Dimitry Orlov: The Battle for Donbass

On March 29, 2022, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the end of the first stage of the special military operation in the Ukraine, explaining that the main focus of Russia's army will now be on achieving the main goal of the operation: the liberation of Donbass. The battle for Donbass will largely determine the future of both of the territory that is currently known as the Ukraine. It will also have a significant impact on the rest of Europe and on Russia. If all goes well, there will be a wide assortment of Ukrainian Nazi flags to toss at the foot of the Lenin Mausoleum on the Red Square in Moscow during Victory Day parade on May 9, 2022, echoing the one held on May 9, 1945. But we are not quite there yet, and here is how it is all likely to go down over the next couple of weeks.

To prepare, the Russian army had to drastically reduce its presence in the Kiev and Chernigov regions, which border Belarus, as confirmed by the Ukrainian side. The freed-up units are being redeployed to the Sumy and Kharkov regions, closer to Donbass.

It is important to keep in mind Putin's words that the special operation does not presuppose an occupation of the Ukraine. The Russian army successfully used the daring capture of Gostomel airport near Kiev and the continuous threat of an amphibious assault near Odessa to tie down the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces. Thanks to such widely dispersed actions during the first stage of the special operation, the Ukrainian forces were largely deprived of access to the Russian border and were unable to concentrate forces in any one direction for launching a counterattack while it could still have done so.

And now it no longer can. In less than a month, the Ukraine's military infrastructure and industry were almost completely destroyed, as confirmed by the Ukrainian side. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 30 thousand people, 65% of armored vehicles, 40% of artillery and rocket launch rocket systems, and 62% in aviation. The Russian army accomplished this while being numerically inferior. According to expert estimates and statements by Ukrainian officials, the Russian force numbered approximately 150 thousand people, against 250 thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 50 thousand soldiers of the Ukrainian National Guard, plus the border guards and various other special forces. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that from February 24 to February 26, another 100 thousand people have been drafted, and now there is a second wave of mobilization.

Of course, the Russians had an advantage aircraft and missiles that covered the entire territory of Ukraine, but it is obvious that the size of the Russian group is not enough to fully control the previously occupied territory. Keep in mind that just the length of the Russian-Ukrainian border is 3,000 kilometers! According to the classical concepts of warfare, the attackers should have a threefold advantage over the defenders while in this case the situation is almost the exact opposite. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Russian military is now being redeployed in order to encircle the Ukrainian forces massed in Donbass, which at the beginning of the operation numbered about 70,000 people. The liberation of Donbass is one of the main goals of Russia's special operation in Ukraine, and it can now proceed as planned.

The Ukrainian side understands this perfectly well and is shifting soldiers and equipment to Dnepropetrovsk region, forming a fortified area in Pavlograd. They did not have time to form a new line of defense in the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration, so they are planning to use the larger city of Pavlograd, where they can hide behind a mass of residential high-rise buildings (never mind their residents). This will be their new line of defense from which they will attempt to launch rescue operations for their forces pinned down in Donbass. They are being joined by foreign mercenaries paid by the Ukrainian oligarchs, who understand that this is one of their few remaining chances to hold on to their property in Ukraine. According to information from Ukrainian sources, a total of 45,000 fighters have already been deployed near Dnepropetrovsk.

Thus, subtracting for the losses already suffered by Ukraine, at least 90-95 thousand people would be able to participate directly in the battle for Donbass. It is difficult to assess size of the Russian forces that will be made available, since no shifts have been noticed in Kharkov or Nikolaev regions, which are by now free of Ukrainian forces. Also, a significant force was involved in the encirclement and mop-up of Mariupol, which nearing completion, freeing them up.

Meanwhile, the forces of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are already attacking the Donbass grouping of Ukrainian, in the areas of ​​Maryinka, Avdeevka, Severodonetsk and Rubizhne, methodically smashing through a defensive line which the Ukrainians had been working on for 8 years. But this advantage may yet be lost if the Ukrainians throw all of their remaining reserves at stopping their advance.

And if they don't succeed, the battle for Donbass may quickly turn into a rout. It is important to understand that the line of encirclement west of Donbass, roughly Izyum and Ugledar, runs across 160 kilometers of open steppe, without any large cities, while Pavlograd is some 100 kilometers from the line of probable encirclement. This makes it rather easy for the Russian forces to detect and destroy any large movement of troops or equipment from a safe stand-off distance. Thus, there is a great chance of success in destroying the Ukrainian grouping in Donbas. Even if it manages to slip out of the cauldron as it had done near Debaltsevo in 2015, the task of liberating the republics of Donbass and securing their administrative borders will be completed. The next Ukrainian fortified position among the apartment buildings of Pavlodar is 60 kilometers removed from the border of Donetsk People's Republic, which is too far for effective shelling and useless for staging counterattacks.

Whether hostilities will continue beyond that point depends on the willingness of the Ukraine's political leadership to conclude a peace agreement with Russia on terms that Russia will deem acceptable. It is under external pressure to continue fighting: according to The Times, Britain wishes for the Ukraine not to conclude an agreement with Russia. According to this newspaper, London is concerned about the readiness of Washington, Paris and Berlin to push Kiev to make significant concessions to Moscow, wishing to remain somehow relevant in international politics. On the other hand, the US has already its required minimum of murder and mayhem, dragging Russia into an armed conflict and worsening the position of Europe—its main competitor in the profligate consumption of dwindling natural resources. The next global hot spot for the US to try to bloody up is Taiwan, and therefore they will not try to ramp up the Ukraine third world war-level. That is why they did not approve Poland's initiative to send its armed forces to Ukraine.

Europe is by far the most interested in ending hostilities in the Ukraine. The sanctions imposed against Russia are hitting its own economy. The head of German trade unions warns of a global crisis due to the situation in Ukraine. European politicians are talking about a possible shortage of food, which is fraught with a social explosion, they need to negotiate food supplies. To avert disaster, sanctions need to be lifted quickly.

Second most interested in peace is the Ukraine. Despite all the military and technical support it has received from the West, the objective reality suggests that it simply can't go on fighting. Rocket strikes on Ukrainian oil storage facilities will result in fuel shortages in the next few days. Already, 86% of Ukrainian enterprises stopped their work, 40% of them can no longer pay wages, 30% cannot pay their suppliers... in short, the Ukrainian economy is paralyzed. Farmers do not want to start sowing, fearing that their crops may be destroyed by war and that they will not be compensated for their lost investment in fuel, seed and fertilizer.

No military action can succeed without a well-organized rear, but logistics in the Ukraine are at this point weak bordering on nonexistent. Stocks of everything are running out, as is clearly visible by the empty shelves in supermarkets in Kiev. In some places, shops are starting to sell humanitarian aid which should be distributed free of charge, local business ethics being something of a weak point. All this, coupled with the loss of the most capable military units, pressure to stop hostilities from European capitals, and purposeful indifference from the US, should push the Ukrainian leadership to sign a peace agreement with Russia in all due haste, London be damned.

The proposals of the Ukrainian side, announced during the talks in Istanbul on March 29, signaled its their willingness to accede to Ukraine's politically neutral, nuclear-free status and a ban on the presence of foreign military bases and foreign troops on its territory. These look like big concessions compared to the position declared before the start of the Russian special operation. This is nowhere near a complete list of demands that Russia will require them to accept, but it is a serious step forward for the Ukrainian leadership in understanding the changed reality of its situation.

Summing up, the decisive battle for Donbass will begin very soon. All hostilities on the territory of Ukraine are unlikely to stop even after its end, since there are Nazi groups roaming about that are not under anyone's control. But the offensive potential of the Ukraine, from a Russian perspective, will be gone and nothing will alter this outcome in the foreseeable future.