subtlety of its intelligence that's masquerading itself as rank stupidity; see point 2 above as to why.
4. If the mighty Western Empire appears to engage in what seems like a never-ending sequence of spectacularly dumb and self-destructive moves, then that iteratively reduces to a repeated application of point 3 above.
But then there is the radical, extremist viewpoint: that the mighty Western Empire has already collapsed and continues to exist merely by physical and mental inertia while its leaders try to keep up appearances and postpone the inevitable in order to more thoroughly feather their individual nests. These conspiratorially-minded extremists have the gall imagine that there is no astoundingly brilliant and subtle strategic master plan beyond individual players' efforts to keep getting while the getting is good—or something equally radical and extremist along these general lines.
What is Pax Americana, defined in a single sentence? Pax Americana is a globalist parasitic regime that attempts to extract wealth from the rest of the world through the imposition of a transnational financial oligarchy backed by a system of worldwide military bases and an expeditionary force that exacts obedience through financial oppression and military violence. Its parasitism rests on two pillars: a monopoly on printing money and the ever-looming threat of horrible military violence. The US dollar monopoly (of which the rapidly declining Euro is a mere concession) was at first (right after World War II) backed not just by military might but by a large industrial base, huge fossil fuel reserves and more than sufficient gold. Over the intervening decades the industrial might has been whittled away and what now remains is a raw materials-based and agrarian economy with an overgrown services sector, all of it operating at a large and constant loss and accumulating debt at an ever-increasing pace.
Oil production peaked around 1970, a run on the dollar followed and its gold backing had to be removed at around the same time. All that remained was a system of global banking backed by the threat of unspeakable military violence. This has worked well enough: the Washingtonians would figure out how to profit from foreign resources and labor and make their demands known. If these demands were not met, there followed economic and political sanctions. And if the sanctions didn't work, then it was time to do some bombing and some genociding. Civilian casualties, a.k.a. collateral damage, were not even counted. What's half a million Iraqis here, half a million Libyans there, a few hundred thousand Syrians, an unknown number of Afghanis?... but it all added up to quite an appalling act of genocide spanning many decades.
But the era when the Washingtonians could threaten the whole world to compel obedience from it has come to an end. Its unsinkable aircraft carrier fleet is now very much sinkable using an entire array of modern weaponry that can be launched from a stand-off distance that is greater than the reach of an aircraft carrier's on-board aircraft. This makes the US aircraft carrier fleet, once the pride of the US Navy that cost more than the entire defense budget of most countries, almost completely useless: still used for political posturing and showing the flag, but forced to scud off if there is a threat of military action nearby. The other pride and joy of the US military—its air defense systems—have been rendered useless by the newer and more advanced hypersonic missiles, while the new air defense systems that Russia has developed and sold around the world can knock down pretty much anything that the US has.
And then there are the heroic North Korean rocket men. In September of 2022, DPRK has pronounced itself a nuclear power. Its nuclear doctrine is as follows: KNDR will use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack, an attack with analogous weapons of mass destruction, and also when threatened (!) with such an attack. Reactions around the world ranged from quiet amazement (a reasonable reaction) to turning away while scoffing. Note to the Pentagon chiefs: do not threaten North Korea or they will nuke Guam, Kadena (Okinawa), and perhaps even California. And then what would they do. The surprising answer is: not much, really!
Could the North Koreans pull this off? Most likely, yes. After announcing its new status as a nuclear power, DPRK conducted five launches of various rockets, including a ballistic rocket that flew over Japan and came down somewhere in the Pacific. According to Japan's military sources, who were watching nervously, the missile flew 4.500km with a maximum altitude of 970km. The reentry speed was... wait for it... Mach 17! That's hypersound—much too fast for any air and space defense system to intercept. The altitude is impressive too. Satellite generally orbit between 160 and 2.000km. The ISS hangs out at 420km. Comrade Un's rocket touched the sky at 1000km. Not too shabby, eh? But Western mass media would prefer not to discuss such details. Instead, they prefer to recycle tired old fakes, such as the one about Putin handing out viagra to his troops, for them to better rape Ukrainian virgins (Whoa! Where did that come from?) previously used against Qaddafy in Libya.
Instead of paying attention to such nonsense, let us tackle this question head-on: Could DPRK carry out a nuclear attack against the United States and survive? In response, most people scoff: "That would be suicide! The North Koreans have something like a dozen nuclear bombs. Even if their rockets do work as advertised, the US, with its huge nuclear arsenal, would wipe them off the face of the earth..." Not so fast! In the game of geopolitics, the DPRK holds an ace of trumps: geography itself. The Korean peninsula is relatively tiny and is parked right between China and Russia, which are two of the mightiest nuclear powers. Zoom out a bit, and DPRK is just a marker on the Russia-China border. This makes a nuclear strike on North Korea very difficult to distinguish from a nuclear strike on China and/or Russia. And that would be, to put it extra-mildly, a dangerous thing for Americans to do.
Russia and China have integrated their early warning systems, and to them a US launch against North Korea would look very much like a launch against Northern China and/or Russian Far East. To be on the safe side, both Russia and China would respond by executing a launch-on-warning retaliatory strike against the US. This is why North Korea can launch rockets that fly over Japan and over US military bases. Air defense systems are activated and sirens sound, but nothing happens, because the US doesn't have anything that can shoot these rockets down. So, what would happen if one day one of these rockets landed square in the middle of Guam and detonated a nuclear charge?
They wouldn't do much of anything. When nuked by North Korea, the Americans would have to, to use that delightful expression, "suck it up." (It describes what a fighter jet pilot has to do if they vomit into their oxygen mask if he doesn't want to pass out from lack of oxygen or burn his lungs by inhaling gastric acid.) As Japanese and South Korean leaders would form an orderly chorus line, seeking an audience with the great and victorious Comrade Un, the North Koreans would celebrate a great strategic victory. Putin would chide them gently; Xi would maintain beatific silence. The rest of the world would look on in slack-jawed amazement, then rush to join BRICS or SCO or one or the other new international organizations that say "America keep out" on their front door. Oh, wait, they are doing that already! Perhaps North Korea won't have to do much of anything either; the world seems to be getting the message as it is.
But the US is not taking this sitting down. In response to this impetuous North Korean provocation, NATO has just launched the military exercise "Steadfast Noon" in Northern Europe (which is right next to Northern Korea... right!). It will involve toy militaries from 14 US colonial possessions and "up to 60 aircraft of various types, including fourth and fifth generation fighter jets, as well as surveillance and tanker aircraft. As in previous years, US B-52 long-range bombers will take part; this year, they will fly from Minot Air Base in North Dakota. Training flights will take place over Belgium, which is hosting the exercise, as well as over the North Sea and the United Kingdom. No live weapons are used." (This is from the web site nato.int.)
Let's summarize. In response to North Korea declaring itself a nuclear power and announcing a nuclear doctrine of first strike in response to any serious provocation, the US is going to hold exercises over the North Sea, as far as possible from North Korea, using ancient aircraft from North Dakota. The purpose, I suppose, is to give Russian Aerospace Defense Forces something amusing to watch. Rest assured, neither the ancient aircraft from North Dakota, nor any of the rockets they could fire from a safe distance, have any hope of penetrating Russian airspace. No actual nuclear weapons will be involved: "...[W]e seek to create the security environment for a world without nuclear weapons," it says right NATO's web site nato.int. Now, practicing for a nuclear first strike on Russia without any nuclear weapons could, I suppose, be seen as a step in that direction. The problem is, that's not the real world; in the real world there are some 12 thousand nuclear weapons. Most of these are either American or Russian, but a few are North Korean, and these are indeed problematic. The American response to this situation is a psychotic break: "A world full of "nucular" bombs is nasty; give us a different world with bunnies and kittens and unicorns or we'll cry!"
If the project of US dominating the entire planet militarily is looking rather hopeless, then what about the various proxy wars the US has been attempting to instigate? The Russians thwarted the US effort to topple the Syrian government. The US State Dept. and the Pentagon competitively supported different terrorist factions; the Russians simply killed them all, mostly from the air. Fomenting separatist conflict between mainland China and Taiwan seems to have gone nowhere in spite of Nancy Pelosi's best efforts; same with the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan (Nancy was there too). And then there is the bleeding sore of the former Ukraine, which is now losing around 500 soldiers a day, a sizable fraction of whom are mercenaries, while Russian battlefield losses are 20 a day at most. NATO keeps racking them up and Russia keeps bowling them over. Now Russia has decided to shift to a different mode by calling up a whopping 1% of its reservists.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have resorted to outright terrorism, ineffectually detonating a trailer full of explosives on the Kerch Bridge which connects Crimea to the mainland, shutting down traffic for an entire day. In response, Russia has started using its rockets to good effect and has shut down much of the Ukraine's electric grid. Since most locomotives in the Ukraine are electric, this will also mean no rail transport and no new deliveries of weapons, armor or ammunition to the battle front. But don't you worry! Ben Hodges the former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, is predicting that "Crimea will be free by summer." Bunnies and kittens and unicorns, I tell you! My prediction is that by next summer there will no longer be much of a Ukraine left; and a lot less of Europe or the US too. A distinct lack of military might, zero real backing for your currency, an economy declining because of very high and increasing energy prices and staggeringly huge levels of debt both public and private spell no end of trouble. The US is no longer in a good position to extort wealth from the rest of the world—except for transient effects related to flight of capital and currency fluctuations. Its biggest victim there is Europe, and that is curious because the US and Europe's financial systems are like conjoined twins; if Europe falls ill, the US is unlikely to remain well. Or, if you like a more vivid metaphor, the US/EU financial supersystem is now like a disemboweled yet still ravenous shark gorging itself on its own billowing entrails.
And on top of all that the US, and much of the rest of the world, now has high inflation—10% globally and going up. The inflation is structural—related to declining global energy availability and other forms of resource depletion, but nobody knows how to fight structural inflation because at this point everyone involved in finance is an avowed monetarist and believes Milton Friedman, who famously said that: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Therefore, when it comes to fighting inflation, command and control methods such as economic central planning, resource allocation to public needs, nationalization of strategic industries, price controls and rationing are out of the question and monetary methods are all that's left. To fight inflation using monetary methods, one has to raise the interest rate above the rate of inflation. If the interest rate is lower than inflation then the effective rate of interest is negative and speculators can make money by borrowing it, using it to buy up products and warehousing them until their price goes up enough to make a profit by selling them. Withholding products from the market drives up their prices even, adding fuel to the inflationary fire. At some point inflation crosses the notional boundary beyond which lies hyperinflation, currency devaluation and financial collapse—the opposite of what's intended. Is financial collapse also "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon:"? It's too bad that Milton Friedman is no longer available to be consulted.
But what would happen if effective interest rates were made positive rather than negative? Global inflation is currently at 10% and rising, so let's assume that in due course a rate closer to 20% will be achieved. Then an interest rate of 20% will be needed to crush it. Paul Volcker, who became Fed Chair in August 1979 and set out to crush inflation, raised the federal funds rate to 22%. He could do it then; could the current Fed Chair do it now? Let's do some arithmetic, shall we? Total US debt (public and private) is now close to $100 trillion and rising. US GDP is only $20 trillion and dropping. If the inflation rate is close to 20%, then it will take at least a 20% interest rate to drive it down. But 20% of $100 trillion is $20 trillion and at that point the entire US GDP gets swallowed up by debt service—impossible! Even after zeroing out defense and social security, a goodly portion of that $20 trillion would have to be simply printed... driving up inflation. Checkmate! And so instead of a decisive move to crush inflation, what we should reasonably expect is a crazy muddle: hyperinflation, currency collapse, market dysfunction, supply chain breakdown, political dysfunction and perhaps a nice little civil war to top it all off.
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