tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57184656075201936832024-03-14T16:00:45.521+01:00Piensa y ActúaEl blog de Armando Fernández Steinko. sígueme en twitter: @asteinko Correo: afsteinko@gmail.comArmando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.comBlogger151125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-81792425241179180362023-03-05T14:02:00.000+01:002023-03-05T14:02:01.741+01:00Ucrania: orígenes y consecuencias de un conflicto - presentación en Power Point<p><a href="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1xw78Ljl9w-Sutv8dZ_vNKgfbYk08jTw9/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=111133734155170076943&rtpof=true&sd=true" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ucrania: orígenes y consecuencias de un conflicto (PPT)</a> </p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-23774578278361343262023-02-01T08:04:00.001+01:002023-02-01T08:04:19.909+01:00 Entrevista del Viceministro de Asuntos Exteriores de Rusia, Serguéi Riabkov, con la agencia de noticias RIA Novosti<p><br /></p><p> ¿Ya se conoce la fecha en la que la nueva Embajadora de EEUU Lynne Tracy hará la entrega de las copias de las cartas credenciales? ¿Se ha previsto algún tipo de contacto con la diplomático de alto rango?</p><p> Serguéi Riabkov: Cualquier Embajador que acude a su destino después de un cierto período, para hacerse al lugar y proceder a la solución de problemas prioritarios relacionados con su posterior misión, hace la entrega de las copias de las cartas credenciales al Ministerio de Exteriores del país de estancia. Es el acto que le permite empezar a desempeñar sus funciones laborales. Este procedimiento fue acordado con la Embajadora Tracy, el evento tendrá lugar a principios de esta semana. Se prevé que seré yo quien recibirá de la Embajadora Tracy las copias de las cartas credenciales.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>¿Cuál es, de acuerdo con Rusia, el tope del personal de una Embajada, tema abordado durante la reunión celebrada en pasado mes de diciembre en Estambul con los representantes de EEUU? ¿Se está preparando en la actualidad una nueva reunión? De ser así, ¿dónde y en qué fechas se celebrará? ¿O es que, dadas las recientes declaraciones y pasos de la Casa Blanca, el diálogo sobre el particular fue interrumpido?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Si hablamos de las consultas sobre temas espinosos mantenidas en pasado diciembre en Estambul por los representantes del Ministerio de Exteriores ruso y del Departamento de Estado de EEUU, el tema del número de empleados de las misiones diplomáticas no fue abordado. En la esfera de las relaciones bilaterales se han acumulado muchos problemas. El origen de los mismos, como puede entender, está en la línea política aplicada por Washington con respecto a Rusia. Para ser más exactos, en la confrontación diplomática desatada por el Presidente Barack Obama durante su mandato. Fue acompañada, entre otros pasos, por la ocupación de 6 bienes inmuebles que le pertenecían en calidad de propiedad diplomática a Rusia, así como por expulsiones masivas de diplomáticos rusos. Naturalmente, aplicamos medidas de respuesta, guiándonos por el principio de la reciprocidad. EEUU se lo tomó con mucha sensibilidad y procedió enseguida a quejarse de la falta de personal, sin hacer mención alguna a que la cuota de la Embajada de EEUU en Moscú que desde entonces y hasta ahora equivale a 455 empleados no está cubierta siquiera en un 30%.</p><p>En cuanto a la próxima ronda de las consultas ruso-estadounidenses, a día de hoy no se han precisado ni las fechas ni el lugar de su celebración. En general consideramos que es un evento útil para poder aclarar las posturas de las partes. No parece existir ninguna otra forma de empezar a solucionar el montón de problemas cuyo arreglo se encuentra en un punto muerto. En la actualidad nos estamos dedicando a la rutinaria labor que consiste en preparar una nueva reunión. Esperamos que el método de los pasos pequeños nos permitirá finalmente alcanzar desenlaces aprobados por ambas partes en cuanto a los más relevantes aspectos de la agenda bilateral.</p><p>Me gustaría aportar otra explicación a lo que acabo de decir: como se desprende de la composición real de la misión diplomática estadounidense en la Federación de Rusia y, por consiguiente, de nuestras misiones diplomáticas en EEUU, incluso en el marco de la mencionada cuota, queda un gran número de plazas vacantes. Para ser exactos, no son vacantes, sino posibilidades de incrementar la plantilla. Si EEUU no lo hace, tendrá sus motivos que ni siquiera tenemos la intención de aclarar. De modo que no creemos justificado el propio planteamiento de que deberíamos ahora lanzar algún mecanismo de consultas o una negociación para establecer otras cuotas a otros niveles o algo por el estilo. Si la parte estadounidense formula tal iniciativa, la someteremos a consideración. Ello no quiere decir que aceptemos. En general la situación es bastante complicada y tiene su historia, por lo cual el diálogo sobre el particular es en general importante y lo seguiremos manteniendo.</p><p>¿No complicará la decisión de EEUU en enviar un batallón acorazado a Ucrania las negociaciones sobre asuntos relativos a la agenda bilateral?</p><p><br /></p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Sin lugar a dudas, es un paso extremadamente destructivo, un intento de provocar una escalada en Ucrania. Paradójicamente, autoridades estadounidenses aseguran que el envío a Ucrania de más denominaciones de armamentos modernos, incluidos los sistemas pesados, no representan ninguna escalada. Últimamente en las declaraciones de los representantes de EEUU y de la OTAN abundan citas literales de las obras de George Orwell: “La guerra es la paz”, son literalmente las palabras pronunciadas desde las altas tribunas y los importantes despachos occidentales. Miren lo que están diciendo. Ahora también, después de la decisión de enviar una cantidad considerable de los Adams, se procede a asegurar que no es ninguna escalada. Están negando lo evidente. EEUU optó por dar este paso, para volver a lograr que cuadren ante Washington las filas de la OTAN. Todo eso se está llevando a cabo ante la comunidad internacional que, según tengo entendido, se está volviendo cada vez más preocupada por el derrotero por el que está empujando al mundo este grupo de políticos, quizás, que no deberían llamarse así, irresponsables, cuando no locos.</p><p>Volviendo al tema de las relaciones bilaterales con EEUU. ¿Se han recibido durante esta última semana desde Washington algunas señales de celebrar la reunión de la Comisión para el Nuevo START? ¿Es posible que haya algún progreso en la organización de tal reunión tras la llegada de la nueva Embajadora de EEUU?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Hemos de señalar que EEUU en este tema, tal y como suele obrar, se centra únicamente en los asuntos que considera prioritarios. En este caso sería su exigencia de reanudar cuanto antes las inspecciones efectuadas en el marco del Tratado START. Realmente, con ello vinculó la parte estadounidense la celebración de las reuniones de la Comisión bilateral de consultas formada en el marco del Tratado. En condiciones de haber pasado “las fuerzas unidas de Occidente” de una guerra híbrida contra Rusia a una guerra casi real contra Rusia, es algo objetivamente imposible. El diálogo sobre la seguridad estratégica y el control de armamentos no fue cesado por nosotros, sino por EEUU y sus allegados, al rechazar nuestras propuestas sobre garantías de la seguridad presentadas oficialmente en diciembre de 2021 y al apostar por la derrota estratégica de Rusia. La Federación de Rusia, si embargo, sigue confirmando su adhesión al Tratado Nuevo START.</p><p>Estamos observando de buena voluntad y plenamente todas las limitaciones de cantidad y calidad que prevé el documento en cuestión, continuamos manteniendo el previsto intercambio de información que nos garantiza el necesario nivel de transparencia y predictibilidad en la esfera estratégica. Al mismo tiempo, nadie ha suprimido el principio de rebus sic stantibus, es decir, “si las condiciones continúan siendo iguales” que indica lo importante que es tener en cuenta la invariabilidad de las circunstancias, en las que se produjo la firma de tal o cual acuerdo. Recordemos que, en función del preámbulo al Tratado que EEUU firmó, procedo a citar: “está trabajando en el refuerzo de unas nuevas relaciones estratégicas basadas en la confianza mutua, la transparencia, la predictibilidad y la cooperación”, así como, procedo a citar: “se guían por el principio de una seguridad indivisible”.</p><p>Son unos importantes postulados, siendo el preámbulo de un Tratado no menos relevante que los Artículos operativos. Los postulados que acabo de citar están siendo violados de la más burda y cínica manera por la actuación estadounidense encaminada a resolver el llamado “asunto ruso” vía disuasión frontal y agresiva que está rozando el enfrentamiento directo entre EEUU y la OTAN, por una parte, y Rusia, por la otra. Viene encaminada a destruir nuestro código histórico y cultural. Washington ha de darse cuenta de que, sin renunciar a la actual política y sin estar dispuesta a llegar a un acuerdo en base al respeto mutuo y el respeto de los intereses nacionales, no podrá haber interacción normal entre Estados en ninguna esfera, incluida la de la seguridad estratégica.</p><p>Dijo hace poco que el abandono por Washington del Tratado Nuevo START era de lamentar enormemente, pero que Moscú no le retendría a EEUU por fuerza. ¿Significa eso que Rusia en general ya está considerando el guion de que a partir de 2026 entre las dos partes de habrá ningún Tratado firmado en la esfera de control de armamentos?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Es un guion bastante posible. Por desgracia, a lo largo de los últimos años fuimos presenciando por parte de Washington un desmantelamiento bastante deliberado, si suponemos que es el principal interés de EEUU y lo demás puede pasarse por alto, de los más importantes eslabones y elementos de toda la estructura de control de armamentos. Algunos eran también de carácter multilateral, no solo bilaterales, como es el caso de la Federación de Rusia y EEUU. El Tratado Nuevo START podría caer perfectamente víctima de esta línea política. Estamos preparados para este desarrollo de los acontecimientos. Estamos haciendo pronósticos, también desde el punto de vista de las consecuencias que tendría para las garantías de nuestra seguridad. No ocultamos que no es una nuestra elección y que lo mejor habría sido seguir otro camino, es decir, el de la reanudación de los debates en torno a la estabilidad estratégica y del trabajo en un nuevo nivel de seguridad, en el que se tengan en cuenta todos los factores que influyen en la misma.</p><p>¿Resulta entonces que las partes se encuentran en un atolladero? Cuesta creer que Washington cambie de postura con respecto a Rusia y Ucrania y lance la señal de haber cambiado su actitud hacia el principio que, como ha dicho, representa una infracción suya del Nuevo START. </p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Tiene razón en que la situación se encuentra en un atolladero, casi en todos los campos del diálogo ruso-estadounidense. A este atolladero las relaciones bilaterales fueron conducidas por la política antirrusa que fue aplicando EEUU y que se fue volviendo más severa en el transcurso de los últimos cinco años. Sin embargo, en cuanto al principio que he citado en mi comentario y que acaba de mencionar, es aplicable a un cambio drástico de las circunstancias que existieron en el momento de la firma del Tratado. He citado el principio en cuestión, explicando, por qué consideramos que sería imposible cumplir la exigencia estadounidense, reanudando con urgencia las inspecciones y recuperando otros elementos de la interacción, como si nada estuviera pasando. Es imposible. No será posible elevar como una mampara a prueba de todo entre estas dos cosas. Toda la situación en la esfera de la seguridad, incluido el control de armamentos, se volvieron rehenes de la política estadounidense encaminada a asestarle una derrota estratégica a Rusia. Nos enfrentaremos a ello con suma determinación, recurriendo a todos los métodos y recursos disponibles.</p><p> ¿Le ha ofrecido Rusia a EEUU un canje de prisioneros del modelo “todos por todos”? ¿O no sería un intercambio paritario, dado el número de ciudadanos rusos que se encuentran en los centros penitenciarios estadounidenses? ¿Existen datos exactos con respecto al número de prisioneros por ambos lados? ¿Se siguen negociando futuros canjes?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov : El canje de prisioneros es un asunto extremadamente delicado que afecta directamente a la vida de la gente. Toda está claro, si estamos hablando de personas detenidas y retenidas, debido a unos actos muy concretos, como, por ejemplo, cargos de espionaje, tráfico de drogas o, si hablamos de nuestros ciudadanos en EEUU, por motivos políticos o cargos derivados de causas penales falsificadas. Dada esta circunstancia, apenas se podría aplicar realmente la fórmula de “todos por todos”. Además, por desgracia, no disponemos de datos exactos sobre todos los ciudadanos rusos que se encuentran en los centros penitenciarios de EEUU. El Departamento de Estado de manera sistémica deja sin atención las solicitudes de información por parte de la Embajada rusa en Washington. Al mismo tiempo, de acuerdo con los datos que tenemos a nuestra disposición, en los centros penitenciarios estadounidenses está cumpliendo su condena un número de ciudadanos rusos cerca de 10 veces superior al número de ciudadanos estadounidenses que se encuentran en los centros penitenciarios rusos. Seré directo: un tema tal altamente delicado como el canje de prisioneros no es amigo del bullicio informativo, no es recomendable incluirlo en el espacio público, puesto que resultados reales en este caso se alcanzan con menos frecuencia. Contamos con un canal de comunicación confidencial con la parte estadounidense y probó su eficacia durante el canje de Konstantín Yaroshenko por Trevor Reed y de Víctor Bout por Brittney Griner.</p><p>¿Y las negociaciones sobre el canje de prisioneros con EEUU se seguirán manteniendo?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Indudablemente, se hará por el canal especial que existe.</p><p>¿Se está abordando por dicho canal la posibilidad del canje de los estadounidenses que fueron tomados prisioneros en Ucrania? ¿Hay alguna posibilidad de que sean canjeados por ciudadanos rusos que se encuentran en los centros penitenciarios de EEUU? ¿Tienen, siendo mercenarios, estatus de prisioneros de guerra? ¿Podrían tenerlo, dada su condición?</p><p> Serguéi Riabkov: Si hablamos de los estadounidenses que fueron declarados desaparecidos en el territorio ucraniano, la información Washington debería solicitársela directamente a Kiev. Las autoridades rusas no se responsabilizan por la seguridad de los ciudadanos estadounidenses que se encuentran en otros países y, por supuesto, no están pendientes de su localización. Si hablamos de los estadounidenses que salieron con destino a Ucrania en calidad de mercenarios o instructores, participando de hecho en la comisión de crímenes contra los militares rusos y los civiles, lo mejor que podría hacer esta gente es volver a casa cuanto antes, si quiere conservar su vida y su salud.</p><p>¿Podrían darse este año, dado cierto estancamiento en las acciones bélicas en Ucrania, las condiciones para unas negociaciones de paz, en las que participe EEUU?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Nuestra postura al respecto es bien conocida y creo que Washington también está al tanto de ella. Estamos dispuestos a estudiar cualquier iniciativa seria en cuanto al arreglo de la crisis ucraniana, pero de momento nadie ha formulado ninguna valiosa. No hemos rechazado las negociaciones en ninguna de las etapas y lo demostramos en marzo de 2022 en Minsk y en Estambul. Sin embargo, Kiev por iniciativa de sus patronos occidentales rechazó los acuerdos que estaban casi elaborados ya y procedió a declarar en público su falta de deseo de continuar con el diálogo, formulando condiciones de entrada imposibles de cumplir. En septiembre del año pasado Vladímir Zelenski por un Decreto prohibió cualquier negociación con Rusia. En las condiciones actuales, tras anunciar Washington el envío de tanques y ponerse a competir sus vasallos, Ottawa incluida, en quién y cuántos vehículos blindados viejos enviará a Ucrania, carece de sentido hablar tanto con los nazis ucranianos como con sus patronos. Muchos de ellos, de puro ignorantes, parecen personajes caricaturescos. Después de haberse sincerado con el público la ex Canciller de Alemania, Ángela Merkel, el ex Presidente de Francia, Francois Hollade y el ex Primer ministro del Reino Unido, Boris Johnson, las escasas ilusiones sobre la mediación de los países occidentales en lo tocante a los Acuerdos de Minsk y al Cuarteto de Normandía, se desvanecieron sin dejar rastro. Es evidente también que EEUU no es sólo la parte que orquesta la crisis ucraniana, sino la parte que más se beneficia con ella. Entre otros aspectos, Ucrania es percibida como un polígono de pruebas para los armamentos estadounidenses, donde son rodados diferentes sistemas, incluidos los más avanzados y de largo alcance, y su uso contra armas rusas en condiciones reales. Al mismo tiempo, al hacerse con los vehículos de combate de sus aliados y enviarlos a la “reutilización”, Washington cuenta con imponerles a los europeos contratos de suministros de armas por miles de millones de dólares. Es un juego así de cínico que acabará mal para quienes están tan inmersos en él. Estamos convencidos de ello.</p><p>¿Qué opina Moscú de un artículo firmado por la ex Secretaria de Estado de EEUU, Condoleezza Rice, y por el ex Secretario de Defensa de EEUU, Robert Gates publicado por Washington Post? Se indica en el mismo que Rusia no puede cederle a Ucrania los territorios reintegrados durante la operación militar especial e intentará retenerlos para convertirlos en el futuro en “espacios fortificados” para un ataque contra Occidente.</p><p> Serguéi Riabkov: Por muy triste que sea, el nivel de los analistas estadounidenses especializados en Rusia cayó dramáticamente durante la última década. De haber sido diferente, la política de Washington con respecto a nuestro país habría sido mucho más razonable y apropiada. Hicimos numerosas declaraciones y las confirmamos con nuestra actuación. No necesitamos nada de los países occidentales. Queremos que se nos deje en paz. La OTAN, sin embargo, con una insistencia maníaca, digna de mejor aplicación, no dejaba de acercarse a rastras a las fronteras rusas, convirtiendo al mismo tiempo con sus historias de miedo antirrusas en zombies a los habitantes de los países vecinos. En muchas ocasiones dimos a entender, por las buenas y por las no tan buenas, que no había que hacerlo, que ya vendrían las consecuencias. No renunciaremos a nuestros intereses legítimos en la esfera de la seguridad ni dejaremos que se le ofenda a la gente rusa. Los estadounidenses no escuchaban nuestras advertencias y no las tomaban en serio. Seguían azuzando a Kiev contra Rusia. De ahí que nos hayamos visto obligados a iniciar la operación militar especial. Simplemente no nos quedaban otras opciones.</p><p>¿Se está preparando una nueva reunión con el Director General del OIEA, Rafael Grossi, con respecto a la central nuclear de Zaporozhie? ¿Podrían las declaraciones del Director de la Agencia de Energía Atómica de Ucrania y de las autoridades de Kiev que insisten que “no sería realista intentar crear una zona de protección” echar por tierra los esfuerzos conjuntos que se están aplicando? ¿En qué estado de elaboración se encuentra el acuerdo sobre la creación de una zona de protección en torno a la central nuclear de Zaporozhie?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: Seguimos manteniendo las consultas con la Secretaria del OIEA sobre la creación de una zona de protección física y nuclear para la explotación de la central nuclear de Zaporozhie. Nuestro objetivo es hacer todo lo posible para prevenir los ataques a la misma por parte de los ucranianos y evitar una catástrofe tecnológica de secuelas impredecibles. Mientras estas consultas con el OIEA se están manteniendo, sería incorrecto revelar en el espacio público los posibles parámetros de la protección de la central. El proceso de las negociaciones no es sencillo. Le hicimos llegar al Director General del Organismo señor Grossi nuestras propuestas. De momento Kiev no parece haber ofrecido una respuesta coherente a la iniciativa formulada por el Jefe del OIEA. Todo parece indicar que está intentando ganar más tiempo. Ucrania en más de una ocasión atacó la central nuclear de Zaporozhie, causando daños a las instalaciones de la misma y demostrando de esta manera una completa negligencia con respecto a los posibles riesgos relacionados con la falta de seguridad en las instalaciones nucleares. Da la sensación que Kiev está usado la central para chantaje nuclear. Todo ello vuelve a poner de manifiesto que a las autoridades ucranianas no hay que les contenga. A juzgar por todo, el apoyo de sus patrocinadores le hizo creer a Kiev que siempre va a salir impune de todos los crímenes cometidos.</p><p>¿Realmente ha propuesto el OIEA sacar fuera del territorio de la central a los efectivos de la Guardia Rusa que la están vigilando? ¿Está Rusia de acuerdo y quién se encargará en este caso de garantizar la seguridad de las instalaciones?</p><p>Serguéi Riabkov: La propuesta de sacar fuera del territorio de la central las unidades de la Guardia Rusa fue formulada en realidad por algunos representantes de la parte ucraniana y de los países occidentales que apoyan el régimen kievita. La central está situada en el territorio ruso. De acuerdo con nuestra legislación, unidades de la Guardia Rusa se encargan de vigilar todas las instalaciones nucleares rusas, incluida la central nuclear de Zaporozhie. Ni la Secretaría del OIEA ni los países miembros del Organismo tienen derecho de intervenir en la forma de la que es garantizada la seguridad de una central nuclear de un Estado, el mandato del Organismo no lo prevé. La Secretaría en este caso se atiene estrictamente a sus potestades, por lo cual no formuló ninguna propuesta al respecto. En cuanto a los contactos con Grossi, se mantienen con regularidad a través de nuestra Representación permanente en Viena. La llegada del Director General del OIEA a Rusia será bastante probable, al necesitarse coordinación adicional para nuestra interacción.</p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-60293483099178688602023-01-26T19:58:00.003+01:002023-01-26T19:58:38.807+01:00Entrevista con el General (retirado) Harald Kujat* Conflicto en Ucrania: «Ahora sería el momento adecuado para reanudar las negociaciones interrumpidas»<p><br /></p><p>«Las entregas de armas significan que la guerra se prolonga sin sentido</p><p>Enfoque de actualidad ¿Qué valor le da a la cobertura de Ucrania en nuestros principales medios de comunicación?</p><p>General (retirado) Harald Kujat. La guerra de Ucrania no es sólo un conflicto militar; es también una guerra económica y de información. En esta guerra de la información, uno puede convertirse en partícipe de la guerra si adopta información y argumentos que no puede verificar ni juzgar en función de su propia competencia. En parte, los motivos entendidos como morales o ideológicos también desempeñan un papel. Esto es especialmente problemático en Alemania porque en los medios de comunicación predominan los «expertos» que no tienen conocimientos ni experiencia en política y estrategia de seguridad y, por tanto, expresan opiniones que extraen de publicaciones de otros «expertos» con conocimientos comparables. Obviamente, esto también aumenta la presión política sobre el gobierno alemán. El debate sobre la entrega de determinados sistemas de armamento muestra con toda claridad la intención de muchos medios de comunicación de jugar ellos mismos a la política. Es posible que mi malestar por esta evolución sea consecuencia de mis muchos años de servicio en la OTAN, entre ellos como presidente del Consejo OTAN-Rusia y de la Comisión OTAN-Ucrania del Estado Mayor Conjunto. Me molesta especialmente que se preste tan poca atención a los intereses de seguridad alemanes y a los peligros que entraña para nuestro país una ampliación y escalada de la guerra. Esto demuestra una falta de sentido de la responsabilidad o, por utilizar un término anticuado, una actitud muy poco patriótica. En Estados Unidos, uno de los dos principales actores en este conflicto, la gestión de la guerra de Ucrania es mucho más diferenciada y controvertida, aunque siempre guiada por los intereses nacionales.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>A principios de 2022, cuando la situación en la frontera con Ucrania era cada vez más aguda, se pronunciaron sobre el entonces Inspector General de la Armada, el Vice General Kai-Achim Schönbach, y en cierto modo le respaldaron. Advirtió urgentemente contra una escalada con Rusia y reprochó a Occidente que humillara a Putin y que había que negociar con él en pie de igualdad.</p><p>No me pronuncié al respecto, sino para protegerle de ataques descalificados. Sin embargo, siempre he sido de la opinión de que esta guerra debía evitarse y que podría haberse evitado. También me pronuncié públicamente al respecto en diciembre de 2021. Y a principios de enero de 2022, publiqué propuestas sobre cómo podría alcanzarse un resultado aceptable para todas las partes en unas negociaciones que evitaran la guerra después de todo. Desgraciadamente, las cosas no fueron así. Quizá algún día se plantee la pregunta de quién quiso esta guerra, quién no quiso evitarla y quién no pudo evitarla.</p><p>¿Cómo valora la evolución actual de Ucrania?</p><p>Cuanto más dure la guerra, más difícil será alcanzar una paz negociada. La anexión rusa de cuatro territorios ucranianos el 30 de septiembre de 2022 es un ejemplo de evolución difícilmente reversible. Por eso me pareció tan lamentable que las negociaciones celebradas en Estambul en marzo se interrumpieran tras grandes avances y un resultado totalmente positivo para Ucrania. Al parecer, en las negociaciones de Estambul, Rusia había aceptado retirar sus fuerzas al nivel del 23 de febrero, es decir, antes de que comenzara el ataque contra Ucrania. Ahora, se exige repetidamente la retirada completa como condición previa para las negociaciones.</p><p>¿Qué ofreció Ucrania a cambio?</p><p>Ucrania se había comprometido a renunciar a pertenecer a la OTAN y a no permitir el estacionamiento de tropas o instalaciones militares extranjeras. A cambio, debía recibir garantías de seguridad de los Estados de su elección. El futuro de los territorios ocupados debía resolverse diplomáticamente en un plazo de 15 años, renunciando explícitamente a la fuerza militar.</p><p>¿Por qué no se materializó el tratado, que habría salvado decenas de miles de vidas y evitado a los ucranianos la destrucción de su país?</p><p>Según información fiable, el entonces primer ministro británico, Boris Johnson, intervino en Kiev el 9 de abril e impidió la firma. Su razonamiento era que Occidente no estaba preparado para poner fin a la guerra.</p><p>Es indignante lo que se está jugando, de lo que el ciudadano crédulo no tiene ni idea. Las negociaciones en Estambul eran bien conocidas, incluso el hecho de que estaba a punto de alcanzarse un acuerdo, pero de un día para otro no se supo nada.</p><p>A mediados de marzo, por ejemplo, el diario británico «Financial Times» informaba de los progresos realizados. También aparecieron noticias en algunos periódicos alemanes. Sin embargo, no se ha informado de por qué fracasaron las negociaciones. Cuando Putin anunció la movilización parcial el 21 de septiembre, mencionó públicamente por primera vez que Ucrania había respondido positivamente a las propuestas rusas en las negociaciones de Estambul de marzo de 2022. «Pero», dijo literalmente, «una solución pacífica no convenía a Occidente, así que ordenó a Kiev que anulara todos los acuerdos».</p><p>Nuestra prensa guarda silencio al respecto.</p><p>A diferencia de los medios de comunicación estadounidenses, por ejemplo. «Foreign Affairs» y «Responsible Statecraft», dos revistas de renombre, publicaron reportajes muy informativos al respecto. El artículo en «Foreign Affairs» fue escrito por Fiona Hill, antigua funcionaria de alto rango en el Consejo de Seguridad Nacional de la Casa Blanca. Es muy competente y absolutamente fiable. El diario progubernamental «Ukrainska Pravda» también publicó información muy detallada el 2 de mayo.</p><p>¿Tiene más detalles sobre esta monstruosidad?</p><p>Se sabe que los principales contenidos del proyecto de acuerdo se basan en una propuesta del Gobierno ucraniano del 29 de marzo. Mientras tanto, muchos medios de comunicación estadounidenses también informan al respecto. Sin embargo, he tenido que aprender que los medios de comunicación alemanes no están dispuestos a ocuparse del tema aunque tengan acceso a las fuentes.</p><p>Usted se expresa así en un artículo: «La falta de previsión en política de seguridad y de juicio estratégico en nuestro país es vergonzosa». ¿A qué se refiere concretamente?</p><p>Tomemos como ejemplo el estado de la Bundeswehr. En 2011, se llevó a cabo una reforma de la Bundeswehr, el llamado realineamiento de la Bundeswehr. La reorientación significó alejarse del mandato constitucional de la defensa nacional y de las alianzas y acercarse a las misiones en el extranjero. La justificación aducida fue que no había riesgo de ataque convencional contra Alemania y sus aliados de la OTAN. El tamaño y la estructura de las fuerzas armadas, el equipamiento, el armamento y la formación estaban orientados a las misiones en el extranjero. Las fuerzas armadas que tienen capacidad para defender a su país y a su alianza también pueden llevar a cabo misiones de estabilización, sobre todo porque el Gobierno Federal y el Parlamento pueden decidirlo por sí mismos en casos individuales. No ocurre lo contrario, porque es el agresor quien decide si se da el caso de defensa nacional y de alianza. De todos modos, la evaluación de la situación en aquel momento era errónea. Pues la rescisión unilateral del Tratado ABM por parte de EEUU ya había creado un punto de inflexión estratégico en la relación con Rusia en 2002. El punto de inflexión político fue la cumbre de la OTAN celebrada en Bucarest en 2008, cuando el presidente estadounidense George W. Bush trató de impulsar una invitación a Ucrania y Georgia para ingresar en la OTAN. Cuando fracasó en esto, se incluyó en el comunicado una vaga perspectiva de adhesión para estos países, como es habitual en estos casos.</p><p>¿Ve alguna relación con la crisis actual a causa de esta evolución entre Rusia y Estados Unidos?</p><p>Aunque el riesgo de un enfrentamiento entre Rusia y la OTAN es evidente para todos debido a la guerra de Ucrania, la Bundeswehr sigue siendo desarmada, incluso canibalizada, con el fin de liberar armas y equipos militares para Ucrania. Algunos políticos incluso lo justifican con el disparatado argumento de que en Ucrania se está defendiendo nuestra libertad</p><p>¿Por qué es un argumento sin sentido para usted? Todo el mundo argumenta así, incluso el jefe del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores suizo, Ignazio Cassis.</p><p>Ucrania lucha por su libertad, por su soberanía y por la integridad territorial del país. Pero los dos actores principales de esta guerra son Rusia y Estados Unidos. Ucrania también lucha por los intereses geopolíticos de Estados Unidos. Pues su objetivo declarado es debilitar a Rusia política, económica y militarmente hasta tal punto que puedan volverse hacia su rival geopolítico, el único capaz de amenazar su supremacía como potencia mundial: China. Además, sería muy inmoral dejar sola a Ucrania en su lucha por nuestra libertad y limitarse a suministrar armas que prolonguen el derramamiento de sangre y aumenten la destrucción del país. No, esta guerra no es por nuestra libertad. Los problemas centrales por los que la guerra ha surgido y aún continúa, aunque podría haber terminado hace mucho tiempo, son muy diferentes.</p><p>¿Cuál cree que es el problema principal?</p><p>Rusia quiere impedir que su rival geopolítico, Estados Unidos, adquiera una superioridad estratégica que pondría en peligro la seguridad de Rusia. Ya sea mediante la adhesión de Ucrania a la OTAN liderada por Estados Unidos, ya sea mediante el estacionamiento de tropas estadounidenses, el traslado de infraestructuras militares o las maniobras conjuntas de la OTAN. El despliegue de sistemas estadounidenses del sistema de defensa antimisiles balísticos de la OTAN en Polonia y Rumanía es también una espina clavada en el costado de Rusia, porque ésta está convencida de que Estados Unidos también podría eliminar los sistemas estratégicos intercontinentales rusos desde estos lanzadores y poner así en peligro el equilibrio estratégico nuclear. También desempeña un papel importante el acuerdo de Minsk II, en el que Ucrania se ha comprometido a conceder derechos minoritarios a la población rusoparlante del Donbás para finales de 2015 mediante una enmienda constitucional con mayor autonomía para la región, como es norma en la Unión Europea. Ahora existen dudas sobre si Estados Unidos y la OTAN estaban dispuestos a negociar seriamente sobre estas cuestiones antes del ataque ruso a Ucrania.</p><p>Wilfried Scharnagl muestra muy claramente en su libro «Am Abgrund» (En el abismo) ya en 2015 que la política de Occidente es una provocación increíble, y si la UE y la OTAN no cambian de rumbo, podría conducir a una catástrofe.</p><p>Sí, era de esperar. Cuanto más dure la guerra, mayor será el riesgo de expansión o escalada.</p><p>Ya lo tuvimos en la Crisis de los Misiles de Cuba.</p><p>Era una situación comparable.</p><p>¿Cómo valora la entrega acordada de tanques Marder a Ucrania?</p><p>Los sistemas de armas tienen puntos fuertes y débiles debido a sus características técnicas y, por tanto, -dependiendo del nivel de formación de los soldados así como de las respectivas condiciones marco operativas- un determinado valor operativo. En la batalla de las armas enlazadas, diferentes sistemas de armas interactúan en un sistema común de mando y control o de información, en el que los puntos débiles de un sistema se compensan con los puntos fuertes de otros sistemas. Si el nivel de formación de los operadores es bajo o si un sistema de armas no se despliega junto con otros sistemas en un contexto funcional y posiblemente las condiciones operativas sean difíciles, el valor operativo es bajo. Así, existe el riesgo de una eliminación prematura o incluso de que el arma caiga en manos del enemigo. Esta es la situación actual en la que se están utilizando los modernos sistemas de armamento occidentales en la guerra de Ucrania. En diciembre, Rusia inició un amplio programa de evaluación de los parámetros técnicos y táctico-operativos de las armas occidentales capturadas, que debería aumentar la eficacia de su propio mando operativo y la efectividad de sus armas.</p><p>Además, se plantea la cuestión fundamental de la relación medios-finalidad. ¿A qué fin deben servir las armas occidentales? Zelensky ha cambiado repetidamente los objetivos estratégicos de la guerra ucraniana. Actualmente, Ucrania persigue el objetivo de recuperar todos los territorios ocupados por Rusia, incluida Crimea. La Canciller alemana afirma que apoyaremos a Ucrania mientras sea necesario, es decir, también en la consecución de este objetivo, aunque mientras tanto Estados Unidos subraya que el objetivo es únicamente «recuperar el territorio tomado por Rusia desde el 24 de febrero de 2022».</p><p>La cuestión que hay que responder es, por tanto, si los medios de las entregas de armas occidentales son adecuados para cumplir el propósito de Ucrania. Esta pregunta tiene una dimensión cualitativa y otra cuantitativa. EE.UU. no suministra armas salvo las de autodefensa, ni armas que permitan el choque de armas vinculadas y, sobre todo, ninguna que pueda desencadenar una escalada nuclear. Estos son los tres noes del Presidente Biden.</p><p>¿Cómo pretende Ucrania alcanzar sus objetivos militares?</p><p>El Jefe del Estado Mayor ucraniano, General Zalushniy, declaró recientemente: «Necesito 300 carros de combate, entre 600 y 700 vehículos de combate de infantería y 500 obuses para hacer retroceder a las tropas rusas a las posiciones que tenían antes del ataque del 24 de febrero. Sin embargo, con lo que recibe, «no es posible realizar grandes operaciones». Sin embargo, es dudoso que las fuerzas armadas ucranianas dispongan aún de un número suficiente de soldados aptos para poder utilizar estos sistemas de armas, en vista de las grandes pérdidas de los últimos meses. En cualquier caso, la declaración del general Zalushnij también explica por qué las entregas de armas occidentales no permiten a Ucrania alcanzar sus objetivos militares, sino que se limitan a prolongar la guerra. Además, Rusia podría superar la escalada occidental en cualquier momento con una propia.</p><p>En el debate alemán, estas conexiones no se comprenden o se ignoran. También influye la forma en que algunos aliados intentan presionar públicamente al gobierno alemán para que suministre carros de combate Leopard 2. Esto nunca había ocurrido en la OTAN. Demuestra hasta qué punto ha sufrido la posición de Alemania en la alianza como consecuencia del debilitamiento de la Bundeswehr y con qué empeño persiguen algunos aliados el objetivo de exponer a Alemania ante Rusia en particular.</p><p>¿Qué alimenta la opinión de Zelenski de que es posible expulsar a los rusos de Ucrania?</p><p>Es posible que con los sistemas de armamento que se les prometieron en la próxima conferencia de donantes del 20 de enero, las fuerzas armadas ucranianas puedan defenderse algo más eficazmente de las ofensivas rusas que tendrán lugar en las próximas semanas. Pero no les permitirá retomar los territorios ocupados. Según el Jefe del Estado Mayor estadounidense, General Mark Milley, Ucrania ha conseguido lo que podía militarmente. Más no es posible. Por lo tanto, ahora deben lanzarse esfuerzos diplomáticos para lograr una paz negociada. Comparto esta opinión.</p><p>Hay que tener en cuenta que las fuerzas rusas parecen tener la intención de defender el territorio conquistado y conquistar el resto del Donbás para consolidar los territorios que se han anexionado. Han adaptado bien sus posiciones defensivas al terreno y las han fortificado fuertemente. Los ataques a estas posiciones requieren una gran cantidad de fuerza y la voluntad de aceptar pérdidas significativas. La retirada de la región de Kherson ha liberado unos 22.000 efectivos listos para el combate para las ofensivas. Además, se están desplegando más unidades de combate en la región como refuerzo.</p><p>Pero entonces, ¿qué sentido tienen las entregas de armas que no permiten alcanzar el objetivo de Zelensky?</p><p>Los actuales esfuerzos de EEUU por inducir a los europeos a entregar más armas pueden tener algo que ver con esta evolución de la situación. Hay que distinguir entre las razones expresadas públicamente y las decisiones concretas del gobierno alemán. Sería ir demasiado lejos entrar en todo el espectro de esta discusión. Sin embargo, yo esperaría que el Gobierno Federal estuviera realmente asesorado de forma competente sobre esta cuestión y -lo que es quizá aún más importante- que fuera receptivo y tuviera una capacidad de juicio acorde con la importancia de este asunto.</p><p>El Gobierno alemán ya ha ido muy lejos en su apoyo a Ucrania. Es cierto que las entregas de armas aún no convierten a Alemania en parte en el conflicto. Pero junto con la formación de los soldados ucranianos en estas armas, estamos ayudando a Ucrania a alcanzar sus objetivos militares. Por ello, el Servicio Científico del Bundestag alemán ha declarado en su informe de 16 de marzo de 2022 que esto abandona la zona segura de la no guerra. Estados Unidos también entrenará a soldados ucranianos en Alemania. La Ley Fundamental contiene en su preámbulo un estricto mandamiento de paz para nuestro país. Así pues, la Ley Fundamental sólo tolera el apoyo a una parte beligerante si es adecuado para facilitar una solución pacífica. Por lo tanto, el gobierno alemán tiene el deber de explicar a la población alemana dentro de qué límites y con qué objetivo está prestando su apoyo a Ucrania. Por último, también habría que mostrar al gobierno ucraniano los límites de su apoyo. Incluso el Presidente Biden declaró hace algún tiempo en un artículo sobre su nombre que EE.UU. seguirá apoyando militarmente a Ucrania, pero también sus esfuerzos por lograr una paz negociada en este conflicto.</p><p>Desde hace semanas, el ejército ucraniano se enfrenta sin éxito a los rusos. Sin embargo, Zelensky habla de reconquista. ¿Es propaganda o existe realmente esta posibilidad?</p><p>No, según el Estado Mayor estadounidense y el ucraniano, las fuerzas armadas ucranianas no están en condiciones de hacerlo. Ambas partes enfrentadas se encuentran de nuevo en un punto muerto, agravado por las restricciones debidas a la época del año. Así que ahora sería el momento adecuado para reanudar las negociaciones interrumpidas. Las entregas de armas significan lo contrario, es decir, que la guerra se prolonga sin sentido, con aún más muertos en ambos bandos y la continuación de la destrucción del país. Pero también con la consecuencia de que nos veremos arrastrados aún más profundamente a esta guerra. Incluso el Secretario General de la OTAN advirtió recientemente contra la posibilidad de que los combates se convirtieran en una guerra entre la OTAN y Rusia.</p><p>Vuelve a decir que estamos en un «punto muerto». ¿Qué quiere decir con eso?</p><p>Una posición de partida positiva para un acuerdo negociado había surgido, por ejemplo, a finales de marzo del año pasado, cuando los rusos decidieron alejarse de Kiev y concentrarse en el este y en el Donbás. Esto hizo posible las negociaciones de Estambul. Una situación similar se produjo en septiembre, antes de que Rusia llevara a cabo la movilización parcial. Las oportunidades que surgieron entonces no se han aprovechado. Ahora sería el momento de volver a negociar, y tampoco estamos aprovechando esta oportunidad, sino haciendo lo contrario: estamos enviando armas y escalando. Este es otro aspecto que revela la falta de previsión de la política de seguridad y de juicio estratégico.</p><p>También ha mencionado en su texto que el Ministro de Defensa ruso, Shoigu, se ha mostrado dispuesto a negociar…</p><p>… Putin ha hecho lo mismo. El 30 de septiembre, cuando declaró territorio ruso otras dos regiones, Putin volvió a ofrecer explícitamente negociaciones. Entre tanto, lo ha hecho varias veces. Sin embargo, Shoigu no puso condiciones, pero Putin, por así decirlo, ha subido el listón al decir que estamos dispuestos a negociar, pero, por supuesto, esto presupone que la otra parte reconozca los territorios que nos hemos anexionado. De ello se desprende que cuanto más dura la guerra, más se endurecen las posiciones de ambos bandos. Pues Zelensky dijo que sólo negociaría cuando los rusos se hubieran retirado completamente de Ucrania. Esto hace que la solución sea cada vez más difícil, pero aún no está descartada.</p><p>Me gustaría hablar de un acontecimiento más. La Sra. Merkel dijo en una entrevista …</p><p>… sí, lo que ha dicho está claro. Sólo negoció el acuerdo de Minsk II para ganar tiempo para Ucrania. Y Ucrania también había aprovechado este tiempo para armarse militarmente. Así lo confirmó el ex Presidente francés Hollande.</p><p>Petro Poroshenko, el expresidente ucraniano, también ha dicho lo mismo.</p><p>Rusia, comprensiblemente, lo califica de fraude. Y Merkel confirma que Rusia fue engañada deliberadamente. Puedes juzgarlo como quieras, pero es una flagrante quiebra de la confianza y una cuestión de previsibilidad política. Sin embargo, no puede discutirse que la negativa del gobierno ucraniano -a sabiendas de este engaño intencionado- a aplicar el acuerdo pocos días antes de que comenzara la guerra fue uno de los detonantes de la misma. El gobierno alemán se había comprometido en la resolución de la ONU a aplicar el «paquete completo» de medidas acordadas. Además, la Canciller alemana, junto con los demás participantes en el formato de Normandía, firmó una declaración sobre la resolución en la que, una vez más, se comprometía explícitamente a aplicar los acuerdos de Minsk.</p><p>¿No es eso también una violación del derecho internacional?</p><p>Sí, es una violación del derecho internacional, eso está claro. El daño es inmenso. Hay que imaginarse la situación actual. Los que querían hacer la guerra desde el principio y siguen queriéndola han adoptado la postura de que no podemos negociar con Putin. De todos modos, no cumplirá los acuerdos. Ahora resulta que somos nosotros los que no respetamos los acuerdos internacionales.</p><p>Que yo sepa, los rusos cumplen sus acuerdos, incluso durante la guerra actual Rusia ha seguido suministrando gas. Pero la Sra. Baerbock ha anunciado de todo corazón: «¡No queremos más gas ruso!». En respuesta, Rusia ha estrangulado el volumen. ¿No es eso lo que pasó?</p><p>Sí, dijimos que no queríamos más gas ruso. Todas las repercusiones, la crisis energética, la recesión económica, etc., son el resultado de la decisión del gobierno alemán, no de una decisión del gobierno ruso.</p><p>Pero si escuchas o ves las noticias -también aquí en Suiza- está la crisis energética por la decisión de Putin de hacer la guerra a Ucrania.</p><p>Dos veces en el pasado hubo dificultades en el suministro de gas causadas por Ucrania. Deberíamos ser sinceros al respecto. Rusia seguiría suministrando, pero no queremos nada más de allí porque atacó a Ucrania. Luego está la cuestión: ¿Quién voló realmente el North Stream II?</p><p>¿Tiene una evaluación de la voladura?</p><p>No, eso sería pura especulación. Hay pruebas circunstanciales, como suele ocurrir, pero no pruebas. Al menos ninguna que haya llegado a conocimiento público. Pero puedes estar seguro: El sol lo sacará a la luz.</p><p>¿Qué experiencia tiene en negociaciones con Rusia?</p><p>He llevado a cabo muchas negociaciones con Rusia, por ejemplo sobre la contribución rusa a la misión de la OTAN en Kosovo. Estados Unidos nos había pedido que lo hiciéramos porque no podían llegar a un acuerdo con Rusia. Rusia estaba finalmente dispuesta a poner sus tropas a las órdenes de un comandante alemán de la OTAN. En la década de 1990 se desarrolló una estrecha coordinación política y cooperación militar entre la OTAN y Rusia, regulada desde 1997 por el Tratado Básico OTAN-Rusia. Los rusos son duros negociadores, pero cuando se alcanza un resultado común, éste se mantiene.</p><p>¿Cuál fue el resultado?</p><p>Los rusos querían tener algún tipo de derecho de codecisión en las negociaciones sobre el Tratado Básico. Eso no era posible. Pero encontramos la manera de hallar soluciones comunes en los casos en que se ven afectados los intereses de seguridad de una u otra parte. Por desgracia, tras la guerra de Georgia, la OTAN suspendió en gran medida su cooperación. También se ha demostrado en el período previo a la guerra de Ucrania que los acuerdos creados en tiempos de buena sintonía para la resolución de crisis y conflictos tienen su valor cuando surgen tensiones. Desgraciadamente, esto no se entendió.</p><p>General Kujat, gracias por la entrevista.</p><p>Entrevista Thomas Kaiser</p><p>* El General (retirado) Harald Kujat, nacido el 1 de marzo de 1942, fue, entre otras cosas, Inspector General de las Fuerzas Armadas alemanas y, como Presidente del Comité Militar de la OTAN, el militar de más alto rango de la OTAN. Al mismo tiempo, fue Presidente del Consejo OTAN-Rusia y del Consejo de la Asociación Euroatlántica del Estado Mayor Conjunto. Por sus servicios, Harald Kujat fue condecorado con un gran número de distinciones, entre ellas la Cruz de Comendador de la Legión de Honor de la República de Francia, la Cruz de Comendador de la Orden del Mérito de Letonia, Estonia y Polonia, la Legión del Mérito de Estados Unidos, la Gran Cinta de la Orden de Leopoldo del Reino de Bélgica, la Gran Cruz de la Orden del Mérito de la República Federal de Alemania, así como otras altas distinciones, entre ellas las de Malta, Hungría y la OT</p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-46066750604590843392022-12-14T11:30:00.009+01:002022-12-14T11:30:58.125+01:00Alex Krainer: Inflation: the lessons from last empire's collapse<div><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">"There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know" - Harry Truman</p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 19px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">So far, the dreams of 1,000-year empires and stable world domination have eluded the ruling elites throughout history and across the globe. Empires arise, sustain themselves for a century, two or three, and then rapidly decay and collapse. The collapse may appear relatively fast and obvious in hindsight, but in reality it spans decades, may appear as a series of temporary crises and only become obvious very late into the slow-motion train wreck.<span></span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">Nonetheless, the fatal imbalances that corrode an empire’s political, economic, and social foundations do become discernible well in advance of the ultimate collapse. As a rule these imbalances emerge as consequences of too much war and too much debt. As they decay, empires always degrade their own currency in the process of extracting wealth from the population to funnel it toward the ruling oligarchy and the military. In ancient times this was done by diluting gold or silver content of the coins in circulation. In modern times, it is done through inflation of the currency.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">The most recent instance of this process was the collapse of the Soviet Union through the decade of the 1980s. Soviet Union was a global superpower counting nearly 300 million people and an empire spanning over 40% of Eurasian land mass. In addition to a large, well educated population and a broadly diversified industrial base, USSR controlled a formidable treasure trove of natural resources containing some of the world’s most abundant reserves of natural gas, oil, coal, iron ore, tin, lead, gold, silver, palladium, platinum, diamonds, timber, rare earth minerals and arable land.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">In the post World War II period the USSR developed rapidly and its population even enjoyed a period of relatively high prosperity during the 1960s and 1970s. However, economic growth started to slow down in the late 1970s and from 1977 until its final collapse in August of 1991, Soviet economy experienced an accelerating economic deterioration leading to the worst post-war economic depression.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">GDP growth: from 1979 through 1982, GDP growth slowed to about 1.4%, picked up slightly, to about 2% in 1983/84 but then declined again, dropping close to zero during most of the 1980s</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">Defence spending: defence spending was overstretched at the expense of civilian production; it had grown by 50% from 1965 to 1981, from 45 billion roubles to over 80 billion, bringing the country’s defence burden to nearly 13% of the GDP.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">Constraints to growth: Mikhail Gorbachev’s efforts to institute reforms of the system and reignite growth were constrained, particularly on the energy front. As the demand for energy grew, cost of offsetting the declining oil production started to rise rapidly.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">Budget deficits: Soviet government spending rose a record 30 billion roubles in 1986 and another 18 billion roubles in 1987 while tax revenues grew only 5 billion roubles. This gave rise to a six-fold increase of the nation’s budget deficit from 1984 to 1987, to 7% of the GDP. CIA’s analysts expressed dismay to find that, “Moscow is essentially financing its deficits by printing money… from thin air.” [1]</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">Inflation: while inflation held steady at around 2.2% during the five years from 1982 to 1987, in 1987 it shot up to 9% and continued to creep up during the remainder of the decade.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">In spite of the many obvious differences between the USSR and the United States, many of these differences are in fact rather superficial while similarities and parallels may be more structural and relevant. Soviet government was able to stave off economic collapse and hyperinflation because it had full control over the wholesale and retail prices and over central bank’s monetary policy including money supply and interest rates.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">However, controlling all the levers of state power did not exempt the Soviet state from fundamental principles of economics. When price controls were finally abolished on 2nd January 1992, inflationary pressures burst through the open dam and prices of industrial and consumer goods recorded an almost immediate 500% jump. Within the year, inflation reached 2,500%. The inevitable readjustments, delayed over decades of central planning and misallocation of resources, plunged the nation into one of the deepest and longest economic depressions ever recorded.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">Today, the economy of the United States (ditto UK, EU and Japan) is similarly mired in a profound crisis, and unresolved economic imbalances: the empire is overstretched militarily, “defense” spending and budget deficits continue to grow and are being covered by printing money out of tin air. While the American government doesn’t practice central planning or price controls, the Federal Reserve has effectively taken over this role by manipulating interest rates and commodity prices. As in the Soviet Union, the Fed’s meddling resulted in massive misallocation of resources spawning a large economy of zombie corporations and unicorns.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">There can be little doubt that American economy is more robust than that of the late Soviet Union. But history is clear on this: no empire, regardless how powerful at its zenith, is exempt from the laws of economics and we should expect more economic pain ahead as the empire’s foundations continue to erode. One very likely outcome of the coming crisis could be the collapse of the currency and an acceleration of inflation, first among the empire’s vassals (UK, EU and Japan), followed by the mothership, the United States.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #313131; font-family: Helvetica;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">Inflation is the greatest destroyer of investor wealth and investors should take active steps to protect their portfolios before the full-fledged crisis erupts. Experience and empirical evidence suggests that there is one best way to protect wealth from the ravages of inflation</span></span></p></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-19561545463641691042022-12-13T08:26:00.003+01:002022-12-13T08:26:16.003+01:00Serguéi Karaganov: Asistimos al surgimiento de un nuevo mundo <p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">La crisis no comenzó en 2022, sino a mediados de los años 90, al igual que la Segunda Guerra Mundial, que comenzó realmente con la Paz de Versalles, que fue injusta y sentó al 100% las bases de la misma.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Hace 25-27 años, Occidente se negó a hacer una paz justa con Rusia. Y, como le pareció a muchos en su momento, creó un nuevo sistema para su dominación basado en «reglas». Otros se refirieron más tarde a él como imperialismo liberal global. Pero el sistema fue construido sobre la arena. En él se colocó una mina de la Tercera Guerra Mundial que tarde o temprano podía explotar. Los veteranos como yo suelen compartir recuerdos, a menudo inventados. En mi caso puedo documentar que desde 1996/1997 ya escribía y decía que un mundo basado en la expansión de la OTAN y la dominación occidental conduce a la guerra.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">La hegemonía de Occidente comenzó a desmoronarse en 1999 cuando, en un frenesí de impunidad, violó a Yugoslavia. El desmoronamiento fue a más cuando, eufórico, se metió en Afganistán, luego en Irak y perdió, devaluando su entonces superioridad militar y su liderazgo moral. Al mismo tiempo, se producían dos procesos aún más importantes. Rusia -convencida tras Yugoslavia, Afganistán, Irak y la retirada de Estados Unidos del Tratado ABM- de que era imposible construir una paz justa y duradera con Occidente, comenzó a restablecer su poderío militar. Y así, una vez más, como había hecho en los años 60 y 80, comenzó a derribar los cimientos de la dominación occidental en la economía, la política y la cultura mundiales, que se basaba en la superioridad militar. Este dominio duró quinientos años y comenzó a desmoronarse en la década de 1960. En la década de 1990, debido al colapso de la URSS, parecía haber regresado, pero ahora Rusia ha empezado a derribar de nuevo esos cimientos.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Al mismo tiempo, Occidente dejó pasar el ascenso de China. Paralelamente cometió un error aún más sorprendente. A finales de la década de 2000, Occidente comenzó a frenar a China y a Rusia al mismo tiempo, empujándolas hacia un bloque político-militar común que no entrara en conflicto con sus intereses fundamentales.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">La manifestación del poderoso desmoronamiento de Occidente fue la crisis de 2008, que tuvo como telón de fondo los procesos antes mencionados y socavó la confianza en su liderazgo moral, económico e intelectual. Desde finales de la década de 2000, Occidente comenzó a desatar la Guerra Fría. Pero todavía había una ventana de oportunidad para acordar con Rusia y China los términos del nuevo mundo. Existió en algún momento entre 2008 y 2013. Esta ventana no se ha utilizado. Desde 2014, Occidente intensificó su política activa de contención de China y Rusia, incluyendo un golpe de Estado en Kiev para preparar a las tropas de choque y tratar de socavar a Rusia para recuperar la hegemonía.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Occidente, al perder terreno militar, político y moral, incluso su núcleo moral (recordemos el rechazo de Europa al cristianismo ya en 2002), pasó al contraataque histérico. La guerra se hacía inevitable, la cuestión era dónde y cuándo.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Al mismo tiempo, los problemas globales a los que se enfrenta la humanidad -el clima, la energía, la escasez de agua y de alimentos, el crecimiento explosivo de la desigualdad dentro del propio Occidente y la erosión de la clase media- no se resolvieron, sino que se agravaron. Su no resolución exigió maniobras dilatorias. Eso fue un poderoso factor en dirección a la guerra.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Durante dos años, la Covid se utilizó como sustituto de la guerra, pero una vez que su efecto se ha diluido, se hizo inevitable que se produjese un choque aquí o allá. Consciente de ello, Rusia decidió atacar primero.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Esta guerra tiene varios objetivos: impedir que Occidente cree una cabeza de puente militar ofensiva en las fronteras de Rusia, que se estaba creando rápidamente, y preparar a Rusia para una existencia a largo plazo en un mundo de conflictos y cambios rápidos, que requiere un modelo diferente de sociedad y economía: un modelo de movilización.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">El siguiente objetivo es purgar a la elite rusa de los elementos pro-occidentales y compradores. Pero quizás el contenido principal de esta guerra u operación en términos de la historia mundial, no sólo de la historia rusa, es la lucha por la liberación final del mundo de quinientos años de yugo occidental, que reprimió a los países y civilizaciones, imponiéndoles condiciones desiguales de interacción. Primero simplemente saqueándolos, a través del colonialismo, luego del neocolonialismo, y después a través del imperialismo globalista de los últimos treinta años.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">La guerra de Ucrania, al igual que muchos acontecimientos de la última década, no trata sólo y no tanto del desmoronamiento del viejo mundo, sino también de la creación de un mundo nuevo, más libre, más justo, más plural y policromo política y culturalmente.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">El significado global de la lucha en Ucrania es la devolución de la libertad, la dignidad y la autonomía a los no occidentales (proponemos llamarlos con otro nombre: la <em style="box-sizing: inherit;">Mayoría Mundial</em>, que antes era reprimida y robada y humillada culturalmente). Y, por supuesto, una parte justa de la riqueza mundial.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Rusia no puede dejar de ganar esta guerra, aunque será difícil. Muchos de nosotros no habíamos contado con una disposición tan alta de Occidente para luchar militarmente, ni tampoco con una disposición tan alta de una parte de los ucranianos, convertida en algo parecido a los nazis alemanes enfrentados contra la URSS en el pasado, por luchar desesperadamente.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Probablemente, dadas las tendencias generales del mundo y el equilibrio de poder mundial, deberíamos haber golpeado antes. Pero no conozco el nivel de preparación de nuestras Fuerzas Armadas. Aunque creo que en 2014 deberíamos haber actuado con más decisión, abandonando las esperanzas de un acuerdo.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Vivimos un periodo peligroso, al borde de una tercera guerra mundial en toda regla que podría acabar con la existencia de la humanidad. Pero si Rusia gana, lo que es más que probable, y el conflicto no llega a una guerra nuclear total, no deberíamos considerar las próximas décadas como una época de peligroso caos (como dice la mayoría de Occidente). Llevamos demasiado tiempo viviendo en esas condiciones.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">El viejo sistema de instituciones y regímenes ya se ha derrumbado (libertad de comercio, respeto a la propiedad privada), instituciones como la OMC, el Banco Mundial o el FMI, la OSCE me temo y la UE, están llegando a sus últimos años. Empiezan a surgir nuevas instituciones a las que pertenece el futuro. Son la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghai, la ASEAN+, la Organización de la Unidad Africana y la Asociación Económica Integral Regional (RCEP). El Banco Asiático de Desarrollo ya presta mucho más dinero que el Banco Mundial.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">No todas las nuevas instituciones sobrevivirán, esperemos que sobrevivan algunas de las antiguas, especialmente en el sistema de la ONU, que necesita urgentemente una reforma, principalmente para la representación de la Mayoría Mundial , y no de Occidente, en la secretaría. Lo principal es no permitir que el Occidente perdedor frene la historia o la descarrile con una guerra mundial.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">No sólo los países de la Mayoría Mundial, sino también los países occidentales pueden vivir bastante felices en este mundo, en el que estos últimos han invertido muchos de sus eruditos, escritores – Cervantes, Shakespeare, Stendhal, Hemingway, los grandes rusos. Occidente simplemente perderá la oportunidad de saquear al resto del mundo, tendrá que encogerse un poco. Vivir dentro de sus posibilidades.</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #1a1a1a; font-family: Merriweather, Georgia, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 1.75em;">Temo que este nuevo mundo que está tomando forma ahora se cree más allá de mi vida intelectual o física. Pero mis jóvenes colegas y seguramente sus hijos verán ese mundo. Pero hay que luchar por este hermoso mundo, en primer lugar evitando una tercera guerra mundial, por el intento de venganza de Occidente. Fue en Europa donde se desencadenaron las dos primeras guerras mundiales. Rusia lucha ahora, entre otras cosas, para que no se den las condiciones necesarias para una tercera. Pero los conflictos se producirán en una época de rápidos cambios. Así pues, la lucha por la paz debería ser uno de los temas principales de nuestra comunidad intelectual y del mundo en general, quizá también el foco de atención del Club Valdai.</p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-79519459565637631572022-11-17T20:56:00.005+01:002022-11-17T20:56:55.900+01:00Dimity Orlov: 2022: The Year the US lost All Respect<p style="color: #333333; font-family: Oswald, sans-serif; font-size: 2.08em; font-weight: 400; margin: 30px 0px 0px; text-align: left;"><br /></p><p><small class="single-by" style="color: #777777; font-family: "PT Serif", serif; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.5em; text-align: justify; text-transform: capitalize;"></small><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "PT Serif", serif; font-size: 13.5px; text-align: justify;"></span></p><div class="entry" style="color: #333333; font-family: "PT Serif", serif; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 1.4em; text-align: justify;"><p style="font-size: 1.05em;">A couple of days ago there was a terrorist attack in the center of İstanbul, Turkey. The details are not important and I wouldn’t tell you about them in any case because I am not a media whore who empowers terrorists by giving them free advertising. What’s important is Turkey’s official reaction to American official condolences that were offered after the fact: Turkey refused to accept them. Head of Turkey’s foreign ministry Süleyman Soylu expressed this plainly enough: “We do not accept condolences of the American embassy.”<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p style="font-size: 1.05em;">He said some other interesting things too. Turkey knows where the attack was coordinated: in the US. Who carried it out doesn’t matter; those were just “pawns.” And he characterized the US behavior in this matter as “the return of the murderer to the scene of the crime.” Is this respectful or polite? Yes it is; this is perfectly proper and diplomatic. But is this how one treats one’s lord and master? No, not at all! The inevitable conclusion is that the US no longer matters and you can call US officials terrorists and spit in their face in public. They’ll just take out their handkerchiefs, daintily dab the spittle that’s dripping off their faces and pretend that none of this has actually happened. Meanwhile, their pet journos will sheepishly look the other way.</p><p style="font-size: 1.05em;">And so most Americans won’t even know of this. And if told of this, most Americans would think, “Hmm. Turkey… oh yeah, Thanksgiving is just a week away, isn’t it? Delicious, juicy turkey…” and then just hum to themselves Homer Simpson-like, lost in an anticipatory tryptophan daze, thinking about stuffing and cranberry sauce and pumpkin pie and big, sweaty men running around and colliding on a field, ruining their knees and giving each other concussions, forever unable to agree on who owns a certain oblong leather object…</p><p style="font-size: 1.05em;">Perhaps it’s better not to tell them about this. There is an old saying: “Don’t pick up a happy baby.” Or a miserable baby. Or any sort of baby, unless it’s yours. And this is definitely not my baby. But since you are reading this, <a href="https://boosty.to/cluborlov/posts/4bb46efb-ad14-4327-9142-ca19ccbd5032" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">I’ll tell you</a>.</p></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-63105301538691970662022-11-17T20:49:00.002+01:002022-11-17T20:49:28.917+01:00Declaración del Representante Permanente Vassily Nebenzia en la sesión informativa del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas sobre Ucrania<p>Señor presidente,</p><p>Debemos expresar nuestro agradecimiento a nuestros colegas albaneses y estadounidenses por convocar esta reunión, a pesar de que lo hicieron la semana pasada sin ni siquiera formular el tema y, por lo tanto, demostrando, como podemos ver ahora, una perspicacia excepcional. Si no se hubiera programado esta reunión, hubiéramos tenido que convocarla para abordar los intentos de Ucrania y Polonia de provocar un enfrentamiento directo entre Rusia y la OTAN.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p>Las declaraciones irresponsables de los líderes de estos dos estados no pueden ser percibidas de otra manera. Tome la declaración de V.Zelensky. “¡Hay que poner al terrorista en su lugar! Cuanto más tiempo sienta Rusia la impunidad, más amenazas habrá para todos los que puedan ser alcanzados por los misiles rusos. Golpear territorio de la OTAN con misiles... ¡Este es un ataque con misiles rusos contra la seguridad colectiva! Esta es una escalada realmente significativa. ¡Se necesita acción!” Luego expresó sus condolencias a Polonia por la muerte de personas en un “ataque con misiles rusos”, y dijo que Rusia mata “a todos los que puede alcanzar”.</p><p>Subrayo que tales afirmaciones las hace la persona que no puede dejar de ser consciente de que fueron misiles de defensa aérea ucranianos los que impactaron en el territorio de Polonia. Significa que no nos enfrentamos a otra desinformación más, sino a un intento consciente de arrastrar a la OTAN, que está librando “una guerra por poderes” contra Rusia en Ucrania, a una confrontación directa con nuestro país.</p><p>Las autoridades polacas rusofóbicas fueron casi tan lejos, ya que declararon sin disculparse desde el principio que habían sufrido un ataque por parte de Rusia. El MFA de Polonia incluso convocó al embajador ruso para una fuerte gestión. Esto sucedió a pesar de que las fotos que se publicaron en las redes sociales "sobre olores calientes" no dejan dudas de que Polonia había sido alcanzada por misiles lanzados desde un sistema de defensa aérea ucraniano. De hecho, esto ya ha sido confirmado expresamente incluso en la OTAN y en Occidente en general.</p><p>Si no hubiera sido por esa evidencia, todos los hechos se habrían ocultado al público y Rusia habría sido proclamada parte culpable. Pero es difícil negar lo obvio, como en el caso del ataque de la UAF en Kramatorsk el 8 de abril, que intentaron hacer pasar por un crimen ruso, pero las fotos de los testigos impidieron esta cruel provocación deliberada. Nuestros antiguos socios occidentales ya no recuerdan esto, y el régimen de Kiev ha previsto sanciones para todos los que publiquen materiales en las redes sociales que describan los efectos de cualquier ataque militar, porque al hacerlo, los ucranianos pueden frustrar inadvertidamente más provocaciones que sus autoridades puedan tramar. </p><p>Volvamos al trágico incidente. No puedo dejar de mencionar que la defensa aérea ucraniana ha tenido durante mucho tiempo una mala reputación, que al menos comenzó en octubre de 2001, cuando un avión civil ruso en ruta de Tel Aviv a Novosibirsk fue derribado sobre el Mar Negro durante un ejercicio militar. El accidente cobró 78 vidas. Luego, en 2014, muchos recordaron esta tragedia cuando ocurrió otro accidente aéreo. Me refiero al MH17, que fue derribado en Donbas. Pero los llamados investigadores internacionales, incluida Ucrania, nunca consideraron la versión de que Kiev pudo haber sido responsable de eso. En los últimos meses, hemos visto muchas fotos que muestran los efectos de los misiles de defensa aérea ucranianos que golpean edificios residenciales, detrás de los cuales se habían desplegado los sistemas de defensa en varias ciudades de Ucrania. Hay intentos torpes de hacer pasar estas imágenes como evidencia de las consecuencias de los ataques rusos, los ataques que se lanzan desde nuestras armas de alta precisión contra instalaciones militares e infraestructura crítica relacionada. Al decir eso, olvidan mencionar que si realmente hubieran sido ataques rusos, no habría quedado nada de esas casas. </p><p>Colegas,</p><p>Hace tiempo que dejamos de sorprendernos por sus intentos de culpar a Rusia de todo, en todas las circunstancias, en contra de todos los hechos y el sentido común. Hoy, a pesar de la lógica obvia detrás de la provocación ucraniano-polaca, muchos representantes de los estados occidentales dieron a entender en sus comentarios que incluso si los misiles habían sido lanzados por Ucrania, era culpa de Rusia de todos modos, porque Rusia destruye infraestructura crítica. La cojera de esta lógica se puede ver mejor si consideramos el bombardeo irresponsable de la central nuclear de Zaporozhye, que, como todos saben, Ucrania respalda. Algunos de ustedes repitieron su mantra astuto favorito: "no nos habríamos encontrado donde estamos, si no hubiera sido por Rusia". Vuelvo a recordar que no hubiésemos estado donde estamos, si no hubiera tenido lugar en Kiev en 2014 un mortífero golpe de Estado inconstitucional con participación directa de los estados occidentales. Recuerdo que los líderes de ese golpe desde el día 1 adoptaron un curso de distorsión de la historia y represión del idioma ruso, y así provocaron un violento conflicto civil interno. No estaríamos discutiendo nada de esto ahora, si no hubiera consentido al régimen de Kiev en su falta de voluntad para implementar los Acuerdos de Minsk, y si no hubiera encubierto su guerra de 8 años contra la gente de Donbas. En tal caso, no hubiéramos necesitado iniciar nuestra operación militar especial para proteger a esas personas. No estaríamos discutiendo nada de esto ahora, si no hubiera consentido al régimen de Kiev en su falta de voluntad para implementar los Acuerdos de Minsk, y si no hubiera encubierto su guerra de 8 años contra la gente de Donbas. En tal caso, no hubiéramos necesitado iniciar nuestra operación militar especial para proteger a esas personas. No estaríamos discutiendo nada de esto ahora, si no hubiera consentido al régimen de Kiev en su falta de voluntad para implementar los Acuerdos de Minsk, y si no hubiera encubierto su guerra de 8 años contra la gente de Donbas. En tal caso, no hubiéramos necesitado iniciar nuestra operación militar especial para proteger a esas personas.</p><p>Si se abstuvo de interferir y de suministrar armas y municiones a Ucrania, si alentó a los líderes de Ucrania a avanzar hacia la paz en términos realistas en lugar de confabularse con sus delirantes fantasías sobre la posibilidad de conquistar a Rusia (para lo cual el régimen de Zelensky está tirando decenas de miles de soldados en una masacre sin sentido), si no dejara pasar desapercibidos los ataques terroristas de los servicios especiales ucranianos contra Rusia, entonces no tendríamos que lanzar los ataques de alta precisión contra la infraestructura. Pero dado que haces lo que haces, y dado que el régimen de Kiev se atribuye el mérito de logros militares inexistentes, tenemos que perseguir los objetivos de la operación militar especial, al tiempo que reducimos el potencial militar de Ucrania, que se ha mantenido principalmente gracias al abundante flujo de las armas occidentales. Nos acostumbramos a que Ucrania estuviera por encima de cualquier crítica. Cualquier crimen cometido por el régimen de Kiev es ignorado o atribuido por defecto a Rusia. Nos acostumbramos a las detestables falsificaciones sobre Rusia y nuestras fuerzas armadas. Le haré esta pregunta, retórica, por supuesto. ¿Alguno de ustedes ha comentado alguna vez sobre las atrocidades y represiones que el régimen de Kiev utiliza contra los civiles en los territorios bajo su control; sobre los nombres que Kiev llama a esas personas; sobre la tortura a la que los somete Kiev? Esto está sucediendo ahora en Kherson, y antes de eso estaba sucediendo en otras ciudades y pueblos. Todo esto se puede acceder fácilmente en línea. “No, no lo has hecho” es la respuesta, porque esto está más allá de tu horizonte y más allá de tu conciencia arbitraria. Entonces, cuando criticas a alguien, debes mirarte en el espejo.</p><p>Señor presidente,</p><p>Ya que estamos todos reunidos aquí, proporcionaré algunas actualizaciones sobre la participación de la OTAN en el conflicto de Ucrania. La OTAN sigue inundando Ucrania con armas y despliega equipos de instructores y mercenarios extranjeros para operarlas. El ejército estadounidense se ha involucrado activamente en la planificación y coordinación de facto de la acción armada, lo que incluso el Pentágono admitió recientemente.</p><p>No tenemos dudas sobre cómo se utiliza el equipo militar occidental: lanzó ataques dirigidos contra instalaciones civiles. Solo en la semana pasada, numerosos bombardeos de artillería, incluso de HIMARS, tuvieron como objetivo las áreas centrales y los barrios residenciales de Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Stakhanov, Svatovo, otros asentamientos e incluso las ciudades de la región rusa de Belgorod. Se siguen lanzando huelgas contra la central hidroeléctrica de Kakhovskaya, cuya devastación habría desencadenado un gran desastre humanitario. </p><p>No nos hacemos ilusiones de por qué Occidente necesita esto. Para ellos, Ucrania es, entre otros, un sitio de prueba para varios tipos de armamento. El Ministro de Defensa de Ucrania, O.Reznikov, lo confirmó recientemente. Dijo que varios sistemas de armamento occidentales estaban "compitiendo" en Ucrania.</p><p>Señor presidente,</p><p>Estamos muy sorprendidos por los intentos de nuestros colegas occidentales de atribuirse el mérito de las exportaciones de fertilizantes rusos a los países en desarrollo a través del Programa Mundial de Alimentos. El presidente de Francia, E. Macron, anunció que supuestamente se había establecido el canal para las entregas gracias a los esfuerzos de Francia y el PMA. Usó el pronombre "nosotros". Otras delegaciones occidentales hicieron afirmaciones similares hoy. Me pregunto a quién se refiere ese "nosotros". Recuerdo que se trataba de los fertilizantes que los estados occidentales guardaban en sus territorios y que la propia Rusia se ofreció a transferir a los estados en desarrollo. Occidente, en particular la Unión Europea, no solo no facilitó, sino que se opuso a esto. Ahora se hacen pasar hipócritamente como salvadores de las naciones en desarrollo. Una vez más, los fertilizantes que van a África son los fertilizantes que fueron “congelados” en los puertos europeos debido a la política de sanciones de la UE. Rusia propuso enviar los fertilizantes a los países necesitados de forma gratuita. Eso es lo que pasa ahora bajo la mediación del PMA, al que le estamos pagando los servicios.</p><p>Señor presidente,</p><p>Sería ingenuo pensar que todo el apoyo militar y financiero occidental a Ucrania se utiliza según lo previsto. Citamos bastante evidencia para demostrar que una parte considerable de esas armas terminaron en manos de terroristas y criminales, manteniendo conflictos en todo el mundo; y que grandes volúmenes de recursos fueron simplemente saqueados. Parece que los proveedores de esta “asistencia” finalmente han venido a pensar en esto.</p><p>El 7 de noviembre, un grupo de expertos estadounidenses fue enviado a Ucrania para verificar las entregas de armas a Kiev. Resultó que EE. UU. tenía el control solo de la décima parte, lo que equivalía a 22.000 artículos. El destino de las otras armas sigue sin estar claro.</p><p>Paralelamente a esto, después del colapso del intercambio criptográfico FTX y la desaparición literal de sus activos por valor de miles de millones, surgieron algunos hechos fascinantes con respecto a los contratos de FTX con el gobierno de Ucrania. El fundador y propietario de FTX es uno de los principales donantes del Partido Demócrata de los Estados Unidos, que desempeña el papel principal en la asignación de fondos a Kiev. Estas tramas no nos parecen sorprendentes, pero seguramente podrían parecerlo a los contribuyentes estadounidenses.</p><p>Voces tímidas de la razón que suenan ya en occidente, se dispersan en el alboroto agresivo de quienes buscan desencadenar las hostilidades a toda costa y derrotar a Rusia con la ayuda de Ucrania. Por ejemplo, el secretario general de la OTAN, J. Stoltenberg, dijo que la Alianza consideraba inaceptable cualquier contacto dirigido a un acuerdo que tuviera en cuenta la posición y los intereses de Rusia. El ex representante especial de EE. UU. para Ucrania, K. Volker, emitió un artículo en el que condicionaba la normalización de las relaciones entre Rusia y Occidente a la derrota militar de Rusia, el cambio de liderazgo y la reconsideración de nuestras fronteras nacionales actuales.</p><p>Occidente está tratando de transferir la responsabilidad de todos sus pecados a Rusia, mientras usa la plataforma de esta Organización para esos propósitos egoístas. Esto quedó claro el lunes 14 de noviembre en el período extraordinario de sesiones de la Asamblea General. Los patrocinadores occidentales de un proyecto de resolución sobre “reparaciones” no explicaron (incluso en términos básicos amplios) qué tipo de mecanismo de reparación por daños pretenden establecer. En cambio, solo hicieron que los estados en desarrollo suscribieran un texto politizado legalmente defectuoso, destinado a “legalizar” la expropiación de los bienes de otra persona. Pero esta vez la campaña occidental de chantaje, coerción e intimidación flaqueó claramente.</p><p>Los resultados de la votación, en los que más de la mitad de los estados miembros se negaron a apoyar esta manifestación de la narrativa antirrusa occidental, se explican por sí mismos. Para la mayoría de los países, incluidos aquellos que se vieron obligados a votar "sí", el doble rasero de nuestros colegas occidentales es obvio, al igual que su falta de voluntad para rendir cuentas por sus fechorías: esclavitud, colonialismo, el deseo de contraponer el derecho internacional con las "reglas- orden basado” donde las reglas se establecen por sí mismas.</p><p>El mundo en desarrollo podría ver una vez más que la crisis ucraniana es solo una moneda de cambio en los planes occidentales, un instrumento para castigar a los no deseados, subyugar a los dependientes y tratar de mantener su dominio global que se desvanece en el mundo multipolar en evolución. </p><p><br /></p><p>Gracias.</p><p><br /></p><p>16 noviembre 2022</p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-53261506245559238582022-10-18T16:29:00.008+02:002022-10-18T16:30:58.887+02:00Dimitry Orlov: What Western Empire? <p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Some observant people are beginning to suspect that not everything is going perfectly well with the mighty Western Empire headquartered in Washington, DC. Some of the more excitable of these observers are quick to claim that what they are witnessing are early stages of collapse. But these voices are few and far between, while the rest of the observant observers still feel compelled to follow this bit of mental discipline:</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">1. The mighty Western Empire is mighty. This is a tautology and therefore self-evident, brooks no argument and requires no further proof.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">2. Dominating the whole world requires an absolutely astounding level of intelligence. That's because the world is big and complicated.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">3. If the mighty Western Empire appears to do something stunningly stupid, then that's because we ourselves are too stupid to understand the subtlety of its intelligence that's masquerading itself as rank stupidity; see point 2 above as to why.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">4. If the mighty Western Empire appears to engage in what seems like a never-ending sequence of spectacularly dumb and self-destructive moves, then that iteratively reduces to a repeated application of point 3 above.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But then there is the radical, extremist viewpoint: that the mighty Western Empire has already collapsed and continues to exist merely by physical and mental inertia while its leaders try to keep up appearances and postpone the inevitable in order to more thoroughly feather their individual nests. These conspiratorially-minded extremists have the gall imagine that there is no astoundingly brilliant and subtle strategic master plan beyond individual players' efforts to keep getting while the getting is good—or something equally radical and extremist along these general lines.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">What is Pax Americana, defined in a single sentence? Pax Americana is a globalist parasitic regime that attempts to extract wealth from the rest of the world through the imposition of a transnational financial oligarchy backed by a system of worldwide military bases and an expeditionary force that exacts obedience through financial oppression and military violence. Its parasitism rests on two pillars: a monopoly on printing money and the ever-looming threat of horrible military violence. The US dollar monopoly (of which the rapidly declining Euro is a mere concession) was at first (right after World War II) backed not just by military might but by a large industrial base, huge fossil fuel reserves and more than sufficient gold. Over the intervening decades the industrial might has been whittled away and what now remains is a raw materials-based and agrarian economy with an overgrown services sector, all of it operating at a large and constant loss and accumulating debt at an ever-increasing pace.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Oil production peaked around 1970, a run on the dollar followed and its gold backing had to be removed at around the same time. All that remained was a system of global banking backed by the threat of unspeakable military violence. This has worked well enough: the Washingtonians would figure out how to profit from foreign resources and labor and make their demands known. If these demands were not met, there followed economic and political sanctions. And if the sanctions didn't work, then it was time to do some bombing and some genociding. Civilian casualties, a.k.a. collateral damage, were not even counted. What's half a million Iraqis here, half a million Libyans there, a few hundred thousand Syrians, an unknown number of Afghanis?... but it all added up to quite an appalling act of genocide spanning many decades.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But the era when the Washingtonians could threaten the whole world to compel obedience from it has come to an end. Its unsinkable aircraft carrier fleet is now very much sinkable using an entire array of modern weaponry that can be launched from a stand-off distance that is greater than the reach of an aircraft carrier's on-board aircraft. This makes the US aircraft carrier fleet, once the pride of the US Navy that cost more than the entire defense budget of most countries, almost completely useless: still used for political posturing and showing the flag, but forced to scud off if there is a threat of military action nearby. The other pride and joy of the US military—its air defense systems—have been rendered useless by the newer and more advanced hypersonic missiles, while the new air defense systems that Russia has developed and sold around the world can knock down pretty much anything that the US has.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And then there are the heroic North Korean rocket men. In September of 2022, DPRK has pronounced itself a nuclear power. Its nuclear doctrine is as follows: KNDR will use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack, an attack with analogous weapons of mass destruction, and also when threatened (!) with such an attack. Reactions around the world ranged from quiet amazement (a reasonable reaction) to turning away while scoffing. Note to the Pentagon chiefs: do not threaten North Korea or they will nuke Guam, Kadena (Okinawa), and perhaps even California. And then what would they do. The surprising answer is: not much, really!</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Could the North Koreans pull this off? Most likely, yes. After announcing its new status as a nuclear power, DPRK conducted five launches of various rockets, including a ballistic rocket that flew over Japan and came down somewhere in the Pacific. According to Japan's military sources, who were watching nervously, the missile flew 4.500km with a maximum altitude of 970km. The reentry speed was... wait for it... Mach 17! That's hypersound—much too fast for any air and space defense system to intercept. The altitude is impressive too. Satellite generally orbit between 160 and 2.000km. The ISS hangs out at 420km. Comrade Un's rocket touched the sky at 1000km. Not too shabby, eh? But Western mass media would prefer not to discuss such details. Instead, they prefer to recycle tired old fakes, such as the one about Putin handing out viagra to his troops, for them to better rape Ukrainian virgins (Whoa! Where did that come from?) previously used against Qaddafy in Libya.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Instead of paying attention to such nonsense, let us tackle this question head-on: Could DPRK carry out a nuclear attack against the United States and survive? In response, most people scoff: "That would be suicide! The North Koreans have something like a dozen nuclear bombs. Even if their rockets do work as advertised, the US, with its huge nuclear arsenal, would wipe them off the face of the earth..." Not so fast! In the game of geopolitics, the DPRK holds an ace of trumps: geography itself. The Korean peninsula is relatively tiny and is parked right between China and Russia, which are two of the mightiest nuclear powers. Zoom out a bit, and DPRK is just a marker on the Russia-China border. This makes a nuclear strike on North Korea very difficult to distinguish from a nuclear strike on China and/or Russia. And that would be, to put it extra-mildly, a dangerous thing for Americans to do.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Russia and China have integrated their early warning systems, and to them a US launch against North Korea would look very much like a launch against Northern China and/or Russian Far East. To be on the safe side, both Russia and China would respond by executing a launch-on-warning retaliatory strike against the US. This is why North Korea can launch rockets that fly over Japan and over US military bases. Air defense systems are activated and sirens sound, but nothing happens, because the US doesn't have anything that can shoot these rockets down. So, what would happen if one day one of these rockets landed square in the middle of Guam and detonated a nuclear charge?</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">They wouldn't do much of anything. When nuked by North Korea, the Americans would have to, to use that delightful expression, "suck it up." (It describes what a fighter jet pilot has to do if they vomit into their oxygen mask if he doesn't want to pass out from lack of oxygen or burn his lungs by inhaling gastric acid.) As Japanese and South Korean leaders would form an orderly chorus line, seeking an audience with the great and victorious Comrade Un, the North Koreans would celebrate a great strategic victory. Putin would chide them gently; Xi would maintain beatific silence. The rest of the world would look on in slack-jawed amazement, then rush to join BRICS or SCO or one or the other new international organizations that say "America keep out" on their front door. Oh, wait, they are doing that already! Perhaps North Korea won't have to do much of anything either; the world seems to be getting the message as it is.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But the US is not taking this sitting down. In response to this impetuous North Korean provocation, NATO has just launched the military exercise "Steadfast Noon" in Northern Europe (which is right next to Northern Korea... right!). It will involve toy militaries from 14 US colonial possessions and "up to 60 aircraft of various types, including fourth and fifth generation fighter jets, as well as surveillance and tanker aircraft. As in previous years, US B-52 long-range bombers will take part; this year, they will fly from Minot Air Base in North Dakota. Training flights will take place over Belgium, which is hosting the exercise, as well as over the North Sea and the United Kingdom. No live weapons are used." (This is from the web site nato.int.)</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Let's summarize. In response to North Korea declaring itself a nuclear power and announcing a nuclear doctrine of first strike in response to any serious provocation, the US is going to hold exercises over the North Sea, as far as possible from North Korea, using ancient aircraft from North Dakota. The purpose, I suppose, is to give Russian Aerospace Defense Forces something amusing to watch. Rest assured, neither the ancient aircraft from North Dakota, nor any of the rockets they could fire from a safe distance, have any hope of penetrating Russian airspace. No actual nuclear weapons will be involved: "...[W]e seek to create the security environment for a world without nuclear weapons," it says right NATO's web site nato.int. Now, practicing for a nuclear first strike on Russia without any nuclear weapons could, I suppose, be seen as a step in that direction. The problem is, that's not the real world; in the real world there are some 12 thousand nuclear weapons. Most of these are either American or Russian, but a few are North Korean, and these are indeed problematic. The American response to this situation is a psychotic break: "A world full of "nucular" bombs is nasty; give us a different world with bunnies and kittens and unicorns or we'll cry!"</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">If the project of US dominating the entire planet militarily is looking rather hopeless, then what about the various proxy wars the US has been attempting to instigate? The Russians thwarted the US effort to topple the Syrian government. The US State Dept. and the Pentagon competitively supported different terrorist factions; the Russians simply killed them all, mostly from the air. Fomenting separatist conflict between mainland China and Taiwan seems to have gone nowhere in spite of Nancy Pelosi's best efforts; same with the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan (Nancy was there too). And then there is the bleeding sore of the former Ukraine, which is now losing around 500 soldiers a day, a sizable fraction of whom are mercenaries, while Russian battlefield losses are 20 a day at most. NATO keeps racking them up and Russia keeps bowling them over. Now Russia has decided to shift to a different mode by calling up a whopping 1% of its reservists.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have resorted to outright terrorism, ineffectually detonating a trailer full of explosives on the Kerch Bridge which connects Crimea to the mainland, shutting down traffic for an entire day. In response, Russia has started using its rockets to good effect and has shut down much of the Ukraine's electric grid. Since most locomotives in the Ukraine are electric, this will also mean no rail transport and no new deliveries of weapons, armor or ammunition to the battle front. But don't you worry! Ben Hodges the former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, is predicting that "Crimea will be free by summer." Bunnies and kittens and unicorns, I tell you! My prediction is that by next summer there will no longer be much of a Ukraine left; and a lot less of Europe or the US too. A distinct lack of military might, zero real backing for your currency, an economy declining because of very high and increasing energy prices and staggeringly huge levels of debt both public and private spell no end of trouble. The US is no longer in a good position to extort wealth from the rest of the world—except for transient effects related to flight of capital and currency fluctuations. Its biggest victim there is Europe, and that is curious because the US and Europe's financial systems are like conjoined twins; if Europe falls ill, the US is unlikely to remain well. Or, if you like a more vivid metaphor, the US/EU financial supersystem is now like a disemboweled yet still ravenous shark gorging itself on its own billowing entrails.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">And on top of all that the US, and much of the rest of the world, now has high inflation—10% globally and going up. The inflation is structural—related to declining global energy availability and other forms of resource depletion, but nobody knows how to fight structural inflation because at this point everyone involved in finance is an avowed monetarist and believes Milton Friedman, who famously said that: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Therefore, when it comes to fighting inflation, command and control methods such as economic central planning, resource allocation to public needs, nationalization of strategic industries, price controls and rationing are out of the question and monetary methods are all that's left. To fight inflation using monetary methods, one has to raise the interest rate above the rate of inflation. If the interest rate is lower than inflation then the effective rate of interest is negative and speculators can make money by borrowing it, using it to buy up products and warehousing them until their price goes up enough to make a profit by selling them. Withholding products from the market drives up their prices even, adding fuel to the inflationary fire. At some point inflation crosses the notional boundary beyond which lies hyperinflation, currency devaluation and financial collapse—the opposite of what's intended. Is financial collapse also "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon:"? It's too bad that Milton Friedman is no longer available to be consulted.</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But what would happen if effective interest rates were made positive rather than negative? Global inflation is currently at 10% and rising, so let's assume that in due course a rate closer to 20% will be achieved. Then an interest rate of 20% will be needed to crush it. Paul Volcker, who became Fed Chair in August 1979 and set out to crush inflation, raised the federal funds rate to 22%. He could do it then; could the current Fed Chair do it now? Let's do some arithmetic, shall we? Total US debt (public and private) is now close to $100 trillion and rising. US GDP is only $20 trillion and dropping. If the inflation rate is close to 20%, then it will take at least a 20% interest rate to drive it down. But 20% of $100 trillion is $20 trillion and at that point the entire US GDP gets swallowed up by debt service—impossible! Even after zeroing out defense and social security, a goodly portion of that $20 trillion would have to be simply printed... driving up inflation. Checkmate! And so instead of a decisive move to crush inflation, what we should reasonably expect is a crazy muddle: hyperinflation, currency collapse, market dysfunction, supply chain breakdown, political dysfunction and perhaps a nice little civil war to top it all off.</p><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 10.5px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-45100976691560527122022-10-18T16:25:00.000+02:002022-10-18T16:25:32.170+02:00Dimitry Orlov: A nice bridge you got there...<p><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">I keep trying to write serious articles about serious issues, but current events keep injecting minutiae into my train of thought, which I then have to spend time on. If I didn't, many of my readers would think I am ignoring them, and that would be bad (in their esteemed opinion) because these current events are sooo important! Several large-diameter pipes get blown up at the bottom of the Baltic, which weren't being used in any case. A truck bomb exploded on the bridge that links Crimea with Krasnodar, shutting it down for almost a whole day. Oh, and before we forget, Krasny Liman, a railroad junction in Donetsk was temporarily surrendered to the relentlessly attacking Ukrainians (mostly Polish mercenaries, actually) who drenched it in their blood and festooned it with their billowing entrails in the process. These and other less significant events have caused some small but noisy part of Russian social media to explode in consternation, baying for revenge and generally acting dissatisfied with the progress made since the Special Operation was declared on February 22, 2022. Sure enough, plenty of these hysterical voices are actually paid Ukrainian agents tasked with spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt and, sure enough, the Special Operation will proceed regardless, so this is all just a temporary annoyance. But I will comment on it because I feel that I have to, and then move on to more important things.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The bridge across the Kerch Strait was under discussion for many decades. It was in the planning stages even while Crimea was still an autonomy within the constitutionally intact Ukraine, prior to the US-instigated violent coup of 2014. After Crimea rejoined Russia, it became extremely important to create a ground transportation link between it and the mainland, and the bridge was built in record time. It was a massive undertaking and is a high-prestige item for the Russian government. But there have also been some organizational issues.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">As it stands, yesterday a large tractor-trailer packed with explosives was detonated on the highway portion of the bridge just as a cargo train with cisterns of diesel was passing through. The resulting explosion demolished two reinforced concrete highway spans and sooted up the rail bed. All train traffic and half of the road traffic were restarted that very day. There is equipment to X-ray all cargo passing through, but it wasn't being used because of certain bureaucratic inadequacies; these, I am sure, will now be remedied.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The reason the bridge was extremely important was because there was no land connecting Crimea to the rest of Russia; but now that Kherson and Donetsk are again part of Russia, traffic from Simferopol to Rostov can be sent around the northern shore of Sea of Azov (which is now an entirely Russian body of water); the difference is between 690km and 730km. The bridge is by means superfluous because the distance to Krasnodar, another regional hub, is 1030km by land and just 460km via the bridge. But the new land route from Moscow to Simferopol is 350km shorter. But it's a very nice bridge, building it cost lots of money and a bit more due diligence is definitely needed to keep Ukrainian terrorists from trying to blow it up.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">We are waiting for the results of the investigation to determine how exactly this terrorist act was planned and executed but judging from the fact that the Kiev regime endlessly promised to carry it out and had prepared to celebrate it before it occurred, it is reasonable to expect that it was indeed behind it. In that case the Kiev regime has in effect officially declared itself to be a terrorist entity and any appeals to its territorial integrity and other rights under international law are now groundless. It is now yet another terrorist entity, like ISIS or Al Qaeda, to be destroyed as swiftly and efficiently as possible.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">There are, however, two problems. First, the terrorist entity that is the Kiev regime is holding several million people hostage. What's worse, the Ukraine's progression from just very corrupt to criminal to full-on genocidal terrorist has been gradual taking some 30 years, and quite a few of these millions are now suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, thinking that black and white and terrorists are the good guys. Some of these victims are beyond hope while others can be deprogrammed over time and revert to what they actually are, which is a provincial sort of Russian. Given a proper educational system, this can be achieved in at most two generations; but this is not something that can be fixed in a hurry using tactical or strategic weapons.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">The second problem is behind the Kiev terrorists stand Washington terrorists, along with their many and varied vassals in the European Union. The vassals are indeed varied, ranging from Hungary, which has stood its ground, realizing that it can't survive without Russian energy imports, to France and Germany, which are almost feckless but do try to do as little to help the Ukraine as they can get away with, to Poland, which is rabidly hell-bent on self-destruction and eager to supply all the cannon fodder the Russians can easily destroy. There is also Britain, which is eager to make mischief on the continent just to assure itself that it still exists.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">But behind them all stands Washington, which just blew up some pipelines. If the Crimean bridge incident was for Kiev what 9/11 was for Al Qaeda (obvious fakery notwithstanding), then the Nord Stream pipeline incident was the same for the Washingtonians. The problem is that the Washingtonians are nuclear-armed and can't be put out of their misery without triggering global destruction. Also, the number of hostages the Washingtonians are holding is orders of magnitude larger and the Stockholm Syndrome is much, much stronger. The difference, from the Russian perspective, is that the Washington regime is on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean and, once the US economy collapses, will be easy to ignore. Already your average Russian is revolted by news of Americans castrating their children, having gay sex and dosing on fentanyl; if it wasn't for Biden falling down and shaking hands with ghosts or Pelosi's empty-eyed blithering, there would be nothing to report. The pipeline incident is, of course, lamentable, but then Gazprom has earned a huge fortune by specifically not using that pipeline. But the Kiev regime is right there on the Russian border lobbing missiles at kindergartens, schools and hospitals, and now trying to blow up the damn bridge! This sort of behavior fills your average Russian patriotic Putin-lover with rage; yet what s there to do—beyond what the Special Operation is already doing?</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Why didn't the Russian army liberate Kharkov, for instance, instead of retreating from the region? Well, Kharkov is a city that has almost no industry but has several hundred hipsters who would have had to be fed, clothed and entertained—or they would go and work for the enemy. Most of these hipsters are Stockholm Syndrome sufferers par excellence, and deprogramming them would absorb scarce resources best used elsewhere. Same logic applies to Kiev—times five or ten. Why doesn't the Russian army blow up bridges, severing communications across Kiev-controlled territory? Well, then they would have to rebuild those bridges when the time comes, and that costs money. Why doesn't the Russian army demolish border crossings, cutting the Ukraine off from the EU? Well, it's not time for that yet; that time will come when life in the EU becomes worse than life in the Kiev-controlled portion of former Ukraine and people start trying to come back. Then it will be time to set up filtration camps, to separate the wolves from the lambs. Why doesn't the Russian army use rockets to destroy the Ukraine's electric grid and the rest of its energy system? Well, that would just create a humanitarian disaster, for which Russia would be to blame, making it no better than the terrorists and providing ammunition for enemy propaganda.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">What is there left to do? Oh, you know, just use a small fraction of Russia's army to liberate 110.000km2 of territory over a period of a little under nine months, maintaining a better than 10:1 kill ratio, organize referenda on liberated territories and accept them into the Russian Federation. Pretty shabby, I know, but then these 110.000km2 include prime farmland, lots of factories and mines and several million Russians who are very excited to be one with the Motherland once again.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Before I sign off for the day, I'd like to report what seems like a really positive development for the Russian side. Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network has allowed the Ukrainians at the front to receive up-to-date information and instructions, allowing them to target Russian forces and civilians alike. Ukrainian commanders at the frontline had a continuous internet connection to NATO commanders, who took care of tactical planning and targeting for them. But now the Ukrainians report that Starlink has been failing. At the same time, mysterious pillars of light have appeared over several Russian cities, which were, laughably, ascribed to light pollution from greenhouses. What stands to reason is that the Russians have invented a way to irradiate the ionosphere, saturating it with noise at just those frequencies used by Starlink satellites. Without an internet connection to NATO, the Ukrainians are now as blind as newborn kittens, and just as helpless. Instead of being forced to play "shoot and scoot" Russian artillery and rocketry will be able to pull right up, take out the Ukrainians with line-of-sight targeting, then pull up some more. This should speed up progress quite a lot.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Another development that should speed up progress is the arrival of winter. Foliage is disappearing, and with it the ability of the Ukrainians to hide behind trees and bushes. With the arrival of cold weather, targeting will become a matter of picking out hot spots on infrared images, killing anything that's still warm. Add to this the arrival of mud season: it will severely hamper the Ukrainians forces' ability to maneuver. Most of their Soviet-era armor, which was designed for fighting in mud, ice and in snow, has been destroyed already, while its NATO replacements, mostly designed for dry, sunny weather, are exhibiting a marked tendency to get stuck.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">In all, I just don't see too much for the Russians to worry about at this point. As for the Americans, I really don't see any face-saving way for them out of this. They should just do what they always do under such circumstances: declare victory and go home. To keep their minds off the Ukraine fiasco, maybe they could start a civil war. If they do, I'd be willing to go to Alaska, to help organize a referendum on it rejoining Russia. The US lease on it ran out back in 1966, you know.</p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-89639830145215574862022-10-07T09:31:00.004+02:002022-10-07T09:31:34.506+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Decoding "Putin's Nuclear Threat"<p>This phrase currently yields about 6,590,000 results on Google, so it must be real—or is it not? It is not. But apparently figures most authoritative have concocted a narrative where Putin, in desperation over the loss of Krasny Liman, a railroad junction in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk People's Republic, which as of yesterday is part of Russian Federation, will get all emotional and attack the Ukrainians using tactical nuclear weapons. Since this narrative is bogus, there must be something else going on, such as a false flag being planned by the US. Let's tease this narrative apart and see where it leads.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">If you have never heard of Krasny Liman, you are hereby forgiven for this bit of geographic ignorance. It is only notable for two things: a rail junction and the fact that the Russians recently decided to pull back from it while inflicting horrific losses on the attacking Ukrainians. As far as battlefield losses, the 10:1 ratio (10 dead Ukrainians for every dead Russian) seems to be holding steady. Given that Russia's population is 4 times larger and that Russia makes all of its own weapons while the Ukraine is forced to rely on the kindness of strangers, Russian victory on the battlefield is entirely assured. Krasny Liman and its majestic railway station will be retaken in due course, because it now happens to be on Russian territory, but there is no reason to rush. What's happening now in Novorossiya (what the region was called when it was first settled by Russians, displacing wandering nomadic remnants of Genghis Khan's empire) is an anti-terrorist operation, the Ukrainians and their Western supporters being the terrorists. The Russian troops are slowly grinding their way to victory, defined as liberating Novorossiya from the Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries, which are, since no war has ever been officially declared, illegal combatants—i.e., terrorists.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">In case you wish to challenge these definitions, let's add some perfectly boring legal facts. Novorossiya (currently including Donesk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye, and eventually to include, at a minimum, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk) recently voted in a referendum on whether to join the Russian Federation. The numbers were overwhelmingly in favor. A referendum is a legal instrument of direct democracy by which a people make their sovereign will known to the world, enshrined in Article 1 of the UN Charter as: "the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples." This is international law; there is also a lot of he-said-she-said: the regime in Kiev claims that these regions are separatists; the would-be separatists rejoin that the Kiev regime is itself illegal, having been installed by Americans in an unconstitutional, violent coup d'état in 2014. But as far as Moscow is concerned Novorossiya is part of Russia because its people have so chosen while the Ukrainians and various mercenaries on its territory are terrorists to be exterminated or expelled.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">You may wonder why such legalities are important here, given that shells are exploding and people are dying, and you may feel compelled to run around with your hair on fire in a futile attempt to make them stop. Well, good luck with that, but to the Russians questions of legality in international relations are of paramount importance. Some 85% of the world's population that is not part of the collective West sees Russia as a valuable deterrent against predatory, neo-colonialist Western practices (with its "rules-based international order" where nobody has ever seen, never mind ratified, this imaginary compendium of rules). Russia is eager to position itself as a trustworthy partner acting within a mutually acceptable legal framework. The success of international organizations such as SCO and BRICS, which many nations wish to join, testifies to the effectiveness of this approach. In contrast, the US is seen as an increasingly rudderless, internally conflicted renegade nation and the EU as a gaggle of its feckless minions.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">These preliminaries out of the way, let us now consider the nature of "Putin's nuclear threat." The brilliant idea for concocting this false narrative came from Putin himself who, during his speech on the occasion of accepting Novorossiya into the Russian Federation, said this:</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">"Тем, кто позволяет себе такие заявления в отношении России, хочу напомнить, что наша страна также располагает различными средствами поражения, а по отдельным компонентам—и более современными, чем у стран НАТО. И при угрозе территориальной целостности нашей страны, для защиты России и нашего народа мы, безусловно, используем все имеющиеся в нашем распоряжении средства."</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">Translation: "I wish to remind those who allow themselves to make such statements in relation to Russia that our country also possesses various offensive weapons, certain components of which are more modern than those of NATO countries. And in case of threats to the territorial integrity of our country, for the defense of Russia and of our people, we will most definitely make use of all means in our possession."</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">Putin did not explicitly mention nuclear weapons, although he did warn against nuclear blackmail and said, ominously, that "the wind rose can point in any direction," implying that nuclear fallout can spread anywhere the wind blows. And this was enough to send Western mass media into high dudgeon, causing it to hyperventilate continuously while spewing out an endless stream of verbiage on "Putin's nuclear threat." But it's not a threat—it's a promise, and for details one should look to Russia's Nuclear Doctrine which spells out the exact conditions under which Russia's nuclear deterrent will be employed: no first use, and to be used only in response to an existential threat. The temporary tactical retreat from Krasny Liman with its lovely railroad station is not an existential threat by any stretch of the imagination; that, plus the "no first use" stipulation in Russia's nuclear doctrine, guarantee that Russia will not use a nuclear weapon in response.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">If that's the case, then what are we to read into "Putin's nuclear threat" beyond an excuse to hyperventilate and rant about Russia-Russia-Russia, to distract from the now $31 trillion US federal debt and other looming disasters? The US has exhibited a pronounced penchant for false flags (9/11, where 3 skyscrapers—WTC 1, 2 and 7—were, if you are gullible, knocked down using 2 Boeings) and an equally pronounced penchant for using nuclear explosives for political ends (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and then Fukushima, where a nuclear depth charge was used to trigger a tsunami that all but shut down Japan's nuclear power industry). Perhaps the plan is to combine the two ingredients by nuking Kiev and then attempting to pin the blame on Russia. Given that the US just blew up Nord Stream pipelines with barely a reprimand, why wouldn't it just keep its terrorist strikes coming?</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">Nuking Kiev would solve several problems for the US. First, it would obviate the need to continue supporting Kiev militarily or financially. There is currently no face-saving way for it to do so. Given Kiev's inevitable defeat, the situation is growing ever more fraught. Second, it would deal a coup de grace to the failed experiment in European unity that is the European Union: not only will it succumb of economic collapse caused by its refusal of Russian gas, idiotic anti-Russian sanctions and harebrained renewable energy schemes, but it will also have to contend with nuclear fallout! After that it will be in no position to act as an economic competitor to the US, freeing up a large share of scarce and dwindling energy resources. Also, blaming Russia, as is traditional, will make it possible for the US to wash its hands of the horrific failure of its Ukraine policy of the past three decades. Finally, the US could present Kiev's rotting corpse to Russia as a sort of poisoned gift, hoping that a radioactive Kiev will do to Russia what a radioactive Chernobyl did to the USSR.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn">American enthusiasm for this endeavor should, however, be tempered by the following realization: the development of Russia's nuclear drone, Poseidon, has now reached deployment stage. It has almost infinite range, can travel at 100km/h at depths of which no other submarine is capable, and carries a nuclear charge large enough to trigger a tsunami that would wipe the entire eastern seaboard of the US, from Cape Cod to Cape Hatteras, clear off the map. The Russians even already have a name for the new body of water this tsunami would carve out: Stalin Strait. Oh, and the original concept for it belongs to none other than that consummate man of peace, Andrei Sakharov. If Poseidon isn't enough to make US nuclear false flag fanciers think again, there is also Sarmat, which is getting ready to enter service. But I'll save that story for another day.</div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-41390645805836209502022-09-18T14:01:00.004+02:002022-09-18T14:01:24.569+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Of Cats in a Dark and Cluttered Room<h1 class="Post_title_G2QHp" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 28px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></h1><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">I've been getting requests to comment on the recent Ukrainian counterattacks, with some people musing that perhaps "the tide has turned." There have been two counterattacks, one in the Kherson region in the south, which was repelled, with the Ukrainian forces suffering casualties in the thousands, filling every hospital and morgue in the region and requiring emergency blood drives. That little caper cost the Ukrainian side around 100 tanks and other vehicles, 4000 dead and 8000 wounded. Rest assured, some people are quite happy with this turn of events—especially those who profit by cutting livers, lungs and kidneys out of the corpses and shipping them off to clinics in Israel and points beyond for transplantation (given the large number of casualties, this has turned into quite an industry at this point, along with money laundering and weapons smuggling). In another attack, supposedly much more successful, the Ukrainian side recaptured areas around Izyum and Balakleya, with equally impressive losses.<span><a name='more'></a></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">Since this is the only instance of Ukrainians actually gaining ground since the start of the operation, some people instantly started to hyperventilate and claim that now the Russians will surely be routed from Crimea. I will do no such thing and instead explain why Russia, having committed perhaps as much as 16% of its professional soldiers (no draftees or reservists but increasing numbers of volunteers), is actually succeeding in its mission to demilitarize and denazify the Ukraine, provide for the security of the Donbass region and, beyond that, to shift its relationship with the West (if any) to a more equitable basis. Everything is going according to plan, and although we don't know the details of that plan ahead of time (it is normally a state secret) we can discern some of its details as it unfolds.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">First, it is important that while for the West the action in the Ukraine is an existential "total war" (as stated by the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian), for Russia it is a Special Military Operation, and Russia is ready to simultaneously engage in three, perhaps four of them without having to mobilize or to call up reserves. The reason it is an existential question for the West has to do with energy. With Peak Oil well in the past and the fracking phenomenon in the US ready to fizzle out over the next year or two, Russia's oil and gas, and many commodities that require cheap oil and gas for their production, are absolutely essential if the West is to maintain even a trace of its dominant position in the world. What's more, Russian oil and gas have to be made very cheap, whereas they are now far too expensive for the West to sustain its industrial capacity, with chemical and metallurgical plants, and even bakeries, closing daily. Thus, if the West is to survive, Russia must be destroyed and its treasure trove of fossil fuels and other commodities looted.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">For Russia, the conflict serves an entirely different set of functions. First, politically, it is beneficial for Russia to expand its territory and to regain some of the most interesting Russian territories it lost to the whimsical, artificial country called the Ukraine which was formed when the USSR fell apart. Second, given the level of anti-Russian hostility inculcated in the Ukrainian population, it is incumbent upon the Russian military to render what remains of the Ukraine maximally innocuous, destroying its warmaking capacity and ruining it economically by destroying its infrastructure—turning the Ukraine into the Uk-Ruin.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">The most advantageous time to do this is before inclement weather sets in, and with it what in Russian is called "raspútitsa", or roadlessness—a time when dirt roads turn to impassable mud. That, plus a few rocket strikes against roads, railroads, bridges, electric transformer farms, pumping stations, refineries, fuel depots, etc., will be enough to make sure that nothing much moves or operates as winter weather descends. This part of the plan now seems to be in operation and at present many parts of the Ukraine don't have electricity as a result of recent rocket strikes.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">Capturing a maximum amount of territory as quickly as possible is not advantageous at all because this territory would then have to be controlled, defended and rebuilt to Russian standards, as is now happening in Donetsk, Lugansk, Mariupol and Kherson. Capturing and occupying large cities such as Kharkov, Kiev or Odessa would have meant having to supply them; why not let the West do it instead, and exhaust itself in trying? Another reason for advancing slowly was to allow the Ukrainian population to sort itself out. Do they want to be one with Russia (as in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kherson) or do they wish to remain as Western parasites for as long as possible, feeding their native sons, along with some clueless mercenaries, into the meat-grinder that is the eastern front?</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">A similar reason for moving ahead slowly has to do with the pro-Western tendencies of a small but influential part of the Russian population that is concentrated in a few big cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and a few others). These people have been conditioned, over the past 30 years, to look up to and ape the West and are naturally compelled to ingratiate themselves with it even to the point of committing treason against their own country. Some of them, hilariously labeled "frightened patriots" by the cryptically ironic Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, fled to the West or to Israel as soon as Russia had announced its Special Operation. A lot of them have since come back, along with many Russians who had been living in the West. It takes time for all of the above to realize that there is nothing good out there for them any more in the increasingly wild West and that Russia is the best place for them.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">And then they have to actually move back, which is rarely an easy process. People have to find jobs, places to live, sometimes get their papers in order, ship their belongings and so on. Right now schools in St. Petersburg and Moscow are seeing an influx of children who have been hounded out of schools in the UK, the US or Canada. They are often disoriented, poorly socialized, and typically behind in every subject except English. The process of moving back is getting more complicated: there are no longer direct flights, containers with possessions have to be shipped via third countries and funds often cannot be wired directly due to sanctions. Russians are famously foolhardy, often getting stuck in various risky places and giving the Foreign Ministry headaches when the time comes to try to rescue them. I am probably at the opposite extreme, having moved my family back five years before it became absolutely necessary.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">In all, it is to Russia's advantage to sustain maximally hostile relations with the collective West (while continuing to nurture lower-level contacts with individual friendlier EU countries such as Italy or Hungary) but to not rush things too much in order to extract maximum profits from endlessly rising natural gas and commodity prices and to negotiate maximally advantageous trade deals with friendly countries. After this winter, most Europeans will be made to understand that there is no replacement for Russian energy and other resources, whether or not their leaders, many of whom lack basic economic literacy and are outright American plants, are specifically paid not to understand this simple fact. It would be to Russia's advantage to have these clowns voted out, but another simple fact is that Russia's future lies with the East, not with the West, and no amount of sincere apologies will compensate for the West's now obvious degradation and decay or its vast legacy of abetting and coddling Nazis, most recently Ukrainian ones.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">In this light, even the recent setback in the Kharkov region, which resulted in the surrender of Izyum and Balakleya, has certain advantages. It helped to further clarify the situation politically: those people who waxed hysterical, claiming that "all is lost" or that "this is the beginning of the end for Russia" just because a few dozen square kilometers changed hands at a cost of thousands of Ukrainian lives have essentially outed themselves as, at the very least, untrustworthy and unreliable, in essence presenting themselves with their own special Darwin award within Russia's political ecosystem. A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that if the Ukraine were to reconquer all of its territory with similar battlefield losses, its population would be zeroed out well before it reached that goal.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">Russia's Special Military operation in the Ukraine, now in its sixth months, has succeeded in "liberating" (if you accept the Russian term) roughly the third of the Ukraine's population and territory that is most valuable, all the while maintaining a three-to-one disadvantage in troop numbers against the Ukrainian side and in spite of the Ukrainian's eight-year lead in establishing fortified defensive positions. This is an achievement without precedent in the annals of military science. Throughout this period, the Russian strategy has been designed to minimize casualties among the Russian military and the civilian population. Meanwhile, losses on the Ukrainian side have been very high, with much of the original contingent either no longer alive or no longer fit for action. The exact numbers will be kept secret until the operation's conclusion, but informal estimates of the kill ratio are in the neighborhood of ten to one. The latest innovation of surrendering not particularly valuable bits of territory to an all-out Ukrainian onslaught, then perhaps gaining it back as per usual, improves this kill ratio to perhaps a hundred to one.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">To explain, let me use an analogy. Suppose your job is to rid of feral cats a large, dimly lit and cluttered room. You need to grab each cat by the scruff of the neck and stuff it in a bag. There are three possible tactics the cats might deploy. The first is for them to try to hide from you, forcing you to move heavy furniture away from walls and to clear passageways so that you might find them and flush them out of their hiding places. This is equivalent to blasting the Ukrainians out of their fortified positions. The second is for them to try to run away from you, forcing you to chase after them, perhaps tripping over furniture and hurting yourself in the process. This is the equivalent of advancing while subjecting retreating Ukrainians to artillery barrages. And the third is rile up the cats and to get them to try to attack you. If you are properly dressed for it and agile (good armor and a highly mobile defensive strategy) you should be able to grab the smaller cats and stuff them in the bag, fight off the larger ones, and leave the room quickly with a bag full of cats having sustained a few bites and scratches.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">Thus, the strategy of gaining, then surrendering, then regaining noncritical bits of territory is superior to both picking apart entrenched positions using artillery and to advancing steadily as the Ukrainians retreat. Some people bemoan the fate of civilians who are caught in the crossfire. These civilians have been given the opportunity to evacuate to Russia, where camps have been set up to receive them, stocked with food, medicine and everything else necessary, there to wait out the hostilities. Those that chose to remain are the ones who are unwilling to decide whether they want to be with Russia or with the Ukraine; if so, why should the Russians be particularly concerned with risking their own lives to defend theirs?</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">A historical note on the patch of ground recently surrendered by the Russians: Balakleya, from the Turkic "fish river," was first mentioned in a chronicle in 1571, as a defensive outpost of the Moscow state. It was initially a Crimean Tatar settlement that was replaced by a Cossack outpost in 1663. It fits the definition of noncritical territory. It is vastly less important than driving the Ukrainians away from Donetsk, so that they can no longer continuously shell its schools, hospitals and markets using US-supplied weapons.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;">But these are all minor details. The sweeping panorama is of a great winter of Western discontent, with lack of heat, shortages of electricity, expensive and increasingly scarce food and a great show of financial, economic and political dysfunction. Once the snow melts, we will be in a brave new world in which, we should hope, the collective West will suddenly become much more reasonable and more willing to seek peaceful accommodation with those on whose kindness its survival depends. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zW_q_YwfUk" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f15f2c; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; transition: border-color 0.2s ease 0s;" target="_blank">Here is Gazprom's lyrical take on it</a>.</div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-6651022732415946162022-09-02T11:15:00.005+02:002022-09-02T11:20:44.912+02:00Interessantes Dokument: Die USA planen die Zerstörung der deutschen Wirtschaft mit Hilfe der Grünen <p>Documento elaborado por la RAND Corporation en enero de 2022. Demuestra que los EEUU planean la destrucción de la economía alemana -y con ella de toda la economía de la UE- con ayuda de los Verdes que funcionan como tontos útiles</p><p><a href="https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2022/mit-hilfe-der-gruenen-die-usa-planen-die-zerstoerung-der-deutschen-wirtschaft/">https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2022/mit-hilfe-der-gruenen-die-usa-planen-die-zerstoerung-der-deutschen-wirtschaft/</a></p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-87427432823689996842022-08-23T10:27:00.004+02:002022-08-23T10:27:38.052+02:00Armando Fernández Steinko y Eduardo Luque: Crisis en Ucrania y fantasmas en la izquierda<h5 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: museo300; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0.2rem 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: robotoregular;">La crisis ucraniana vuelve a confrontar a la izquierda con sus propios fantasmas. Ya sucedió durante la crisis yugoslava, la libia, la siria y también con la olvidada guerra del Yemen. Una vez más, las fuerzas progresistas pueden abordar los problemas geopolíticos desde dos prismas diferentes. El primero es subordinando la realidad a una serie de postulados morales tales como el legítimo derecho a vivir en paz, a la vida o el respeto a la integridad territorial. El segundo enfoque intenta partir de la realidad y de los hechos históricos para hacer avanzar la realización de dichos postulados sobre bases empíricamente fundadas o “reales”. El primero se conforma con valorar y contemplar la realidad, el segundo la valora, como no puede ser de otra forma, para</span><span style="font-family: robotoregular;"> </span><strong style="box-sizing: inherit; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: inherit;">además</strong><span style="font-family: robotoregular;"> </span><span style="font-family: robotoregular;">intentar construir un mundo mejor.<span><a name='more'></a></span></span></span></h5><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">La mayor parte de las izquierdas hispanas han apostado por el primer prisma en su posicionamiento frente a la intervención militar de Rusia en Ucrania. Hay precedentes. Después de una denuncia firme y fundada de la guerra en Iraq, adoptó posiciones más ambiguas frente a las masacres cometidas en Libia o en Siria repitiendo los argumentos humanitarios defendidos por las potencias occidentales. En la crisis de Ucrania, la alineación acrítica de muchos con los argumentos de la OTAN está siendo casi total. La construcción de una “determinada cantidad de enemigo apropiado” (Nils Christie) que conocemos de la criminología, ha dado sus frutos en la figura de Vladimir Putin y en la actualización de la historia del “oso ruso”, un viejo relato geopolítico fraguado por el Reino Unido en los años de su imperialismo más exacerbado, y que ha seguido fundamentando su política exterior hacia Rusia desde finales del siglo XIX.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Pero por poco que exploremos los antecedentes de la situación, por poco que seamos capaces de situarnos en el lugar del otro, veremos que el principal pecado de Vladimir Putin radica en haber sacado a su país de la condición de estado fallido a la que lo había arrojado Boris Yeltsin, que sus posiciones son esencialmente defensivas y preventivas aún cuando, al tratarse de un país muy grande, su política afecte a muchos territorios aunque todos próximos a sus fronteras. Una somera consulta de las hemerotecas desvela la machacona insistencia de Putin a lo largo de los últimos veinte años en la necesidad de que todos los países influyentes respeten la legalidad internacional. En que sólo si se construye un orden internacional multipolar que no contemple el monopolio de un país -y de sus afines- en la definición de los criterios políticos, militares y económicos vigentes puede crearse una comunidad internacional de paz. En que solo si se respeta el derecho de todos los países a vivir con seguridad, puede evitarse la vandalización del mundo. Putin insistió -por ejemplo en la sonada conferencia de Munich de seguridad de 2007- en la importancia de que estos argumentos no acabaran ahogados en protocolos formales, buenas palabras y golpecitos en la espalda, sino que fueran tomados en serio pues de ellos dependía la posibilidad de crear un orden internacional civilizado. Estaba haciendo una propuesta concreta, realista y constructiva que permitía apoyar la moral y las buenas ideas en una hoja de ruta susceptible de ser construida de forma multilateral antes que en simple retórica y declaraciones bienintencionadas destinadas a tranquilizar a la opinión pública. Las burlas de las élites occidentales, sobre todo de los norteamericanos tipo “parece un niño arrogante que quiere recuperar su viejo juguete”- a estas propuestas, también se pueden rastrear fácilmente en las hemerotecas: fueron actos de imperdonable irresponsabilidad colectiva por parte de no pocos países occidentales.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Lo que proponía Putin -y no sólo él sino también la dirección china y el conjunto de los países del BRICS- es una invitación a <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">toda</strong> la comunidad internacional a que ninguna potencia -ni los EEUU, ni cualquier otra incluida la propia Rusia- le pueda imponer su criterio moral, militar, económico y político al resto, en definitiva un orden internacional multilateral. Esto incluye el derecho de <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">todos</strong> los países a vivir sin amenaza nuclear. Las demandas de Rusia son incluso más legítimas, si cabe, que las del resto de los países, pues ha sido invadida varias veces desde el oeste y la última vez perdió más de 25 millones de sus habitantes. La amenaza no es cuestión del pasado pues los constructores de los nuevos “enemigos apropiados” siguen trabajando en la reactivación de los viejos enemigos y las escuadras nazis, que tienen en Rusia a su principal enemigo histórico, dirigen hoy una parte importante de los batallones del ejército ucraniano que viene siendo armado desde hace algún tiempo por los países occidentales a espaldas de sus propias opiniones públicas.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Los países de la OTAN se reservan para sí el derecho a vivir sin amenazas nucleares. Critican muy severamente a Rusia por inmiscuirse en los asuntos internos de terceros países. Provocan cambios de fronteras sin respetar la legalidad internacional reconociendo la separación de Kosovo del territorio de Serbia en 2008. Bombardean países sin el respaldo de Naciones Unidas como sucedió con Serbia, Libia o Iraq, en realidad casi un año sí y otro también desde 1999. Legalizan los grupos nazis en sus territorios y critican las políticas de uniformización etnolingüística cuando se producen en un territorio de la OTAN como España. Sin embargo no le reconocen esos mismos derechos a Rusia: consideran inadmisible la modificación de fronteras de Rusia en Crimea tras el golpe de estado de Maidán, financian las escuadras neonazis para usarlas contra Moscú etc. Muchos progresistas occidentales prefieren no tomar nota de todo esto: de que la OTAN lleva más de 27 años acercando sus fronteras hacia Moscú, de las interminables quejas, ruegos, declaraciones diplomáticas y peticiones de comprensión con las que la diplomacia rusa ha venido respondiendo a esta estrategia aparentemente inocente en las formas pero profundamente agresiva en sus intenciones ¿se puede fijar un posicionamiento moral sin tener en cuenta estos hechos?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Porque los hechos son que la intransigencia y la agresividad occidental en su intento de desvincular a Ucrania primero cultural, luego afectiva, económica y políticamente de Rusia, no se pueden cuestionar. Ucrania es un país dividido lingüísticamente y durante la segunda guerra mundial se produjo un enfrentamiento civil entre ambas comunidades. La parte occidental -originalmente vinculada al imperio austrohúngaro, agrícola, de escasa tradición nacional y ucranoparlante- apoyó mayoritariamente a los invasores alemanes. La segunda -industrial, muy ligada a Rusia desde hace siglos- apoyaba y combatió al lado de su vecino ruso del norte. El conflicto lingüístico quedó razonablemente resuelto durante décadas con la derrota de Alemania en la segunda guerra mundial, pero el golpe de estado de Maidán de 2014 lo reactivó pues servía para alejar a Ucrania de Rusia con el fin último de incorporarla a la OTAN. Dicho golpe no se apoyó sólo en el sector prooccidental de los profesionales urbanos del país, como sugerían los medios occidentales. También y sobre todo se apoyó en las escuadras neonazis que aportaron manifestantes y agitación armada en Kiev. En estos últimos recayó también la persecución de los militantes de izquierda hasta llegar a su exterminio en algunos lugares como sucedió en la casa de los sindicatos de Odessa. En ellos recae también la actual guerra contra las provincias de Donetsk y Luhansk que, igual que Crimea, se quieren separar de Ucrania debido a la elevada concentración de rusoparlantes una vez rotos los consensos en 2014. En ellos se apoya además la actual estructura del ejército ucraniano, pues actúan a modo de comisarios políticos para evitar deserciones. La guerra en Donetsk y Luhansk es una guerra en suelo europeo y viene durando muchos años, una guerra que no ha preocupado demasiado a parte de la izquierda a pesar de que ya costado más de 13.000 vidas fundamentalmente de civiles.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">¿Pero por qué tanto lío con Ucrania y en cambio no lo hubo con los países bálticos? El geoestratega norteamericano más influyente y artífice de la ampliación de la OTAN hacia el este, Zbigniew Brzezinski, responde a esta pregunta<a href="https://www.elviejotopo.com/topoexpress/crisis-en-ucrania-y-fantasmas-en-la-izquierda/#_edn1" name="_ednref1" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4); background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cf4547; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">[i]</span></a> : <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">“una Rusia que pueda conservar el control sobre Ucrania podría seguir intentando convertirse en un imperio eurasiático, sin Ucrania este objetivo es irrealizable”. </em></strong>Esta interpretación imperialista de la política exterior rusa, que enlaza con la teoría del oso ruso insaciable, es la que siempre han cultivado la diplomacia británica y norteamericana, sin duda las más imperialistas del mundo desde 1800. Sólo recientemente ha sido sustituida por la del nuevo “enemigo apropiado” chino, aunque las similitudes entre ambas son muy grandes. Brzezinski continuaba en 1997: <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">“en algún momento entre 2005 y 2010 Ucrania se habría acercado lo suficientemente al oeste como para iniciar las conversaciones de incorporación a la OTAN”</em></strong> (traducción propia de la versión alemana).</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Ambas afirmaciones del geoestratega norteamericano encierran las claves del conflicto: las necesidades más esenciales de seguridad de Rusia dependen de la neutralidad de Ucrania. Por dos razones. 1.) porque el estacionamiento de ojivas nucleares en su territorio amenazarían directamente a Moscú. Es comparable al establecimiento de armas nucleares en Canadá apuntando a Washington; y 2.) Porque la franja territorial ucraniana es lo que le ha dado a Rusia históricamente la «profundidad estratégica” -así se expresa en lenguaje militar- que le ha permitido defenderse de los invasores y que sigue siendo plenamente vigente hoy para la seguridad de Rusia. Esto significa en plata que la incorporación de Ucrania a la OTAN es incompatible con los derechos de seguridad más elementales de Rusia. Y otra cosa más: el guión y los antecedentes de la intervención en Ucrania hay que buscarlos en Washington antes que en Moscú.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">¿Pero no tiene el gobierno ucraniano el derecho de decidir si ingresa o no en un bloque militar? ¿No puede decidir cada país la alianza de la que quiere formar parte y cómo hacerlo?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">El propio liberalismo político ha demostrado que la libertad individual termina ahí donde esta provoca una mengua de la libertad de la otra parte. Traducido al derecho internacional en los tratados internacionales este principio significa que los países no tienen el derecho de incrementar su propia seguridad <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">a costa</strong> de sus vecinos. Así, por ejemplo, la Carta de París, firmada por todos los países occidentales, por la URSS y Yugoslavia en 1990, reza: <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><em style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">“La seguridad es indivisible y la seguridad de cada Estado participante está inseparablemente vinculada a la de todos los demás”</em></strong> (ver <a href="https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/9/d/39521.pdf" rel="noopener" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4); background-color: transparent; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cf4547; line-height: inherit; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/9/d/39521.pdf</a>). Es el principio más importante para asegurar la paz y evitar las guerras tras las enseñanzas de la segunda guerra mundial: la atribución al otro de los mismos derechos de seguridad que reivindica legítimamente cada país para sí.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">¿Cuál es la respuesta de muchos progresistas frente a los acontecimientos en Ucrania? La respuesta ha sido posicionarse <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">tanto</strong> frente a unos <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">como </strong>frente a otros. Parece que se trata de una posición intachable, pues se apoya en la reivindicación de que los <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">mismos</strong> principios sean aplicados efectivamente a <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">todos por igual,</strong> una respuesta plenamente compatible con el espíritu de la Carta de París y también con los argumentos que viene defendiendo la diplomacia rusa una y otra vez desde hace casi veinte años: desde Sochi, hasta el Club Waldai pasando por las sucesivas conferencias de seguridad de Munich en las que ha venido participando desde 2007.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">¿Pero qué pasa si una de las partes no respeta este principio, si se burla -literalmente- de la otra parte, si considera los argumentos de Rusia como la pataleta de un niño que no se hace a la idea de que no tiene ya nada que decir en la esfera internacional? ¿Qué se supone que tiene que hacer la parte amenazada por los persistentes incumplimientos de la otra parte? ¿Hasta cuándo tiene que permanecer sin hacer nada la parte amenazada existencialmente mientras dicho incumplimiento va horadando sus necesidades de seguridad más esenciales? ¿Hasta cuándo tuvieron que esperar las potencias occidentales mientas Hitler intervenía en la guerra de España y se anexionaba Austria y los Sudetes?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Es aquí donde aparece la parte incómoda del asunto, la parte que muchos progresistas prefieren no arrostrar desde la harmonía de los argumentos morales libres de realidades fácticas y de otras suciedades incómodas. Ignorar, hacer <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">como</strong> que no han sucedido una serie de cosas, banalizar la secuencia histórica de los acontecimientos para reencontrarse con los argumentos de buenos y malos, soñar que la moral tiene fuerza suficiente para combatir la guerra “de unos y de otros” es, sin duda, la posición más cómoda e impecable. Pero si los argumentos, quejas, peticiones, advertencias, charlas y conferencias no llevan a ninguna parte, si la respuesta de la parte amenazada es un “hasta aquí hemos llegado” entonces los neutrales se llevan las manos a la cabeza: “¡estamos en favor del derecho internacional y la culpa de su ruptura es de Rusia!”. Su posicionamiento pierde su inocencia, no querían intervenir pero ahora lo hacen. Lo hacen asumiendo de facto el relato del verdadero agresor.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">De nada sirve esquivar el asunto principal que es el que estamos intentando esbozar aquí<strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">. </strong>Pretender, por ejemplo, que el conflicto se fundamenta en el intento de hacerse con las materias primas que duermen en suelo ucraniano, o que todo lo hace girar el diabólico Vladimir Putin es una escapatoria moral para no mancharse las manos. Cuando EEUU intervino en Irak, el argumento “petróleo” fue efectivamente muy importante. Sin embargo tampoco fue el único en ese momento como argumentaron algunos progresistas repitiendo argumentos propios de un materialismo vulgar que más bien los desprestigia. La política interna y externa en general tiene una autonomía propia, una autonomía que obliga a inyectarle complejidad al análisis, que limita el poder explicativo de las razones “económicas” basadas en el valor futuro de las materias primas o también las razones “psicológicas” basados en el carácter corrosivo del “Señor Putin”. Si se quiere comprender la situación creada en Ucrania hay que leer a Brzezinksi, repasar las hemerotecas y los propios argumentos de la diplomacia rusa hechos públicos hasta la saciedad a lo largo de los últimos 20 años: no hay misterio alguno, está todo a la vista para el que quiera entender.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Es necesario protestar contra la guerra, pero es al menos tan importante protestar contra las políticas que la causan pues, si no desaparecen, volverán a producirse guerras. Esto pasa hoy por identificar el carácter ofensivo de la OTAN y oponerse a ella tal y como lo hicimos en los años 1980, cuando dio el primer paso para romper la paridad militar y hundir económicamente a la URSS: es ella la que provocó entonces y la que ha provocado ahora esta situación y no hay nada que nos permita afirmar que no va a provocar otras similares en el futuro si no la paramos. Las agresivas incursiones norteamericanas en los mares del Pacífico con el fin de “contener” a China explican la sorpresiva incondicionalidad con la que su gobierno ha apoyado la respuesta de Rusia en Crimea, y el rosario de bases militares norteamericanas que rodean el territorio de Rusia, no pueden ser más elocuentes para quien quiera comprender. ¿Cuántas bases rusas rodean los EEUU? Ninguna. La diferencia entre querer la paz y hacer lo posible para que se haga realidad pasa por determinar las causas de la guerra, por definir con realismo a los actores que destruyen la paz y las motivaciones que tienen para hacerlo. Son <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">esos</strong> actores y <strong style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;">esas</strong> motivaciones el principal enemigo del pacifismo.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Lo que está sucediendo en Ucrania demuestra en todo caso que no estamos al final de la historia, como pensaban Brzezinksi, Fukuyama & Co, sino más bien al comienzo de un nuevo tramo de la misma. El que este tramo sea unilateral o multilateral es una cuestión existencial para la humanidad, y perdonen si nos ponemos patéticos. Primero porque no habrá justicia y paz sostenibles si una potencia mundial piensa que se puede imponer su universo a todas las demás. Segundo porque sólo podremos salvar el planeta a partir de un consenso mundial que impida que los que más ensucien externalicen el coste de su forma de vida hacia los que no tienen poder para hacer valer su criterio. Y tercero porque la justicia norte-sur es incompatible con la capacidad de un país de imponerle al resto su criterio, su moneda, su economía, sus formas de vida etc. El multilateralismo y su defensa es el mortero que le permitirá a la humanidad hacer frente a las crisis que la atenazan al mismo tiempo: la ambiental, la social, la financiera etc.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: robotoregular; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.25rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">El siglo XXI con sus guerras híbridas y sus invasiones humanitarias nos muestra la complejidad que están adquiriendo algunos términos como “violencia”, “humanitarismo”, “guerra” o “paz”, término este último que algunos gobiernos usan como eslogan mientras se preparan activamente para imponerle al contrario su criterio utilizando la violencia si este no lo acepta. El pacifismo no se impondrá si no aprende a identificar los significados que pueden llegar a adquirir todas estas palabras, a explorar las causas de los conflictos sin recurrir a relatos de buenos y malos, a esos “enemigos apropiados” que tanto facilitan las cosas en el plano moral. No es necesario compartir las políticas de unos gobiernos o de unos dirigentes hacia dentro de sus propios países para poder apoyarlos cuando abrazan causas que dan un respiro a los que siempre han sido sometidos, ignorados y pisoteados, cuando abrazan las causa del multilateralismo. Tampoco era necesario identificarse con el socialismo soviético para reconocer el beneficio que le aportaba a los menos favorecidos dentro y fuera de los países occidentales para saludar la existencia de un equilibrio de poderes en el mundo. El mundo será distinto después de Ucrania 2022, pero sólo será mejor que el de hoy si se acaba imponiendo el multilateralismo.</span></p><h5 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #222222; font-family: museo300; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.4; margin: 0.2rem 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Barcelona-Madrid marzo 2022</span></h5>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-22401821180591933112022-08-23T10:04:00.004+02:002022-08-23T10:06:28.061+02:00Dimitry Orolov: Ukrainian terrorists assassinate daughter of Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin<div class="Post_contentWrapper_xwxk9" id="postContentWrapper" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 9px; padding: 0px;"><div class="Post_content_ETkyT" id="postContent" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 20px; max-height: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; overflow: hidden; position: relative; word-break: break-word;"><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">On Saturday, August 20, 2022, in Odintsov neighborhood of Bolshaya Vyaz'ma, near Moscow, a car bomb planted under the driver's seat took away the life of journalist Darya Dugina, 29, daughter of Russian philosopher and politologist Alexander Dugin. The bomb was planted by Ukrainian citizen Natalya Vovk, born in 1979, who had arrived in Russia on July 23 together with her daugher Sofia Shaban. They had rented an apartment in the building where Dugina lived and followed her around in a Mini Cooper under three different license plates: from Donetsk, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine. The day of the terrorist attack Vovk and her daughter were present at the festival "Tradition" attended by Alexander Dugin and his daughter. After triggering the explosive device, the two fled via Pskov to Estonia. Alexander Dugin was following Darya in another car and witnessed the explosion. He is now in a hospital, being treated for psychological trauma. He and his daughter were very close and worked closely together on various projects.</span><a name='more'></a></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Although Western media hacks rushed to call Dugin "Putin's advisor" or "Russian nationalist" or any number of other nonsense epithets, that's just the usual Western media nonsense. Dugin is a philosopher and, being rather controversial, is not in any sense close to the Kremlin. He has produced a very impressive body of work and it may be a bad idea to summarize it in just a few sentences, but I'll try.</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The specifics of the Russian state have to do with the vast Eurasian landscape and are independent of ethnology, religion, economics or ideology and require for its preservation a single strong leader whose power rests on the approval of a vast, conservative, locally self-governing, patriotic majority. When Russia had such leadership, especially under Prince Vladimir [~915-1015], Ivan IV the Terrible [1530-1584], Peter I the Great [1672-1725], Joseph Stalin and now under Vladimir Putin, its realm expanded rapidly. Even under not so great leaders, it grew steadily because its model of governance, with an authoritative center safeguarding the interests of far-flung communities large and small regardless of ethnicity, language or religion, gradually gained adherents among neighboring populations based on the principle of self-evident ethnic complementarity. The two counterexamples of massive incompetence are Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin, who brought Russia to the brink of economic collapse and political dissolution. Following the passing of America's unipolar moment a decade or so ago, Russia has been steadily expanding its reach and stands an excellent chance of joining other great nations of Eurasia in forming a Eurasian center of power that will cast off the burden of external control and exploitation by Western nations. Dugin sees Moscow as the Third Rome and the inheritor of both the Eastern Roman Empire and the Mongol Empire. He is a Russian patriot but calling him a nationalist is pure nonsense since Russia is not a nation but a federation of many nations.</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">As seems usual with the Ukrainians, the heinous act of assassinating Dugin's daughter was for them a potently self-destructive act. Before this event, Dugin labored in relative obscurity and his ideas were widely known in rather narrow circles and considered controversial. But now his name is everywhere and tens of millions of people are looking him up and studying his work. His daughter's martyrdom has elevated her, and him, to the status of national heroes and now their names, and his work, will live on forever.</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Ukrainians could hardly have done more to advance the cause of Eurasian sovereignty and to hasten the demise of their still-born, foreign-controlled fake mono-ethnic nationalist clan. Assassinating the daughter of a philosopher is an act of Ukrainian national humiliation and its leaders, who ordered the hit, will now wallow in perpetual ignominy and shame.</span></div></div></div><div class="Post_footer_zplXw" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px 15px;"><div class="PostFooter_container_OurjU" id="postFooter" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: space-between; position: relative;"><div class="PostFooter_leftBlock_zXZE3" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row;"><div class="PostFooter_commentsBlock_Typ_7" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; border-bottom: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-right: 20px;"><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 PostFooter_iconComment_erw9j" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; height: 24px; justify-content: center; stroke-width: 1.5px; stroke: rgb(36, 43, 44); width: 24px;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-comment"></use></span></span><span class="PostFooter_commentsCount_fOvdf" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: 9px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">18</span></span></div><div class="Tooltip_container_SI7WJ ReactionSelector_tooltipContainer_wBGho Tooltip_byHover_RQgvf" data-test-id="Tooltip:ROOT" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; height: inherit; position: relative;"><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 ReactionsPost_iconReaction__RBom ReactionsPost_iconReactionMargin_TSBJ3" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 24px; justify-content: center; margin-right: 8px; width: 24px;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-reaction"></use></span></span><div class="ReactionsApplied_content_mKbKS" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex;"><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 ReactionsPost_appliedReaction_oFM2T" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; height: 24px; justify-content: center; margin-left: 0px; stroke-width: 1.88; width: 24px; z-index: 4;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-sad-reaction"></use></span></span><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 ReactionsPost_appliedReaction_oFM2T" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; height: 24px; justify-content: center; margin-left: -6px; stroke-width: 1.88; width: 24px; z-index: 3;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-heart-reaction"></use></span></span><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 ReactionsPost_appliedReaction_oFM2T" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; height: 24px; justify-content: center; margin-left: -6px; stroke-width: 1.88; width: 24px; z-index: 2;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-like-reaction"></use></span></span><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 ReactionsPost_appliedReaction_oFM2T" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; height: 24px; justify-content: center; margin-left: -6px; stroke-width: 1.88; width: 24px; z-index: 1;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-dislike-reaction"></use></span></span></div><div class="ReactionsPost_amount_xhaFo" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; margin: 0px 5px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">39</span></div></div><div class="ShareDropdown_container_GZHim PostFooter_share_OGUhA" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 24px; margin-left: 20px; margin-right: 0px; position: relative; transition: color 0.2s ease 0s; width: 24px;"><button class="ShareDropdown_dropdownButton_e4aiH" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; border: unset; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 24px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; width: 24px;"><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 ShareDropdown_dropdownButtonIcon_djS3m" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; fill: transparent; height: 24px; justify-content: center; stroke-width: 1.5px; stroke: rgb(36, 43, 44); transition: stroke 0.2s ease 0s; width: 24px;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-share"></use></span></span></button></div></div><div class="PostFooter_iconDotsContainer_Ge5D8" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; margin-right: -5px; padding: 5px;"><div class="Dots_iconContainer_m25cs" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; margin-right: -5px; padding: 5px;"><span class="Icon_block_Hvwi5 Dots_icon_ZTL3e PostFooter_iconDots_a89vK" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; fill: rgb(36, 43, 44); height: 24px; justify-content: center; stroke-width: 1.5px; width: 24px;"><svg class="Icon_svg__DRUh"></svg><span style="font-size: medium;"><use xlink:href="#svg-icon-more"></use></span></span></div></div></div></div><div class="Post_comments_jgZKK" id="comments" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; align-items: stretch; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; width: 575px;"><div style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box;"><div style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="CommentView_container_nRpEk" id="comment:887816" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; margin-bottom: 5px; transition: background-color 0.2s ease 0s;"><div class="CommentView_commentWrapper_iWBv8" itemprop="review" itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/Review" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; justify-content: space-between; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 5px 30px 5px 15px; position: relative; word-break: break-word;"><div class="CommentView_left_YsT2_" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-grow: 1; width: 530px;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></div></div></div></div></div></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-11305463870920671232022-08-15T10:10:00.005+02:002022-08-15T10:10:45.626+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Absolutely Horrible Things<div style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 35px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px 15px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><div style="text-align: left;">This is about the worst possible time to be a Ukrainian Nazi. I hate to have to bring them up again and again. Luckily, I won't have to keep doing so for much longer: they are going extinct rather rapidly. But while they are doing so, truly horrible things are going on. To recap, the purpose of Russia's Special Military Operation in the Ukraine, is demilitarization and denazification of the Ukraine... and providing security to Donetsk and Lugansk regions... and Kherson region, and Zaporozhye, and Kharkov, and Nikolaev... and Odessa... and then holding referenda in any and all of the above on them joining the Russian Federation. Call it mission creep. But it's the right kind of mission creep from the Russian perspective: Russia's borders are creeping in the right direction and encompassing more and more of the historically Russian lands. These were part of the Wild Field first settled by Russians under Catherine the Great, putting an end to foreign incursions by Poles and Turks and raids by nomadic tribesmen.</div><span><a name='more'></a></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">But what about the initial goals of demilitarization and denazification. The way the demilitarization is going is described by boring charts regularly published by Russia's Defense Ministry: so many tanks, howitzers, APCs, mortars, rocket launchers, drones and helicopters destroyed. By now 267 population centers, large and small, have been liberated, although some of them are still being shelled using mortars and artillery. By now, the Russians have destroyed much of the initial, Soviet-legacy war materiel and are busy chewing through the NATO-supplied western armaments.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">At this rate, the Ukrainian forces will have nothing to fight with. Already artillery shells and mortars are being rationed, each firing just a handful of missiles a day, just enough to dissuade the Russians from overrunning their defensive positions. Already several of the larger NATO countries, which were at first willing to provide weapons to the Ukrainians, are having second thoughts; first, because, instead of being used in combat in the Ukraine, these weapons are showing up on international black markets, very reasonably priced; and second, because they are becoming rather short of weapons.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">So much for demilitarization; but what about denazification? Here we are forced to introduce a new vocabulary word. Previously, really bad battlefield losses were often referred to as a decimation—after Latin "decima" or one-tenth. Losing a tenth of a company or a battalion was generally considered bad enough for morale to plummet enough to force a retreat or a capitulation. But recent and current battlefield losses among the Ukrainians have often amounted not to a tenth but to half the armed contingent! Thus, instead of decimation, we have to introduce a new Latin term: dimidiation.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">The Russians are attempting to expel the Ukrainian Nazis and occupy and annex the territory with minimal losses. To this end, they use a combination of artillery, drones and electronic countermeasures. The around-the-clock artillery barrages, with trainloads of shells delivered to the frontlines on a daily basis, are being used to disassemble hardened concrete bunkers along the Ukrainians' defensive lines and to dimidiate the Ukrainian troops hiding therein. The artillery fire is being made extremely accurate by the use of small, inexpensive drones, which allow its aim to be perfected. Electronic countermeasures deafen and blind the Ukrainian troops, rendering them unable to communicate with their command or to obtain battlefield intelligence.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">Finding it hopeless to accurately target the Russian forces, they instead fire randomly in the general direction of nearby civilian areas, specializing in targets that can't possibly fire back. Just recently a Ukrainian tank, on what is still Ukrainian-controlled territory in the former Mennonite colony called New York, pulled up to a kindergarten called "Goldfish" and fired its cannon at it, point blank.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">But this is a trifle; far more serious are Ukrainian efforts to destroy civilian infrastructure and industrial installations. As a result of these efforts, parts of Donetsk remain with electricity and water for days on end as crews rush to restore service, working under sporadic bombardment. The Ukrainians have also taken to shelling bridges across the Dnepr, hoping that this will slow the Russians' advance.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">And the most heinous such effort of all is the Ukrainian shelling, from across the Dnepr, of the Zaparozhskaya nuclear power plant. With its six relatively modern Russian-built reactors, it is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and has formerly supplied fully a quarter of the Ukraine's electricity needs. The reactors themselves are protected by shells of steel and concrete several meters thick that are unlikely to be breached by the shelling, but there are also spent fuel pools on site that have to be continuously cooled using circulation pumps, and these require an intact electricity supply. These can potentially be damaged to a point where the spent fuel assembles burst into flame and contaminate much of Central and Western Ukraine, as well as much of Eastern Europe, with long-lived radionuclides, driving up cancer rates for many generations.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">That the Ukrainians are bombarding the nuclear power plant using US-supplied weapons and, quite obviously, with US-sanction, illustrates the utter contempt the Americans feel for the well-being of their European allies. And, for all we know, the Americans' European vassals may even welcome the possibility of another Chernobyl on which to blame their economic fiascos. The cynicism behind such calculations is simply breathtaking!</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">It is useful to look back and see whether reality matches predictions. Back on March 10th, 2022 (which seems like ages ago) I wrote the following on the subject of denazification:</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">"There are three phases; two of them are taking place right now, and one will take place once peace is established on the entire territory of the former Ukraine. Phase 1 is to physically kill the Nazis; the Russian military is taking care of that, with hundreds of dead Nazis accumulating daily. Phase 2 is to have the Nazis run off to the European Union: if they like their Nazis, they can have their Nazis. It would be a supreme irony if it ends up that Germany is forced to organize concentration camps for Nazis and to herd all of these loose Ukrainian war criminals into them.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">"And then there is Phase 3: taking care of those Nazis, near-Nazis, Nazi sympathizers and various assorted criminal types who stay and go into hiding, trying to blend in with the civilian population. Well, the civilian population is sure to remember who held them hostage and tortured them while the Russians tried to organize humanitarian corridors for them to escape or to deliver humanitarian aid to keep them fed! All that's needed will be to offer a financial reward to anyone who reports them. In many cases that won't even be needed: we live in the age of Big Data and the Russians are recording every phone call and every text message. All the Nazis have been pinned down to a location, voice-printed and their photos have been fed into face recognition software. Quoting George W. Bush, 'they can run, but they can't hide.'"</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">Now, a mere five months later, we see that Phases 1 and 2 are coming right along, with lots of Ukrainian Nazis scattered to the four winds of the European Union and beyond while somewhere around five hundred of their brethren are dispatched to their maker on a daily basis. Phase 3 turned out to be a nonevent on the territories the Russians have liberated because the locals have generally refused to provide shelter to the Nazis who attempted to hide in their midst and these were rounded up and sent to prison camps together with the other Ukrainian POWs. </div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgb(36, 43, 44); color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px; text-size-adjust: auto;">It seems too early to tell how it will turn out in the rest of the former Ukraine... and beyond. After all, those who provided arms, training, intelligence and money to the Nazis are not exactly free of the Nazi contagion. Where will the Russian denazification operation have to end? Will it be another instance of mission creep? Or perhaps the Europeans will wake up and take care of their own Nazis without Russian help? We should certainly hope so</div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-80293066980030460412022-08-06T19:59:00.000+02:002022-08-06T19:59:05.423+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Waiting for the Russians<div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">When the Ukraine's Azov Battalion (Swastika-tattooed, drug-addled Nazi berserkers) was finally forced off the streets of Mariupol, a Russian town of half a million on the shores of the Azov Sea, and into the cavernous basements of the metallurgical plant, the residents, who had been forced to hide from the machine gun fire and the shelling in the basements of their own apartment buildings, were at first reluctant to leave their shelters. Then some of them, listening to the noise outside, heard loud shouts of "Allahu akbar!" ("Glory to God"). They breathed a deep sigh of relief—"the Russians are finally here!"—and flooded out onto the streets to greet their Russian liberators, who were, in this case, Chechen special forces.<span><a name='more'></a></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">This little real-life vignette may leave you confused. How can your valiant Ukrainian friends be Nazis? Your government has lavished countless billions in military aid on them, all of which swiftly disappeared into a sort of black hole with nothing to show for it except for a continuous string of military retreats, defeats and humiliations. Meanwhile, more and more of your own people can't even afford to heat or cool their homes or feed their children properly. That must really sting! And how can Mariupol, a major Ukrainian industrial center formerly responsible for roughly a tenth of the former Ukraine's GDP, turn out to be peopled almost exclusively by white-blue-and-red flag-waving, patriotic Russians? And how can Russians feel happy to be liberated by Moslem fighters shouting "Allahu akbar"—aren't they Orthodox Christian, not Moslem?</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">The Ukrainian Nazis are Nazis because their ideology is Nazi. According to this evil concoction, Ukrainians are racially superior and distinct from all other Russians for being pure Slavs whereas the other Russians are an admixture of Slavic, Ugro-Finnish, Turkic and other ethnic groups. Their supposed racial purity and superiority makes it OK for them to kill and to torture anyone who isn't them—Poles, Russians and especially Jews. They feel perfectly justified in shelling residential districts populated by such Untermenschen and to use such civilians as human shields. And when that tactic fails and they are forced to retreat, they shell schools, hospitals and kindergartens in the districts they abandoned. Over a hundred buildings now need to be repaired before the start of the school year in Donetsk alone. Shelling sick people and children is a lot safer than shelling Russian troops, who fire right back.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">If Americans and other Anglos, and various hostages of the EU, find it difficult to comprehend that the Ukrainians are Nazis, then that may be because they themselves have a touch of the Nazi disease. After all, they have been financing Nazis and enabling their war crimes for some nine years now—long enough for the mental poison to spread and seep in. In turn, the Ukrainian Nazis feel a great kinship for the Anglos, as they had for the German Nazis during World War II, and this feeling is hardly misplaced, for the Anglos are also great slaughterers and torturers of peoples, as countless surviving eye witnesses from Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and Yemen, among others, will attest. Murderous sentiments aside, they would be well advised not to trust the Anglos, for there is no honor among war criminals. To wit, there are currently 74,274 Afghanis who worked for the Americans during the occupation and who are still, and probably forever, awaiting permission to come to the US. It will be the same with the Ukrainians: once they are no longer useful to their Anglo masters, they will be abandoned and forgotten.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">These days political correctness demands that people in the West curb their appetite for referring to blacks and Asians by such outmoded appellations as Negros, Kaffirs, Coolies or Orientals, but there is no such requirement vis-à-vis the Russians, and Russophobia is quite acceptable and even a requirement for entry into polite society. Mention that Putin is one of the most popular national leaders ever, or that he is quite successful by most metrics of societal well-being, and you will be asked to leave. On the other hand, Russians can be endlessly caricatured as a bloodthirsty bear and otherwise dehumanized, to a point where people in the West have been unable to see that a genocide has been perpetuated in former Eastern Ukraine going on nine years now because, you see, the people being genocided aren't quite human—they are mere Russian Unterrmeschen.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">One interesting feature of being a Russophobe is that it automatically makes you an Antisemite. How's that?—you may ask. Aren't Russians and Jews ethnically and religiously distinct? Why, not at all! Russian Jews, of whom there are over a million in Russia and as many as 10 million worldwide, are not particularly ethnically distinct at all because of extensive intermarriage and the vast majority of them is culturally and linguistically Russian. While under Hebrew law Jews have to be born of a Jewish mother, under Russian law it's a free choice: any Russian with Jewish ancestry can elect to have their nationality recorded as Jewish—or simply as Russian. Nor is it compulsory for a Russian Jew to espouse Judaism (or, as is more often the case with Jews, Atheism) and there are plenty of Russian Jews who are Russian Orthodox. Thus, being a Russophobe automatically makes one an Antisemite—one step away from a Nazi. Jewish Russophobes are not exempt, Zionism having been equated with racism according to UN Resolution 3379 of 1975.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Russians can be all sorts of interesting combinations of things, you see. They speak hundreds of different languages, from Abkhaz to Yakut, but invariably use Russian as a lingua franca. They are religiously diverse, and while many are Orthodox Christian, about a quarter of them is Moslem. Internally, Russia is wonderfully complex and diverse; externally, everyone is Russian. Since Russia is unique on our planet in numerous ways, there is no point to assigning Russia to a class. Is it an empire, a civilization, a community of nations or some other thing that fits the English "X is a Y" class membership pattern? Who cares! Russia is Russia. This doesn't sit well with some zipper-headed Westerners who are forever dreaming of breaking Russia up into bite-sized pieces that they can then analyze into something they can comprehend and make use of.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Alas, that is not to be. Russia, as a living organism, breathes. When it inhales, it grows larger, expanding to encompass various regions along its endless borders; when it exhales, these border regions often attempt to claim their sovereignty—and invariably fail, swiftly becoming a colonial possession of some great power du jour. Right now, Russia is inhaling, and when it's done it will expand to somewhere between the size of the USSR and the size of the Russian Empire. Will Finland and Poland once again become Russian? Will Russia regain Alaska, Hawaii and Northern California? Only time will tell, but time is ripe for a major shift.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Russia's current inhale couldn't possibly come at a better time (for Russia). Its nemesis, which is the United States, is shriveling in real time. Its outsized appetites can only be fed by continuous debt expansion while its debt, which now eclipses all other debt pyramids the world has ever seen by orders of magnitude, is starting to cave in. A third of it is held by foreigners, who are getting rid of it as fast as they can (China got rid of $100 billion last month; Japan, a bit more). Another third of it is held by the Federal Reserve (which sits atop a festering heap of financial garbage kept hidden behind smoke and mirrors) and most of a remaining third is held by financial entities of various kinds that subsist on a continuous influx of Federal Reserve-issued liquidity and will instantly shrivel up when deprived of it. America's ability to fleece the planet had rested on its military might, but the humiliating end to its occupation of Afghanistan showed that might to be largely fictional. If the US now loses the Ukraine, that may well deal its dreams of full-spectrum dominance the final coup de grace.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Meanwhile, the leadership of the collective West is comprised of badly educated political midgets who do their best to ignore the rapidly approaching destitution of their constituents, but what is no longer possible to ignore is that the West no longer presents a positive image of societal well-being when compared to a stable and increasingly prosperous Russia. Peoples living on Russia's vast fringes will ask themselves: do we want to shiver in the dark while eating insects like the Germans, or do we want to lounge around in lingerie while it's -40ºC outside and blowing a blizzard, and eat pork kebabs whenever we like, as the Russians do? When asked whether they want to be poor and sick or rich and healthy, most people naturally opt for the latter. If all goes well, Russia will inhale them; if not, they will be left to languish on their own.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Coming back now to former Ukraine and what will become of it, by now the picture is quite clear. Russia can continue its special operation to demilitarize and denazify the Ukraine for as long as it takes, but it shouldn't take too much longer. People in the West have already started to wake up to what the ever-shrinking Ukraine has become—a failed state infested by war criminals. Some have taken to referring to it as a black hole: money and weapons go in and nothing comes out. But that is a mischaracterization: it is not a black hole but a sieve. Money pours in and settles in the offshore accounts of the Kiev junta. Weapons are shipped in and are either sold—to Russia or to various terrorist groups in Europe and beyond—or they are blown up using Russian rockets or left abandoned as the Ukrainian forces retreat.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Demilitarization is ongoing; by now, around 80% of all the weapons the Ukrainian army had at the beginning of 2022 have been destroyed; weapons being shipped in by NATO are being destroyed shortly after they arrive. Denazification is going well too; 80% of the original, highly indoctrinated Nazi battalions have been killed off already. Casualties on the Ukrainian side number in the hundreds per day while the Russians do their work from the safety of a stand-off distance and only move in when it's safe. The Ukrainian military is being forced to round up untrained reservists and draftees (including women) and sending them to the front where they are killed, surrender, defect or otherwise try to escape.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">It is still too early to describe the overall end state, but some of it has already come into focus. The historically Russian provinces, which comprise the entire southeast of the former Ukraine, from Kharkov in the north to Odessa in the south and everything in between, will end up once again within Russia's borders. Nobody knows yet what will happen to Kiev or to former Western Ukraine. Kiev is valuable to Russia as a historically Russian city; the rest, much less so. It may end up as an analogue of the Idlib province in Syria—a designated gremlin preserve.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">In the meantime, large parts of former Ukraine are waiting for the Russians to roll in and liberate them. The pace of advance will pick up once the West realizes that their pet black hole is much too ravenous for their increasingly strained budgets and once the Kiev junta realizes that there is nothing left for it to steal and decamps for parts unknown (its members are currently forbidden from traveling abroad for fear of desertion). This could take weeks or months, but probably not years. In the meantime, the black hole will stay there, gobbling up billions of dollars and euros and thousands of weapons systems and mercenaries—for the Russians to blow up using artillery and rockets. Western politicians, who are continuing to squander resources on the Kiev junta, are still waiting for something... but what? At this point the only answer that seems to makes sense is that they too are waiting for the Russians</div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-84746633396685051332022-08-05T09:42:00.008+02:002022-08-06T20:59:51.589+02:00Dimtry Orlov: Nobody Runs the World<p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Who runs the world? Don't answer; I know. It's the Illuminati, the Bilderbergers, the Trilateral Commission, the Anglo-Zionists, the Deep State, the Reptiloids, and let's not forget Santa Klaus Schwab and his merry band of billionaire elves. Does that about cover it, or do we need to add more? No? Well, let's leave it at that, then. It probably feels good to be so certain about who runs the world. I am not so certain, so I wouldn't know.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">There is a fly in this ointment, though: the leaders of the world keep announcing their plans and then failing at them horribly. Your reptiloid masters just don't look like world leader material when they turn out to be standing, buck naked, out in the pouring rain, and doing their little "Milk-milk-lemonade, round the corner fudge is made" act, again and again. Let's run down a list of recent fiascos:</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Where is Juan Guaidó, the fearless leader of Venezuela who was supposed to be providing US oil companies with unimpeded access to Venezuelan heavy crude, so necessary for enriching thin oil produced by fracking in order make it possible to make diesel and jet fuel from it? Last I heard, he is getting beaten up by his own people when he shows up in public.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Where is Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, or "Svyatlana Tskikhanouskaya" if you want to fail at faking a Belarussian accent. She was the putative cutlet queen of Belarus thanks to whose intrepid subservience NATO would be able to confront Russia with a continuous bulwark of hostile states (five of them former parts of the USSR) stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea? I believe she is too busy making cutlets in Lithuania to be of much assistance.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Where is Alexei Navalny, the Russian beauty blogger who was supposed to have replaced Vladimir Putin by now and be presiding over a dismembering of the Russian Federation for the benefit of foreign energy and mining conglomerates? He is sewing uniforms at a Russian prison colony. On the plus side, prison fare and regular access to the exercise yard seem to be good for his health: he has lost enough weight to lose the embarrassing nickname of "Ovalny".</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Where is Mikheil Saakashvili, the US-educated (Columbia, George Washington U.) former president of Georgia? He is cooling his heels in a Georgian prison and no longer entertains any political ambitions whatsoever. Alas, we will no longer be entertained by his wonderful antics such as eating his tie on camera, being chased by police over rooftops or muscling his way across border checkpoints.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">As a counterexample, there is Bashar "Assad must go!" of Syria, who is, rather embarrassingly, still very much there. The American troops are there too, guarding some oil fields and doing their best to avoid fraught encounters with the Russians, who are also still there, at Bashar al-Assad's invitation.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">The leaders of the world sure know how to pick a winner</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">We could also pile on all of their military fiascos.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">How did the mission to rid Afghanistan of the Taliban go? The Taliban is also still there and stronger than ever. How about the effort to get rid the world of ISIS? The Russians pretty much did that job in Syria and Iraq, with Iranian help, but now ISIS is three times more numerous in Afghanistan than it was just a year ago. Biden just took credit for the mafia-style assassination of the very old Afghani figurehead al-Zawahiri. That counts for an American victory now; how pathetic is that?</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">What about Libya? Yes, Muammar Qaddafy is dead. Yes, Libya went from the richest country in Africa to one of the poorest. But Libyan oil production went from one million barrels a day to zero barrels a day and Qaddafy's enemies are now paying more for their oil imports than they have in a generation. Oh, and ISIS is in Libya too. Was that really the intention?</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">I hate to bring it up, but what about the former Ukraine? Was it really the intention to squander countless billions in weapons and money on awarding to Russia a huge chunk of territory peopled by Russians who are now, thanks to the abuse they have suffered at the hands of the Ukrainian nationalists, some of the most patriotic Russians in the world? That chunk of territory has some of the world's most fertile arable land and, together with its Soviet-era industry, accounted for some 90% of the former Ukraine's GDP. Without it, the former Ukraine becomes just a useless patch of nothingness run by war criminals which Russia's enemies will now have to support.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">The item currently all over the news is Taiwan. Well, what about it? Nancy Pelosi is either in Taiwan or flying back, after a very short whirlwind tour of Southeast Asia. She went to Taiwan because, with gas prices in California bumping up against $10/gallon, her only hope of getting reelected is to stir up big trouble in little China. And get reelected she must because of her thieving husband: the moment she is out of office, uncomfortable questions will be asked about her and her hubby's unsound business ethics and undue influence. And so this old crone, 83 years ancient, who can barely totter about on spindly legs while croaking out mangled platitudes ("Glory to Wuhan and president Kevensky!" was her memorable Ukrainian battle cry), dove into the fray to meet with Taiwan's Clown Princess (whose government is unrecognized by anyone including the US).</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Joe Biden had to spend two hours on the phone with Xi Jinping, trying to convince him that he doesn't even remember who Nancy is and that this is just a private visit, not any sort of state visit at all. Mike Pompeo, the former CIA and State Dept. head, wanted to tag along on Pelosi's trip but was told to take a hike: he can't go to Taiwan because he is persona non grata in China and Taiwan is part of China. Meanwhile, the Chinese held live fire drills on the shores and in the waters all around Taiwan while the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan steamed about purposelessly nowhere near Taiwan, thereby supposedly defending Nancy.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">And the end result of all this is that the Taiwanese, as punishment for being internationally promiscuous, will have to be extra-scrupulous when filling out the paperwork for their voluminous trade with mainland China. Does any of this sound like the US is getting the sort of respect a world superpower should be able to demand?</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">There is no need to stop there, but these examples should suffice to draw an obvious conclusion: the project of running the world is, shall we say, not running smoothly. This, in turn, leads us to question the supposition that somebody is ultimately in charge of the whole affair. But many people still want to believe that the world is being run by someone and for that someone's benefit, because the idea of a world that can't be made profitable for anyone is simply too horrible to contemplate.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">There is a psychological need to believe that someone is ultimately in charge. It is also axiomatic, for people conditioned to worship wealth, that whoever is in charge has to be filthy rich. Worshiping money is baked into the psyche for most people in the formerly piratical nations and the idea of someone or, worse yet, an organized group of people, selflessly serving the common good for the greater glory of God and country fills them with existential dread.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">When the preponderance of evidence that nobody is able to make a profitable use of what is happening endangers this belief, the natural response is to look for a fiendishly clever nemesis to believe in, and that choice naturally falls on Vladimir Putin. This choice is made difficult by the fact that Vladimir Putin is a modest man, has neither time nor desire to amass great wealth, exists at public expense and will probably live happily on a state pension if he lives long enough. Therefore, all sorts of ridiculous fiction has been produced to endow him with vast palaces (which turn out to be 3D models of hotels).</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Within the common mindset, Putin simply must be some sort of pirate or parasite. That mindset has been formed over the past five centuries of successful colonial piracy and parasitism, rapine, plunder and genocide. A population that has been conditioned over many generations to survive and do well on the proceeds of piracy is naturally inclined to look for a successful pirate or group of pirates to latch onto and slavishly serve, for that is the ultimate recipe for success in a piratical system.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">But the world is no longer so conducive to piracy: it is either too destitute for vast fortunes to be made from piracy or guarded too well by powerful militaries. Piracy is no longer a good vocation for ambitious young people, and the pirates are aging out, growing weak and senile. The best they can do is use their remaining crystallized skills to continue trying what had worked for them before, not even noticing when it no longer works. Unable to learn anything new, the world, which is changing more rapidly than ever before, is becoming a strange and unfamiliar place for them. Instead of attempting to analyze new situations and formulate new plans, they concentrate on formulating and perpetuating soothing narratives while blocking out all conflicting narratives that might expose their weakness.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Speaking of narratives, they are still able to blot out the sun for those held captive within the corporate media space, but the death of postmodernist critique is fast approaching. The reason is simple: nobody can deconstruct death. Dead people don't formulate fanciful new narratives. Here's how that works, taking everyone's favorite example, the former Ukraine.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">The Ukrainians put together a giant media conglomerate, lavishly financed, that is in charge of formulating narratives, media fakes, provocations, memes and other postmodern junk with the goal of jamming the media space full of their propaganda. Their idea was that the Russians would be unable to compete. But the Russians, as usual, did something so contrary that it blew everyone's mind: they won the propaganda war—the war for public opinion within Russia and for the hearts and minds of the Russians who were trapped within Ukraine for the past 30 years—without so much as showing up for it.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Instead of narratives, fakes or memes they limited themselves to perfectly dry, factual reports: which territories and populations centers passed to Russian control, how many liberated districts have been shelled by retreating Ukrainian Nazis with how many apartment blocks, schools, hospitals and other public buildings damaged, how many Ukrainian Nazis have been killed or taken prisoner (the numbers are astoundingly huge!), how many tanks, APCs, drone aircraft, rocket launchers, munition dumps, etc., have been blown up. And instead of tired old tirades about freedom, democracy, Western unity, universal values and other such trash they sing songs and recite poems that tend to cause Russians to smile beatifically while cathartic tears stream down their faces and to feel deliriously happy to be in Mother Russia's loving arms.</span></p><p><span face="Inter, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #242b2c;">Facts are stubborn things, facts about death doubly so, and fanciful narratives about death are, if anything, in very poor taste and may get you beaten up by the relatives of the deceased. Moreover, they cannot serve any serious propaganda function. A key fact about the Illuminati, the Bilderbergers, the Trilateral Commission, the Anglo-Zionists, the Deep State, the Reptiloids, and let's not forget Santa Klaus Schwab and his merry band of billionaire elves, is that they are all aging out. Much of the US Congress is ready for the bingo parlor and the shuffleboard court. After old age comes death and their stories of running the world will die with them. After that children will be taught that there once was an age of pirates that lasted for some five centuries but that now it is over.</span></p>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-59798435369719850712022-08-05T09:38:00.001+02:002022-08-05T09:38:27.373+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Introduction - the Moscow World Standard<p> </p><a href="https://boosty.to/cluborlov/posts/b467c87c-2d46-4df9-87a1-be6f01d8c81a/photo/00afc889-a401-4673-a426-dbf18558838d?from=email&from_type=new_post" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #f15f2c; cursor: pointer; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: border-color 0.2s ease 0s;"><img alt="" class="BlockRenderer_image_NEsbT" role="presentation" src="https://images.boosty.to/image/00afc889-a401-4673-a426-dbf18558838d?change_time=1659103013&mw=1090" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; image-orientation: from-image; margin: 15px auto; max-width: 100%;" width="" /></a><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Please consider the following two bits of news. First, head of Russia's Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, in the midst of these uncertain times, takes the time to visit Africa. His itinerary includes Egypt, Uganda, Congo and Ethiopia. Second, Russia proposes a new international standard for trading in precious metals: the Moscow World Standard (MWS) which will become an alternative to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) which systematically manipulates precious metals markets to depress prices. According to Russia's Finance Ministry, this new, independent international structure is necessary for "normalizing the functioning of the precious metals sector" and its creation is "critically important."<span><a name='more'></a></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">The basis of this new structure will be a new, specialized international precious metals brokerage headquartered in Moscow, which will rely on the MWS. Also proposed is a committee for fixing precious metals prices composed of central banks and largest banks of countries that are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia) that currently have a presence on the precious metals market.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">According to the Russian Finance Ministry, precious metals prices will be fixed either in the national currencies of key member-countries or using new monetary units used in international trade—for instance, the new BRICS currency proposed by Putin.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">The Finance Ministry wants to make membership in this organization attractive to all market participants, especially China, India, Venezuela, Peru and other South American countries, as well as Africa. It aims to swiftly destroy the monopoly of LBMA and to provide for stable development of the precious metals sector.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">In essence, Russia proposes to create a market for gold, platinum, etc., which will be regulated by countries that control the resources for these metals. This would be, simply put, a revolution. On the basis of this new market, it intends to further the system of bilateral trade in national currencies that specifically excludes dollars, euros and pounds.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">And now, some statistics on the world gold supply. The production share of the US and other hostile nations* produce a grand total of 22% of the world's gold. Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS and Africa, together, produce 57%—already a controlling share. Now add Peru and Venezuela, and the number goes up to 62%.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">To put it in the plainest terms possible, Russia is colluding with a number of other countries to exclude the dollar, the euro and the pound from the system of international settlements, starting with precious metals but not necessarily stopping there. These countries control a lion's share of gold production. For starters, Russia has fixed the price of gold in rubles at 5000₽/g, which works out to $2,447.17 per troy ounce. This compares rather favorably to the current LBMA fix of $1,737.84. The days of LBMA's ability to drive down gold prices using paper gold manipulation appear be nearing the end.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">A related bit of news: Zimbabwe, that poster boy for hyperinflation, just introduced into circulation a gold coin.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">*Unfriendly countries make up just 15% of the world population and currently include Albania, Andorra, Australia, Bahamas, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Guernsey, Iceland, Japan, Liechtenstein, Isle of Man, Micronesia, Monaco, Montenegro, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Norway, San Marino, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan (part of China), Ukraine, United Kingdom (including Jersey, Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands, and Gibraltar), United States, and European Union (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden and Czech Republic)</div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-11086433767588283562022-07-12T12:52:00.003+02:002022-08-06T21:00:41.814+02:00Dimitry Orlov: The Real Perpetuum Mobile<div style="text-align: left;"><span><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>Dreams of a perpetual motion monetary machine are being dashed, to be replaced by pain and disappointment. The US went under heavy monetary sedation in 2020 and hasn't regained consciousness yet. It attempted to create an illusion of a perpetuum mobile: a state of affairs where it is possible to chaotically flood the markets with unlimited liquidity without suffering any consequences, all the while enjoying a fleeting sense of immortality. The markets are bubbling away, the budget deficit is unbounded, there is no inflation and all is sweetness and light!<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span>At that time, the US federal government, beguiled by a feeling of invulnerability and suffering from a permanent lapse of reason, generated endless rescue plans. Helicopter money fluttered about endlessly: around $1 trillion in March to May of 2021; $1.2 trillion of infrastructure plans from November 7, 2021. There were dozens of such plans spawned into being by Biden et al.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>When their faith in immortality reached its apogee, fear faded away, brains shut down, and $6 trillion was given away to all who could possibly soak it up for any sort of shoddy excuse. People were literally being forced to shut up and take the fake money.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>Back then, in 2020 and in first half of 2021, when inflation was still low, it seemed that this state of affairs would last forever. It was being said at the time that inflation is temporary and being caused by various transitory and nonrecurring factors. These factors would go away, it was being said, and the situation would normalize. Now there is a new topic for such shameless banter: that there is no risk of recession—none at all! They are trying to manipulate public opinion using idiotic official predictions of 2.5% GDP growth for 2022.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>In both cases they were dead wrong. Inflation is at a 40-year high while the economy has entered a terminal crisis. Standard procedures of reacting to it would be useless in finding an exit from it.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>Specifically, any attempt to conjure up consumer demand out of thin air is doomed to failure. All previous attempts at doing so have failed. Real per capita household consumer spending in the US in May 2022 is just 1.5% higher than in February 2022. Incomes are 0.6% higher, but if you subtract government handouts it is 0.6% lower.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>Inflation is destroying everything, and the wave of destruction won't crest until every single fake dollar disgorged by the Fed is burned up in an inflationary hell. But that will just be the start. For decades now the US got rich on its ability to blackmail the whole planet, making it possible for it to import all sorts of things in exchange for promissory notes that eventually become worthless.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>That ill-gotten wealth will now be expropriated in a process known as asset-stripping: anything that isn't nailed down will be crated up and shipped off just to keep the product lifelines functioning a little longer. And then there will be the reparations for all the US war crimes of the past half-century. Oh, and wasn't it the US that engineered Covid-19 and unleashed it on the planet? How much do you think the compensation for that heinous act will come to? A whole lot, I would think! But let's not forget the little stuff, like the costs of environmental clean-up for all the US military bases around the world that are about to be abandoned.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>Paying for this with fake printed money isn't going to work and there is just not that much demand for internal organs for transplantation. Americans have been doing brisk business in stem cells from aborted fetuses, but that's limited by the number of sick rich people who can afford stem cell therapy, plus the recent Supreme Court decision on abortions will probably derail that business</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span>To my mind, there is no way for the US to ever repay all of its debts. But it should be possible for the US to perpetually make payments against it by becoming a sort of agrarian and mining powerhouse, growing crops and digging up minerals by hand and delivering them to the loading docks in mule trains.</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span>Of course, this would involve bringing back slavery, but that shouldn't be a problem: at present there are more African-Americans toiling away in US prisons than there were Negros toiling away on plantations prior to the Civil War. To make it politically palatable, it would be best not to call it slavery but to disguise it and dress it up with cute eco-symbols and catchy slogans such as "you will own nothing and you will be happy."</span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="background-color: white; color: #1b2021; font-family: Arial; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span>And that, my friends, would be a true perpetuum mobile: the US forever working to pay down its debts—until the next ice age rolls around.</span></p></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-82659098438477836392022-07-07T09:40:00.002+02:002022-07-07T09:40:29.006+02:00Dimitry Orlov: The Fading Phantom of Western Unity
It is often possible to diagnose people's problems by taking note of what they repeatedly, compulsively bring up in conversation. These tend to be objects of their ardent desire that happen to be woefully lacking in their lives. <span><a name='more'></a></span><div><br /></div><div>For example, Americans will often talk compulsively about guns, which they tend to see as a way of providing for their personal security. This is because they are woefully lacking in personal security: at any moment some armed-to-the-teeth crazed maniac (of which there are millions circulating freely in their midst) could come at them and blast them away—while they are sleeping, or picking up their children at school, or sitting on the toilet, or bending down to pick up a penny. Thus they arm themselves to the teeth and subsist in a state of paranoid rage. </div><div><br /></div><div>Another example: American leaders compulsively mention "freedom and democracy." These are things that they supposedly have and must spread over the rest of the planet, whether the planet wants it or not. Specifically, the rest of the planet should not be allowed to democratically vote against this American "freedom and democracy" nonsense and remain blissfully free of it. Given that the US itself is not a democracy (as can easily be proven with numbers), what US politicians mean by "democracy" is anything but. </div><div><br /></div><div>But by now most of the planet has figured out, all on its own, what is or isn't "democratic" in American parlance: those who follow American dictate are democratic; those who wish to follow their own advice are undemocratic. That's all it is: democrats are obedient while the disobedient are dictators who must be overthrown. This scheme being rather transparently self-serving and idiotic, the circle of obedience is ever shrinking and at this point encompasses just the EU and NATO countries, plus the Anglo countries and a few remaining scattered colonies and dependencies. And even this circle is now visibly fraying around the edges. </div><div><br /></div><div>And this brings us to the next ardently desired but woefully lacking phantom entity to compulsively bring up at every international meeting where US or EU representatives are to be found: Western unity, in pursuit of which all sorts of stupid, self-defeating actions are being attempted, from throwing money and weapons at the thieving Ukrainians (with no thought given to where any of it ends up) to imposing self-defeating sanctions on Russia (with no thought given to what one's own people will heat their houses or grow their food with). Since the substance behind such futile actions is becoming rather toxic as a topic of public discourse, discussions tend to short-circuit to public shows of unity rather than any unified actions: "Hey, look, everybody, we gave the Ukrainians a few more bullets, thus postponing their inevitable defeat by a few more seconds!" </div><div><br /></div><div>Some shows of Western unity are so pathetically self-defeating as to require special mention. The hapless Baltic statelets are run by some people whose main ambition is to produce pathetic demonstrations of Western unity in opposition to "Russian aggression" whereas their real fear is that Russia will simply ignore them. That's what the Americans told them to do, and that's what they'll do, their local populations be damned. </div><div><br /></div><div>And so, Lithuania's leaders, in a paroxysm of suicidal insanity, blocked Russian transit through Lithuanian territory to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. They said that they were only following EU sanctions against Russia; however, these sanctions say nothing about transit between Russia and Russia and apply to Russian trade with the EU. Furthermore, a standing Russia-EU agreement specifically allows such transit. In a rare show of good sense, first the EU leadership, then German, told Lithuania in no uncertain terms to cut it out. This put the Lithuanian leadership in a state of stupor in which they have persisted for close to a week now. </div><div><br /></div><div>And then there is this juicy little fact: while Russia can shift all of its Kaliningrad traffic to ferries running between it and its recently built gigantic port at Ust'-Luga (Leningrad Region), it can also literally shut down all of Lithuania (along with the neighboring Latvia and Estonia) by stopping all train traffic between Poland and Lithuania, which has to pass through Kaliningrad. You see, rail track in the Baltics is of the wider, Russian gauge and the transfer point between cars that use the 1,435mm European rail and ones that use the 1,520mm Russian gauge used throughout the former USSR happens to be in Kaliningrad. Shutting down the transfer would shave roughly half off the already languishing Baltic economies (inflation in Lithuania is over 20%).
But Lithuania's little freakout is just a pathetic little side-show. The main show of Western unity was supposed to be centered on the G7 meeting that took place in an isolated German castle, Schloss Elmau, away from the madding crowd of protestors. At this secluded venue, representatives from the USA, Germany, Britain, Italy, Canada, France and Japan were supposed to demonstrate their unity concerning Russian activities in the former Ukraine. Since all of their previous decisions had zero effect on Russia's position, some people expressed high hopes that decisive action would result from this gathering. It is interesting to note that at this gathering a couple chaperones from the European Union (Ursula von der Lyin' and Charles Michel) were also on hand; thus, not only Western unity is sorely lacking, but also Western sovereignty. </div><div><br /></div><div>The first bit of such decisive action was the American proposal to sanction the sales of Russian gold, which amounts to 10% of total world production. Germany, France and Italy did not support this brave initiative, deferring to other EU members, who were not present, and the proposal wend down like a lead balloon. </div><div><br /></div><div>Second piece of new business was the proposal to place a ceiling on the price of Russian oil. The mechanics of the G7 placing a ceiling on something that is controlled by Russia were left up to subsequent discussion, of which nothing more has been heard, so let's briefly discuss it. </div><div><br /></div><div>If the ceiling were higher than market price for Russian crude, then the ceiling would operate vacuously; if lower, then Russia would simply refuse to sell at that price. In response, the world price for oil would immediately surge upward. Russia would then be in a position to offer preferred-customer discounts to its non-G7 buyers, pocket the windfall and perhaps use it to buy some more missiles with which to blast away at the remaining Ukrainian Nazis. Take that, Putin! </div><div><br /></div><div>The topic of the Ukraine was an incidental, albeit very necessary, diversion from the initially planned main topic of the G7 meeting: combating climate change. Here, most of the discussion was centered on the return to the use of fossil fuels. In this sense, unity prevailed, but at the cost of throwing overboard any dreams of climate change mitigation. </div><div><br /></div><div>The initial impetus behind the climate change juggernaut was to virtue-signal by putting up lots of expensive wind and solar farms in the rich West while threatening to impose all sorts of fines and fees on less wealthy nations that are forced to burn dirty, climate-warming coal in order to make products for the West to buy with printed money. But now this scheme has failed, the West is no longer rich and, having refused to avail itself of clean and plentiful Russian natural gas, it is busy opening up its mothballed coal-fired power plants and finding enough coal for them. Meanwhile, the green agenda is out the window. The all-but-forgotten Greta Tunberg was briefly in the news; poor Greta is now being suspected of being a Russian agent! </div><div><br /></div><div>Interestingly, coal is good for providing base load but useless for rapid maneuvering, making it incompatible with the variable and intermittent energy output from wind and solar farms; therefore, these expensive toys will have to remain disconnected from the grid much of the time. Also interestingly, Russia provides roughly a fifth of world's coal exports and will not be exactly hurt as the EU switches from Russian natural gas (which a relatively clean fuel that can be used directly for transportation and is very useful as a feedstock for making lots of products, from plastics to fertilizers) to Russian coal (which isn't nearly as versatile). Again, take that, Putin! </div><div><br /></div><div>The Ukraine was next on the agenda. It was swiftly conceded that the G7 can do nothing to stop Russia's Special Military Operation in the former Ukraine. Beyond that, Western unity proved elusive as Britain's Boris Johnson pointedly warned the French president Emmanuel Macron that now is not the time to speak of a diplomatic solution. Considering that the day before the start of the summit both USA and Germany called for a diplomatic way out of the Ukrainian conflict, this wasn't Johnson's most unifying move ever; but then Johnson really needs the Ukraine to remain ablaze for as long as possible in order to distract his constituents from the dire economic situation back home and nonstop scandals within Johnson's own cabinet. Unlike Germany, Britain isn't (yet) inundated with disagreeable Ukrainian migrants, many of whom are allergic to work and feel entitled to a government handout. </div><div><br /></div><div>As is now traditional at Western gatherings, the assembled worthies whipped out the Ouija board and summoned the spirit of the recently deceased Ukrainian president Zelensky. As usual, Zelensky begged for more weapons (for him to sell to terrorists or for the Russians to destroy mostly before they reach the frontlines). When later Bundeskanzler Scholz was asked if he could offer any specific guarantees with regard to the Ukraine, he demonstrated his usual weird sense of humor by saying: "Yes, I could" immediately followed by "that is all." </div><div><br /></div><div>The only actual step taken was the acceptance of a $600 billion dollar infrastructure plan to further green energy in Africa, Latin America and Asia. This is a symbolic gesture designed to counter the Chinese Road and Belt initiative. To this end, representatives of South Africa, India, Indonesia, Argentina and Senegal were invited to the G7. It was rather transparently wished for these countries to join the good fight against Russia in the former Ukraine. How did that go? </div><div><br /></div><div>South Africa is a BRICS member whose senior members are Russia and China. BRICS has emerged as a major non-Western counterweight to the G7. So is India, which is now a major buyer of Russian crude oil, exporting refined petroleum products to the US and elsewhere. Argentina has declared its intention to join BRICS, along with Iran. Senegal, which currently chairs the African Union, was one of the first countries to send its leader to Moscow after the start of the Special Military Operation in the former Ukraine this February. None of these countries' representatives said an accusatory word about it at the G7 gathering, before or after. </div><div><br /></div><div>Thus, aside from the phantom $600 billion deal to perhaps build some wind and solar farms in various far-flung parts of the world, nothing at all was achieved at the G7, pointing out the futility of this organization's further existence. </div><div><br /></div><div>Shifting attention now to the NATO summit, which took place on June 29 and 30 in Madrid, and which was also intended to demonstrate Western unity against Russia, it didn't. Germany and France insisted on preserving the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in 1997. However, while that document calls Russia a partner, NATO's current doctrinal documents refer to Russia as the alliance's main threat. To this end, NATO plans to increase the size of its "high readiness" contingent in Eastern Europe to 300.000, bringing it up to somewhere near the size of the Ukrainian military this February, which the Russians drove back and all but destroyed in three months using a small fraction of their army. </div><div><br /></div><div>In a show of unity with France and Germany, Poland's representative Zbigniew Rau declared that Poland considers the Founding Act defunct, as evidenced by NATO's expansion on the eastern front, just as Scholz declared it to be still in effect. Poland appears to be increasingly under British tutelage,. The Brits are concerned about securing a fresh supply of cannon fodder after they are done battling Russia down to the last Ukrainian, and the Poles, by a quirk of their national character, are always ready and willing to do the exact wrong thing.</div><div><br /></div><div> The main intrigue at the NATO summit was the acceptance/nonacceptance into NATO of Sweden and Finland. Sweden has been neutral since the Treaty of Nystad of 1721; Finland, after being liberated from Sweden and later being granted independence by Russia, then fighting against Russia alongside Hitler's troops, swore itself to neutrality at the Treaty of Paris in 1947. The act of these two countries joining NATO directly violates the terms of these treaties and constitutes a breach of these countries' sovereignty; that is, Russia would no longer be legally bound to respect these countries' borders or to maintain state-legal relations with their governments. </div><div><br /></div><div>Such niceties of international law may not make any difference to the collective, highly unified West which chooses to inhabit its own solipsistic "rules-based international order" (the rules being somewhat ad hoc, made up as they go along, in Washington), but for the rest of the world the primacy of treaties over domestic law is foundational and lawful state-legal relations with Russia are essential. </div><div><br /></div><div>As for Russia, Putin said that he is not opposed to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Indeed, why would he be opposed? What's wrong with these two helpless little countries, symbolically backed by a fractious and floundering behemoth that is NATO, choosing to jump into the bear's gaping maw by flouting their treaty obligations. (Specifically, according to the Treaty of Paris, Finland's decision to join any military alliance has to be approved by the UN Security Council, and that approval wasn't even applied for.) </div><div><br /></div><div>But it may not even get that far. As a condition of letting Sweden and Finland join NATO, Turkey's president Erdoğan demanded that they stop supporting Kurdish terrorists and deport to Turkey the ones it wants to put on trial. The Kurdish faction is politically rather powerful in Sweden and it may yet topple the Swedish government in response to such attempts to destroy it. And Finland declared that it won't join NATO unless Sweden does. At the NATO summit Erdoğan gave his grudging approval, but with lots of conditions, and the final decision now goes to the Turkish parliament. So much for NATO unity.
On the all-important subject of the former Ukraine, NATO general secretary Jens Stoltenberg made the usual mouth music about endless support for it, but nobody present mouthed a single word in favor of offering it any actual security guarantees. NATO offers nonlethal support to it, but lethal weapons can only come from individual NATO members, Stoltenberg clarified.</div><div><br /></div><div>Biden clarified the situation further by declaring that the US will stand with the Ukraine to make sure that it... doesn't win. (That is, that the Russians don't win, he later changed his story.) This level of honesty, when the task is to lie-lie-lie, can only come from a demented mind. According to the CNN, a debate is raging inside the White House as to what could possibly be considered a Ukrainian victory, since declaring victory and going home, regardless of outcome, is what Americans generally try to do. Perhaps just the fact that Kiev wasn't occupied by Russian forces yes is enough to claim it as an overall win?</div><div><br /></div><div> A discussion over placing small NATO contingents within former Ukrainian territory well away from the frontline came to nought, for fears of escalating the situation with Russia. Consensus on this initiative proved elusive. In all, NATO appeared to take a perfectly passive stance toward Russia with regard to the former Ukraine. In response, Western media outlets have been prepping the public for accepting the idea of a negotiated peace settlement in the former Ukraine. </div><div><br /></div><div>But is that even possible? Russia is following an easy and flawless logic. If a formerly Ukrainian territory is peopled by Russians who want to be with Russia, then it must be liberated. Lugansk region is free as of yesterday, Donetsk region is next. Kherson is pretty much free, but Kharkov, Zaporozhye and Nikolaev are unfinished business. And there has never been any doubt in anyone's mind that Odessa is also Russian. Oh, and let's not forget Dnepropetrovsk and Sumy. Is Kiev Russian? Well, it has been for most of the past thousand years, give or take a decade here and there! </div><div><br /></div><div>But liberating just that territory would still subjects it to bombardment using Ukrainian long-range weapons, many of them supplied by the West. Therefore, the Russians cannot stop and must liberate even more territory—which also becomes subject to attack. Given that the line between Ukrainians and Russians is notoriously fuzzy, there is no obvious stopping place to this process until Russian territory directly NATO territory. At that point the Russians will become likely to say, "Sure, let's make a deal." </div><div><br /></div><div>Nor is there is a domestic political reason to stop: public approval for the Special Military Operation in the former Ukraine hovers around 72%, Putin's personal approval rating is at historical highs, the nightly news are full of courageous liberators greeted with open arms by newly liberated residents, who are lining up in droves to receive their Russian passports intermixed with shots of schools, kindergartens and apartment blocks blown up by retreating Ukrainian artillery. The message from back home to the Russian troops is: "Keep going!" </div><div><br /></div><div>On the other hand, there are perfectly good reasons not to negotiate with the Ukrainian regime. First, it is not in any sense sovereign or autonomous. Zelensky's mainly British security detail keeps him safe from his own Nazi zealots; meanwhile, his orders come directly from Washington. Negotiating with the EU over the former Ukraine has been tried before and at this point there is no reason for Russia to trust the EU. And there is no point in negotiating with the US over the former Ukraine either because what business does the US have to even be there? </div><div><br /></div><div>Really, the US should probably just retreat to within its own borders and think hard about weighty issues such as abortion, gun control and national bankruptcy. While the G7 and NATO still make a show of listening to it, the rest of the world is no longer so attentive.</div><div><br /></div><div> Take, for instance, president Joko Widodo of Indonesia, which is the next host of the G20 gathering. Biden asked him to expel Russia from the G20 in response to the Special Military Operation. Instead, Widodo flew to Moscow and signed two major deals: one is a $13 billion deal to buildi an oil refinery with the help of Russia's Rosneft and another is with RZhD, Russia's national rail company, to build 190km of track. </div><div><br /></div><div>The ability of the US to order the whole world around is over. The unipolar world is dead; the world is now not multipolar; it is non-polar. Nobody particularly cares to crisply define any of the new poles. Countries are no longer along a spectrum or even on a map: they are in a multidimensional mesh. </div><div><br /></div><div>Look at the state of all the great Western projects. The idea of a transition to green energy to fight global warming is dead; apparently, coal is the new hydrogen. (Maybe it's Obama's "clean coal.") The Great Reset went the way of the coronavirus. Build Back Better has turned into Break Back Faster. All of that nonsense is dying a long and painful death on the ashes of the former Ukraine. A big chunk of the old world order fell off the landing gears of a jet taking off from Kabul, Afghanistan. The rest will be swept away when the Kiev regime finally keels over and dies. </div><div><br /></div><div>Even thoroughly Westernized countries are discovering, one by one, that the American way is a road to nowhere. By now, the question of maintaining Western unity amounts to an age-old question: "If all your friends jump off a cliff, would you jump too?" </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-38413459884766487212022-06-19T11:39:00.003+02:002022-06-19T11:39:55.460+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Does the five-stage collapse model still make sense?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">It's been 14 years since I wrote the article "<a href="http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"><span class="s1" style="color: #f15f2c;">The Five Stages of Collapse</span></a>" which I subsequently turned into a book, which, in turn, was published in a dozen languages. The idea was generally well received. It was a way of systematizing what to most minds was and is an unpredictable and chaotic process. It was also an idealization (which is engineering-speak for a gross oversimplification made for the sake of explaining a concept or making a quick, although inaccurate, calculation).</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I based my five stages of collapse (financial, commercial, political, social and cultural) on Elizabeth Kübler-Ross's five stages of the grieving process (denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance) but the similarity is superficial: yes, there are five of them and yes, they are sad things; count them and weep. But then it is also like the now outdated waterfall model of software development (gather requirements, write design, code, test/debug, launch)—and, again, weep, because by the time you are done the requirements most definitely will have changed.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">While weeping profusely and cursing their fate, software project managers came up with some palliative measures: phased development, beta versions, soft launches, etc. But in the end the fashion shifted to agile development, where development teams implement a limited set of features by a certain deadline, then repeat. As requirements change and new features are grafted on top of old, the software accumulates cruft, or scar tissue, in the form of dead code, huge bloated libraries of functions that are barely used, other gross inefficiencies and generally stupid ways of doing things. All of these have to be removed through a painstaking process called refactoring, which grows ever more complex and error-prone over time.<span></span></span></p><!--more--><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Eventually the software system forms a big ball of mud where subtle bugs are lurking everywhere and everything is connected to everything else in inexplicable ways. It is then time to rewrite the whole system from scratch, but since by then nobody fully knows what this software is supposed to do any more, this cannot be done either. And then it's time for the project managers to go back to weeping profusely while cursing their fate.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I would like to develop a more agile model of collapse than the rather rigid framework of the five stages, based on examining synergies of decay and ecosystems of collapse. In the meantime, the staged model of collapse still seems to have merit:</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">1. Financial. At this very moment, the entire US financial establishment is on the verge of system failure. Printing huge quantities of dollars, half of which are held outside the US, while keeping interest rates at below zero (adjusted for inflation) has steered the Federal Reserve into a cul de sac of its own creation. It is now attempting to raise interest rates by tiny amounts (less than by 1% at a go) while producer price inflation is already raging at 20% and is ready to burst through to the consumer market.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">2. Commercial. Meanwhile, corporations have loaded up on zero-interest debt, which they have used to buy up their own shares to keep their valuations high (in turn, allowing them to load up on even more debt) and now every tiny uptick in interest rates sends a giant wave of pain throughout the commercial realm as debt service costs swallow up revenues and drive companies into bankruptcy. As more and more corporations find it impossible to continue functioning given high producer inflation and high debt service costs, people begin to experience shortages of many essential products such as baby food and feminine hygiene items while surging gasoline prices cause waves of pain and anger to surge through the population.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">3. Political. This anger shows up in opinion polls and, in due course, at the polls, making it necessary to continue making a complete mockery of democratic processes in order to keep in power the self-elected, deeply unpopular and systemically corrupt political elite. Large infusions of totalitarian ideology, in the form of cancel culture and political imprisonment, and of political misdirection (blaming it all on Putin) round out the ghastly tableau of political dysfunction</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">4. Social. Since it has become traditional to divide and conquer the populace using hot button issues such as abortion and gun control (with pedophilia and child castration recently added to spice up the mix), the populace is increasingly finding itself at war with itself, self-segregating along ideological lines. Speaking of ideology, the entire populace, political and corporate elites included, have been heavily brainwashed by free market fundamentalist ideology, making it impossible for them to understand and to come to terms with their predicament. Having absorbed Milton Friedman's idiotic dictum that "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon..." they are incapable of understanding the meaning of the term "structural inflation," which is what they are facing now. They listen with numb incomprehension to news that inflation in Russia is now at 0% (in spite of a minor running skirmish in the Ukraine and sanctions-shmanctions from hell) and, as you may have guessed, blame Putin. None of them is capable of understanding a simple fact: the only force able to reign in structural inflation is... the government, by subsidizing or nationalizing key industries. "Well, certainly not this government!" many people would explain, and they would be correct; the Russian, the Chinese or the Indian government—certainly; the US government—not so much, you know. So, what choice is there? Why, to reenact the Civil War, of course! This time, it would be not so much to preserve the Union as to break it up.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">5. Cultural. As I wrote back in 2018, in the USA and, to various extents, in different parts of the European Union: an attempt to undermine and destroy cohesive society and common culture ahead of the coming financial, commercial and political collapse. It may seem like an odd thing to strive for, but consider this: if society and culture are destroyed ahead of time, then when collapse comes there is no intact community of humans left to observe it and understand what is happening. With everyone’s reasoning abilities sufficiently hampered, it will be trivial to diffuse blame when the rest of the collapse sequence occurs, to get the people to blame themselves or to scapegoat each other, or to simply ignore it because most of the people have bigger problems than collapse, be it their dysfunctional families, their various addictions, their religious zealotry or their extremist politics.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The approaches taken to destroying society and culture may seem disparate and lack a unity of purpose… until you understand that their purpose is to destroy society and culture. In education, the emphasis of training to take standardized tests squeezing out any real learning, supposedly motivated by the desire to be inclusive of disadvantaged, intellectually challenged minorities, creates cohort after cohort of young people no longer capable of independent, rational thought.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">• In politics, real concerns are replaced with fake ones, centered on bogeymen like “Russian aggression” or “Russian meddling,” reinforced endlessly through repetition without any actual evidence ever being shown, until taking reasoned, motivated political positions becomes impossible.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">• In social policy, the substitution of gender for sex, supposedly to fight discrimination but in fact denying biological imperatives, denatures human nature to the point where people become minimally useful to each other.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">• In immigration policy, the inclusion of a large population of migrants from incompatible cultures creates a sort of ethnic strife that cannot speak its name: pointing out that migrants from Islamic countries are responsible for a very large proportion of crime is considered politically incorrect and in Sweden has even been made illegal.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">• In international relations, we have witnessed a concerted effort to destroy national sovereignty and to render national boundaries meaningless, rendering once proud nations into groups of migrants who speak broken English.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">• In economics, every effort is being made to dismantle and suppress the power of organized labor, to open up the labor market to economic migrants, and to suppress local businesses in favor of transnational corporations.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To sum up, the waterfall model of collapse may still make sense, and more so in 2022 than in any of the previous years. The Federal Reserve will continue slow-walking its way to higher interest rates in an effort to reign in inflation, which, being structural rather than monetary, will only grow worse. But even slightly higher interest rates will empty the US Treasury and bankrupt scores of US corporations, further aggravating shortages of essential products. All of this will cause approval ratings of politicians to go from very low to negative. And then it will be time for society to self-destruct. Culture has already self-destructed, so let's not even worry about it any more.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: start;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So, are there any good news? Sure there are! Representatives of 69 countries are currently in attendance at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, many of them eager to sign deals for economic cooperation and development. There is a new, post-capitalist economic development model under development, in which the goal is not capital accumulation but societal well-being. Meanwhile, World War III is ending not with a bang but a whimper, being fought down to the last (Nazi) Ukrainian while the non-Nazis are waiting to run over and join the Russian side. The Ukraine is swiftly denazifying itself by sending all of its Nazis to places where they are being slaughtered using Russian artillery fire. As an added bonus, Russia set out to demilitarize just the Ukraine, but it is now demilitarizing all of NATO by destroying the weapons NATO is sending in to the Ukraine using its new rockets. Russia's grain harvest is set to be the largest ever, and this should help alleviate looming hunger in parts of the world that are friendly toward Russia. Yes, the good news all seem to be in Russia, while it's all looking pretty bad for the US, but please don't say you haven't been warned, because you have been warned, by me.</span></p></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-22879817994789608892022-05-31T17:41:00.005+02:002022-05-31T17:47:09.338+02:00Dimitry Orlov: De Odio<div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Lately Dmitry Anatolievich Medvedev, elder statesman of Russian politicum, has taken to issuing short encyclicals, a sort of urbi et orbi, that are really quite interesting because they let us look into the mindset currently shared by a large majority of Russians starting at the highest levels. Since this mindset clashes with the dominant narrative perforce endlessly repeated by all public figures in the West, it is deemed unacceptable and is steadfastly ignored. Is that a safe thing to do? Somehow I doubt it! Those who insist on operating with incomplete and faulty information make bad decisions and create bad outcomes for themselves. But it gets worse: while wallowing in the putrid bath of predicaments of their own making, they will discover that they have earned the Russians' hate and that the Russians have been planning to take revenge on them.<span></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Medvedev's words are like a subzero arctic gale blowing toward you from the boundless frozen tundra of Russian thought. While playing tag team with Putin—trading places as president and head of government—Medvedev positioned himself as a liberal pro-Westerner. We will never know how much of that was real (his opinions may have evolved over time as he was presented with new information) and how much of it was feigned (his task was to portray Russia as weak, helpless and dependent all the while it was furiously rebuilding and rearming itself). But this much we know for certain: he is not, by any stretch of the imagination, a pro-Western liberal any more.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">His latest encyclical is presented below. The translation is my own.<span><a name='more'></a></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">ON HATRED</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">In the endless tango of economic sanctions against Russia, an important question has been somehow lost: against whom are they directed? Whom are the authors of these sanctions attempting to punish?</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">The president and the political and military leadership of the country? Obviously not, and the authors recognize this fact. None of us own foreign property or significant foreign interests. We do not travel abroad to recreate or to work.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Large business in Russia? Yes, they have sustained a certain amount of damage. They have been deprived of foreign property. But, honestly, these confiscations have been far from fatal for them. They will survive. They have plenty left in Russia—enough to last for them and for their descendants.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Who, then, are these sanctions against?</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">The inevitable conclusion is disgusting: these sanctions are directed against the people of Russia. No matter what platitudes are muttered by American and European [senior executive] grandmothers and grandfathers—that they are punishing our leaders while loving us regular citizens—this is clearly complete bullshit. What purpose is served by arresting the assets of the Russian Central Bank and other government assets? It's simple: the goal is to hurt the economy, crash the ruble, increase inflation, drive up prices in stores, and by so doing to lower the quality of life of the average Russian. What purpose do embargoes against Russian oil and gas serve? Same thing: to drive down Russian government revenues and to force the government to renege on its social obligations, including the indexation of incomes against inflation; to hurt Russian taxpayers, both urban and rural. Against whom are directed the airspace closures and the blocking of payment methods? Again, against regular citizens—to inconvenience them—not their mythical leaders, not the fat cats, but you specifically!</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">This conclusion is most discouraging, but it is, alas, inevitable. They hate us all! At the root of these decisions is hatred of Russia—of Russians, of all of its inhabitants; of our culture. Hence the attempts to "cancel" Tolstoy, Chekhov, Chaikovsky, Shostakovich. They hate our religion—hence their wish to hurt the Russian Orthodox Church and to sanction its patriarch. This is nothing new; it has been this way almost always. It was this way during the times of Alexander Nevsky (1221-1223), during the Time of Troubles (1598-1613) and during the War of 1812. And, obviously, during the 20th century, when the USSR lived under numerous sanctions. Not to mention the fact that during the 1930s the West wished that the USSR would perish in its battle against Hitler.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">This hatred is revolting and irrational. But that doesn't mean that we should put up with it. We just have to draw all of the necessary conclusions for the future, to remember about this attitude toward us. And to never forgive those who hate us. Never!</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph_OrIQn" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">This concludes this latest missive from our fearless leader. I have just one thing to add to it: the senior executive grandfathers and grandmothers that are so actively imposing sanctions against the Russian people don't just hate the Russians. They hate you too. And they want to see you dead. Draw your own conclusions, but I'd say that you and the average Russian are on the same side</div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-46046014178043301772022-05-31T08:32:00.000+02:002022-05-31T08:32:00.619+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Engineering World Hunger<div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">The latest fake Western narrative, emanating from some secretive tiny brain located, most likely, somewhere in suburban Virginia, is that Putin is responsible for looming world hunger because of the war in the Ukraine. "Putin Blocks Ukraine Grain Exports! World Hunger Looms!" screams the expertly concocted fake newspaper headline. A very simple analysis of the available numbers is enough to prove that this narrative is a fake.</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">In 2021 Russia and the Ukraine together supplied the world market with 75% of its sunflower oil, 29% of barley, 28% of wheat and 15% of corn. Almost 50 countries depend on Russia and the Ukraine for at least 30% of their wheat, of which 26 depend on them for more than half. Last year's grain harvest in the Ukraine was unprecedentedly huge: 107 million tonnes, of which, in round numbers, there was 33 million of wheat, 40 million of corn and 10 million of barley, surpassing the 2020 harvest by 22% in tonnage and by 23% in yield. Annual wheat consumption in the Ukraine is only around 4 million tonnes. Unsurprisingly, the Ukrainians decided to export 70 million tonnes. This was a forced decision: there is nowhere to store this amount of grain. The top 15 grain elevators, all foreign-owned, add up to less than 21 million tonnes. All of these elevators are in the center and west of the country and remain unaffected by Russia's Special Operation in the east.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">By July 1st of this year the Ukraine is hoping to export at most 47 million tonnes of grain. Could it possibly export more? No, it couldn't. And this has nothing to do with the evil Russians. In the respected opinion of the Ukrainian Grain Association and its head Nikolai Gorbachëv, the grain export capacity of Ukrainian ports is only around 1.2-1.5 million tonnes per month. They could summon every navy in the world to provide security, and they still wouldn't be able to ship more than 1.5 million tonnes per month. Nor does rail provide any sort of alternative. The route through Poland is complicated by a difference in rail gauge while hauling grain to the now largely disused Lithuanian port of Klaipeda would take it through Belarus. Sure, Alexander Lukashenko would be happy to allow such transit—as soon as the West lifts all sanctions against Belarus and compensates it for the losses they have caused. All that remains is road transport heading west, which is now being used very extensively, adding up to... just over 1 million tonnes over the past few months.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">To sum up, the Ukraine was completely unprepared for last year's bumper crop. Whatever resources it had to prepare for it were squandered on preparing for an epically unsuccessful military operation against its Russian eastern and southern provinces. And then it shot itself in both feet by mining the approaches to the port of Odessa. Not only that, but it mined them incompetently: some of the mines lost their anchors in a storm and are now drifting about the Black Sea, one making it as far as a sea lane near Bosphorus in Turkey.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Does this mean that because of these difficulties with Ukrainian grain exports the world is doomed to hunger? Oh, please! Even if the Ukraine successfully exports the remaining 11 million tonnes of wheat as it had planned, this wouldn't save anyone because that would be just 4% of world demand. Similarly with corn: global demand is 200 million tonnes while Ukrainian exports are generally around 30-35 million tonnes. So, let's concede that the Ukraine and the situation around it have nothing much to do with the looming threat of world hunger. What does it have to do with, then?</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Let's turn it over for a moment for those pro-Russian propagandists at The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. According to their experts, in February of 2022, before the start of Russia's operation in Eastern Ukraine, prices of agricultural products reached yet another peak, 2.2% above February of 2011 and 21% over 2021. This happened not because of Russia at all, but because of pandemic-related money printing and high prices for energy, fertilizer and other agricultural resources. In addition, since the beginning of the military action in the Ukraine, 23 countries have imposed strict limits on agricultural exports. Most significant among them is India, which forbade grain exports because of a terrible drought.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">The only thing for which Russia can be said to be responsible is for restricting its exports of certain fertilizers, which it did to protect the supplies of its farmers. In 2020, Russia was the leading exporter of nitrogen fertilizes, second-largest of potassium and third-largest of phosphorus. The world market is now short of about a quarter of its fertilizer needs, and if this problem isn't fixed, hunger is indeed inevitable for many countries. But even here Russia is only partially to blame: it was anti-Russian sanctions that caused very high prices for natural gas, which is the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">To conclude: some idiots decided that using Covid as an excuse to litter the planet with helicopter money, smashing the European natural gas market, imposing "sanctions from hell" on Russia and then blaming it all on Russia is, somehow, a winning strategy. Well, idiots, is it? To top it all off, there is now a severe wheat flour shortage in the yet-to-be-liberated parts of the former Ukraine: what there is for sale there has been imported from Turkey! Is this idiocy contagious?</div><div><br /></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-82468966745308639772022-05-23T16:55:00.003+02:002022-05-23T16:55:26.969+02:00Dimitry Orlov: The Secret American Plan to Make Russia Great Again<div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">It is generally a good idea to avoid ascribing nefarious intent to actions explained by mere stupidity. But this is a case where mere stupidity cannot possibly explain the long, steady procession of foreign policy errors spanning three decades, all of them specifically aimed at strengthening Russia. It is not possible to argue that a surplus of hubris, ignorance, greed and political opportunism and a deficit of competent foreign policy analysts can produce such a result, for that would be essentially the same as arguing that some monkeys armed with drills, mills and lathes can produce a Swiss watch. But the only alternative would be to claim that there is a network of Kremlin's agents ensconced deep within the bowels of the American Deep State and that they are all working in concert to advance Russia's interests while meticulously maintaining plausible deniability all the while and at all levels of the operation.<a name='more'></a></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">Ostensibly, the plan was to weaken and destroy Russia; but then, following the Soviet collapse, Russia was weakening and destroying itself very well all by itself, no intervention needed. What's more, every US effort to weaken and destroy Russia has made it stronger; had there existed even a most rudimentary feedback mechanism, so vast a discrepancy between policy goals and policy results would have been detected and adjustments would have been made. Superficially, this may be explained by the nature of America's sham-democracy, where each administration can blame its failures on mistakes made by the previous administration, but the Deep State remains in power throughout, and it would simply be forced to admit to itself that there is a problem with the plan to weaken and destroy Russia after a few cycles of this unfolding fiasco. The fact that it hasn't detected any such problem brings us full circle, back to the suspicion that there are Putin's agents toiling tirelessly deep within the Deep State.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">But that's pure conspiracy theory and we shouldn't want to go anywhere near that. Suffice to say, there is at present no adequate explanation for what happened. After the Soviet collapse, very little was needed to speed along the collapse of Russia itself. But none of these steps have been taken, and the steps that were taken (with the ostensible goal of weakening and destroying Russia) have done the exact opposite. Why? Below are listed 10 of the most successful initiatives of what appear to be a US Deep State MRGA campaign. If you have an alternative explanation, I'd like to hear it.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">1. If Russia were immediately accepted into the World Trade Organization (which it wanted to join) it would have been swamped with cheap imports, destroying all of Russian industry and agriculture. Russia would simply sell oil, gas, timber, diamonds and its other resources and buy whatever is needed. Instead, the US and other WTO members spent 18 years negotiating Russia's entry into the organization. By the time it joined, in 2006, very little time remained before the financial collapse of 2008, after which time the WTO hasn't been too much of a factor.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">2. If Russia were immediately granted visa-free travel to the West (as it wanted) most working-age Russians would have readily diffused out of Russia, leaving behind a population of orphans and the elderly, much as has happened with contemporary Ukraine. After losing much of its productive population, Russia would not have posed any sort of economic or military threat. Instead, Russia was never granted visa-free travel and instead faced restrictions that have only increased over time. By now most Russians have internalized the idea that they are simply not wanted in the West and that they should seek their fortune back home.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">3. After the Soviet collapse, Russia itself collapsed into a loose mosaic of regional centers. Many of them (Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Urals Republic, Chechnya) entertained notions of secession. Left untouched, Russia would have devolved into a loose confederation with no ability to formulate joint foreign policy. Instead, resources and mercenaries were pumped into Chechnya, turning it into an existential threat to Moscow's authority and forcing it to become militarily assertive. The fact that Chechen volunteers are now fighting on the Russian side in the Ukraine underscores the failure of America's Chechnya policy.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">4. If, following the Soviet collapse, NATO simply recognized that the threat it was intended to counter no longer existed and either dissolved or simply became quiescent, Russia would never have thought it necessary to rearm itself. Indeed, Russia was happily cutting up its ships and missiles for scrap metal. Instead, NATO saw it fit to bomb Yugoslavia (for a made-up humanitarian reason) and then to relentlessly expand eastward. These actions have communicated most adequately the message that it wasn't the USSR, and Communism, that the West opposed but Russia itself. And while, by the time the 1990s rolled around, not too many Russians were eager to fight and die for the greater glory of communism, rising to the defense of Motherland is an entirely different story.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">5. If Russia's near-abroad were simply left alone, Russia would never have considered venturing outside of its already vast and underpopulated territory. But then came a provocation: acting with US sanction, Georgian forces attacked Russian peacekeepers in South Osettia during the Beijing Olympics of 2008, forcing Russia to react. The fact that Russia could demilitarize Georgia in just a few days was a major confidence boost and taught it that NATO and NATO-trained forces are soft and squishy and not much of a problem. Russian territory expanded to include South Ossetia, with Abkhazia thrown in as an added bonus, paving the way for further territorial expansion (Crimea, Donbass, Kherson... Nikolaev, Odessa...).</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">6. If the US left alone Syria, a close Russian ally for close to a century, Russia would not have expanded into the Mediterranean region. As it is, Syrian government invited Russia to help it turn the tide in its war against US-supported ISIS and Russia destroyed ISIS with the help of a rather small contingent of air-and-space forces at just one airbase. The action in Syria has showcased modern Russian weapons systems and has led to a 20-year backlog in weapons orders from around the world. What's more, Russia's allies around the world know that if the US/NATO, or their mercenaries, give them any trouble, all they have to do is whistle and Moscow will rush in with their precision bombs and neatly stack the corpses.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">7. After the 2014 Kiev putsch and the re-accession of Crimea, US/Western sanctions were immensely helpful in helping jump-start a large-scale program of import replacement, rejuvenating both Russian industry and agriculture. Russia is now largely self-sufficient in food and a major food exporter. Its position as the world's main breadbasket will be further improved by the addition of Eastern and Southern Ukrainian "black earth" regions of uniquely fertile land. The sanctions were accompanied by speculative attacks on the ruble which drove its value down from 30 to the dollar to 60 (where it stands today) making Russian products much more competitive internationally and stimulating foreign trade.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">8. The endless hollow threats to block Russia from using the SWIFT interbank messaging system have prompted Russia to create its own payment system, which is now integrated with China's. The arrest of the $300 billion Russian sovereign wealth fund that was held on deposit in Western banks, along with freezing the funds of Russian oligarchs, have taught Russians not to trust Western banks and to avoid keeping their money abroad. All of these hostile actions in the finance space have paved the way for a rather measured response that has instantly made the ruble the most valuable and stable currency on the planet, leaving the dollar and the euro vulnerable to hyperinflation.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">9. The eight-year war waged by the Ukrainian army, with unquestioning US/NATO support, against the Russian civilian population in the Donbass, has produced a very specific understanding throughout Russia's population: that the West wants to exterminate it. When the Ukrainians then declared that they want to build nuclear bombs, and when it was discovered that Pentagons bioweapons labs in the Ukraine were working on creating pathogens specifically targeting Russians, and when, finally, it became clear that it was not just the Ukrainians but all of NATO was behind it, that the Ukrainians-plus-NATO were poised to launch an all-out attack, Russia pre-empted it by launching its own Special Operation. Cynical as this may seem, the previous eight-year shelling of buildings full of old people, women and children, shown live on Russia's nightly news but steadfastly ignored in the West, was instrumental in producing approval ratings for the Special Operation that has reached 76%, with similar ratings for Putin, his government and even many of the regional governments. Now that, Western arms shipments notwithstanding, the Ukrainian military is being whittled away at a rate that will finish it off in approximately 20 days (the calculated "Day Z"), Russia is poised to emerge as an outright victor in World War III which, just like the Cold War, which it had lost, was barely even fought. This will restore Russia's military's mystique of being perpetually victorious.</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">10. Finally, Russia should be grateful for the lavish funds provided over the years by the US and the collective West in support of free speech and freedom of the press in Russia, by which is meant pro-Western propaganda. First, it did help liberate Russia's media space, to a point that now Russia is much more open to freedom of self-expression than any of the European countries or the US, with barely a hint of corporate censorship or cancel culture that are rampant in the West. Second, so ham-handed and overbearingly dumb was the Western propaganda onslaught that the Russians, after processing it for some years, now openly laugh at the pro-Western narrative, and opinion research agencies report Russian support for pro-Western policies only in trace amounts. The process was helped by the sheer ludicrousness of various developments in the West: cancel culture, MeToo, LGBT, child sex change operations, promotion of pedophilia and all the rest, which produced a wave of revulsion. This 180º reversal, from overwhelmingly pro-Western opinions of the early 1990s to the current situation, are a crowning achievement of the entire three-decade-long Deep State campaign to Make Russia Great Again (MRGA).</div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;">I do not wish to argue that the existence of MRGA within the US Deep State is demonstrably, provably true. But I urge you to follow Arthur Conan Doyle's famous dictum that "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth" and let me know what you come up with</div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5718465607520193683.post-38424331295843308612022-05-23T11:02:00.000+02:002022-05-23T11:02:19.471+02:00Dimitry Orlov: Trolling the Pentagon<h1 class="Post_title_G2QHp" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 28px; line-height: 35px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px 15px;"><br /></h1><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">According to hearings held recently by the US Congress, the Pentagon has accumulated quite a bit of evidence of something or other of an extraterrestrial origin: sightings of aircraft or spacecraft that behave in ways that defy both current technology and, possibly, the laws of physics. Things got really interesting when it turned out that these extraterrestrials had disabled some number of US nuclear missiles. At that point the meeting was hastily adjourned and reconvened in a top-secret format later.<span><a name='more'></a></span></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Pentagon's best and brightest being confused by some puzzling evidence is neither here nor there. On the other hand, the idea that extraterrestrials would brave the vastness of interstellar space just to troll a bunch of Pentagon knuckleheads seems quite outlandish. An obvious question to ask is, Who would want to troll the Pentagon, posing as extraterrestrials, while putting US nuclear arsenal out of commission? Why, of course, that would be the Russians!</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">What evidence can I present in support of this claim. Why, none at all, of course. I know nothing, and if I did, I wouldn't tell you because that would be treasonous of me. But what I can do is tell you a story.</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Once upon a time—a relatively short time ago, actually—some Russian engineers were drinking beer and bragging about their various technological exploits. One of them happened to be some sort of top-secret government space scientist. A question arose: Why are there so many Russian military satellite launches that are considered "test launches" and that don't seem to result in anything useful? And here's the answer: these satellites carry gamma ray guns, a.k.a. directed energy weapons, but they aren't designed to directly blow anything up. They are fine-tuned for just one task: turning weapons-grade plutonium into non-weapons-grade plutonium. These gamma ray guns are just one of the applications of "new physical principles" that Putin keeps bragging about in public. Once in a while one of these satellites zaps some bit of US nuclear arsenal and then keeps on orbiting.</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">It is well known that the US has lost the ability to make weapons-grade plutonium, so once the current US nuclear arsenal can be counted on to make a giant kaboom, that will put an end to Russian fears of a US nuclear attack. What's more, once the message sinks in that the US no longer has a reliable nuclear arsenal, Russia would be able to make the US behave and stop bothering the rest of the planet. Russia could turn Washington, DC and the surrounding few thousand square kilometers into a large glass plate using just a single Sarmat launch and not fear any significant retribution.</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Is any of this true? Of course not! It's the extraterrestrials, I tell you! Why shouldn't you believe the Pentagon's experts, who spend hundreds of billions of dollars to keep you safe... from extraterrestrials? You certainly shouldn't trust the words of a Russian rocket scientist who had a few too many and inadvertently spilled some of the beans.</span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"></div><div class="BlockRenderer_paragraph__U1vJ" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #242b2c; font-family: Inter, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px 15px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Oh, by the way, that Russian rocket scientist mentioned that the entire program was due to be terminated sometime around the end of 2021 because by then its mission will have been completed.</span></div>Armando Fernández Steinkohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05113303979918537383noreply@blogger.com0